Tread Lightly into This Sector The housing market enters a recession … don’t expect prices to drop much … checking in on our ITB homebuilders trade … be wary in the short-term While there’s debate about whether the economy is in a recession, there’s one sector that officially fits the bill… Housing. From Robert Dietz, Chief Economist at the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB): Tighter monetary policy from the Federal Reserve and persistently elevated construction costs have brought on a housing recession. Yesterday, we learned that the National Association of Home Builders|Wells Fargo Housing Market Index dropped 6 points this month to 49. The index has now seen eight straight monthly declines. The word “recession” comes into play due to the sub-50 reading. Anything about 50 is positive, anything below is negative. This negative reading is the first one since the start of the Covid pandemic. Prior to that, there hasn’t been a negative reading since June 2014. Meanwhile, this morning we learned that U.S. homebuilding fell to the lowest level in nearly one-and-a-half years.