Previewing The "Pivotal" August CPI Report: Expect A Miss... A 7-Handle Likely Sees A Very Strong Rally
Previewing The "Pivotal" August CPI Report: Expect A Miss… A 7-Handle Likely Sees A Very Strong Rally Ahead of tomorrow''s CPI print, Wall Street is split between those who say tomorrow''s inflation data is fully priced in and won''t have an impact on either stocks or the Fed which won''t ease until the breadth of price increases comes closer to the Fed’s 2% goal, and those who - echoing recent comments from the Fed - believe that the CPI is all that matters for the Fed''s upcoming rate decision, even though odds of a 75bps rate hike in two weeks time are just over 90%. Among the former is Goldman trader Matt Fleury who quotes Bullard''s comments from last week, namely that a good CPI report shouldn''t affect the Sept Fed call, and notes that "he is exactly right... We are priced for 75bps already. CPI doesn''t matter. People who don''t have enough length will tell you it does, but it doesn''t. Its priced. The asymmetry is higher here" and is why this traditionally bearish Goldman trader predicted that " we might be starting the Q4 chase early ." But while there may be disagreement over how the market or Fed will react to the CPI, there appears to be agreement that the August inflation print will miss to the downside (by a little or a lot), if mostly at the headline level thanks to plunging commodity prices (core inflation may actually shit higher as Americans shift spending on items such as food and gas into "core" inflation).
Previewing The "Pivotal" August CPI Report: Expect A Miss... A 7-Handle Likely Sees A Very Strong Rally
Previewing The "Pivotal" August CPI Report: Expect A Miss… A 7-Handle Likely Sees A Very Strong Rally Ahead of tomorrow''s CPI print, Wall Street is split between those who say tomorrow''s inflation data is fully priced in and won''t have an impact on either stocks or the Fed which won''t ease until the breadth of price increases comes closer to the Fed’s 2% goal, and those who - echoing recent comments from the Fed - believe that the CPI is all that matters for the Fed''s upcoming rate decision, even though odds of a 75bps rate hike in two weeks time are just over 90%. Among the former is Goldman trader Matt Fleury who quotes Bullard''s comments from last week, namely that a good CPI report shouldn''t affect the Sept Fed call, and notes that "he is exactly right... We are priced for 75bps already. CPI doesn''t matter. People who don''t have enough length will tell you it does, but it doesn''t. Its priced. The asymmetry is higher here" and is why this traditionally bearish Goldman trader predicted that " we might be starting the Q4 chase early ." But while there may be disagreement over how the market or Fed will react to the CPI, there appears to be agreement that the August inflation print will miss to the downside (by a little or a lot), if mostly at the headline level thanks to plunging commodity prices (core inflation may actually shit higher as Americans shift spending on items such as food and gas into "core" inflation).