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Russia has already cut off natural gas supplies to Europe via the Nord Stream 1 pipeline, driving European gas prices through the roof – with a knock-on effect on global gas markets. Who is to say it won’t use the energy weapon in oil markets, too? While Russia would never take its oil exports to zero, it could cut enough to drive up global prices. This “lower volume, higher price” strategy could keep Moscow’s oil revenues robust while inflicting pain on the G7 price cap architects. Russia also remains an integral member of the expanded OPEC+ group. The top members of the OPEC+ cartel are fed up with the West’s meddling and intervention in energy markets. Saudi Arabia is more aligned with Moscow than Washington today. There is no love lost between the Saudi-led cartel and the Biden administration or the European Union. Members of OPEC+ have already fired a shot across Washington's bow by announcing a modest cut in production for October. The cartel has warned more cuts could be in the cards, too. The cartel group also benefits from a “lower volume, higher price” strategy. So, what is the most likely outcome of the G7 price cap? Given that it is not practical or enforceable, it serves primarily as an added supply risk in an oil market that can ill afford another one – not with global spare production capacity so low. The result of the EU embargo on Russian energy exports and the price cap could be Russia sending more barrels to China, India, and, perhaps Turkey, using primarily Russian, Chinese, and Turkish flagged ships. Russia might offer discounts to sweeten the deal, but nothing near the cap set by the G7. What production Moscow can’t sell to third-party countries could instead be shut in, supporting higher oil prices while preserving the resource for later extraction. The International Energy Agency now expects Russian production to drop by 1.9 million barrels a day once the EU embargo goes into full effect. That may be the best-case scenario for the G7. The worst is full-blown Russian retaliation and the use of oil exports as a weapon, which could deliver a bullish shock to the market, pushing prices as high as $150 a barrel. Such a scenario could increase Russia’s oil income by as much as 50 percent while exacerbating global recessionary pressures. The risk of this market reaction cannot be overstated – especially since the Biden administration and EU and UK policymakers have proven themselves incompetent in the current energy crisis, and the price cap could be their coup de grace.
Russia has already cut off natural gas supplies to Europe via the Nord Stream 1 pipeline, driving European gas prices through the roof – with a knock-on effect on global gas markets. Who is to say it won’t use the energy weapon in oil markets, too? While Russia would never take its oil exports to zero, it could cut enough to drive up global prices. This “lower volume, higher price” strategy could keep Moscow’s oil revenues robust while inflicting pain on the G7 price cap architects. Russia also remains an integral member of the expanded OPEC+ group. The top members of the OPEC+ cartel are fed up with the West’s meddling and intervention in energy markets. Saudi Arabia is more aligned with Moscow than Washington today. There is no love lost between the Saudi-led cartel and the Biden administration or the European Union. Members of OPEC+ have already fired a shot across Washington's bow by announcing a modest cut in production for October. The cartel has warned more cuts could be in the cards, too. The cartel group also benefits from a “lower volume, higher price” strategy. So, what is the most likely outcome of the G7 price cap? Given that it is not practical or enforceable, it serves primarily as an added supply risk in an oil market that can ill afford another one – not with global spare production capacity so low. The result of the EU embargo on Russian energy exports and the price cap could be Russia sending more barrels to China, India, and, perhaps Turkey, using primarily Russian, Chinese, and Turkish flagged ships. Russia might offer discounts to sweeten the deal, but nothing near the cap set by the G7. What production Moscow can’t sell to third-party countries could instead be shut in, supporting higher oil prices while preserving the resource for later extraction. The International Energy Agency now expects Russian production to drop by 1.9 million barrels a day once the EU embargo goes into full effect. That may be the best-case scenario for the G7. The worst is full-blown Russian retaliation and the use of oil exports as a weapon, which could deliver a bullish shock to the market, pushing prices as high as $150 a barrel. Such a scenario could increase Russia’s oil income by as much as 50 percent while exacerbating global recessionary pressures. The risk of this market reaction cannot be overstated – especially since the Biden administration and EU and UK policymakers have proven themselves incompetent in the current energy crisis, and the price cap could be their coup de grace.
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