Your Last Minute FOMC Preview: Here Is What The Fed Will Say And How Traders May React
Your Last Minute FOMC Preview: Here Is What The Fed Will Say And How Traders May React We previously laid out not one but two lengthy FOMC previews ( here and here ), so for those who got the TL|DR vibes here today''s final quick and dirty snapshot of what the Fed will say and what the market will do in response. First, while a 75bps rate hike is assured (the Fed did not have Nick Timiraos prepare markets for either 100bps or 50bps today), there will be no summary of economic projections at this FOMC, and thus the Fed’s statement will be much more closely parsed for its intent on the evolving rate trajectory. Here is what traders will be looking out for, according to Bloomberg''s Ven Ram: Acknowledging signs of weakness: The Fed is likely to tweak the language at the top to concede that the economy is showing signs of stress. Watch out for any changes to the statement, “The committee is highly attentive to inflation risks.” The operative part of the statement isn’t likely to contain any major surprises Watch for any signs of dissent to the 75-basis point move: there will likely be one or two: There is of course the gaping spread between the Fed''s own hawkish dot plot and the market''s increasingly more dovish forecast which now see the terminal rate dropping to mid-2% by late 2023, about 100bps below the Fed''s own forecasts.
Your Last Minute FOMC Preview: Here Is What The Fed Will Say And How Traders May React
Your Last Minute FOMC Preview: Here Is What The Fed Will Say And How Traders May React We previously laid out not one but two lengthy FOMC previews ( here and here ), so for those who got the TL|DR vibes here today''s final quick and dirty snapshot of what the Fed will say and what the market will do in response. First, while a 75bps rate hike is assured (the Fed did not have Nick Timiraos prepare markets for either 100bps or 50bps today), there will be no summary of economic projections at this FOMC, and thus the Fed’s statement will be much more closely parsed for its intent on the evolving rate trajectory. Here is what traders will be looking out for, according to Bloomberg''s Ven Ram: Acknowledging signs of weakness: The Fed is likely to tweak the language at the top to concede that the economy is showing signs of stress. Watch out for any changes to the statement, “The committee is highly attentive to inflation risks.” The operative part of the statement isn’t likely to contain any major surprises Watch for any signs of dissent to the 75-basis point move: there will likely be one or two: There is of course the gaping spread between the Fed''s own hawkish dot plot and the market''s increasingly more dovish forecast which now see the terminal rate dropping to mid-2% by late 2023, about 100bps below the Fed''s own forecasts.