Google, Apple, and all the major car manufacturers are moving full steam ahead with self-driving car projects. Like it or not, the driverless car is coming, but when it will arrive in any meaningful way for the masses is up for debate.
Some pundits predict that the driverless car will take 50 years to gain enough of a foothold in the market to change the infrastructure of transportation. Others think it could be as soon as 10 years.
I used to think that sooner is quite possible, but I'm leaning toward 50 years or more because of the failure to recognize one important fact. The driverless/autonomous car will face stiff resistance once it starts to be genuinely realized.
Right now the driverless car is a novelty, and not getting in anyone's way. More importantly, it's not taking any jobs. Google has emphasized the novelty aspect by putting on the road some of the goofiest-looking vehicles ever designed. These are designed to be innocuous, smile-inducing, and non-threatening.
The non-threatening aspect is important because once those who drive for a living get a clue, these cars will be run off the road, sabotaged, torched, rammed, and blocked from streets.
There are 3.5 million professional truck drivers in the U.S. alone. There are nearly 1 million professional bus drivers. There are a quarter million taxi drivers and chauffeurs. We quickly get to 5 million jobs before we even get to UPS, FedEx, general delivery vans, the U.S. Post Office, florist delivery, Domino's Pizza, etc. It adds up to a lot of pro drivers. And let's not even get into Uber.
I can assure you that the Teamsters Union (1.3 million), among other groups, are going to take a hammer to these machines and set back implementation where it is needed most.
Right now only five states (California, Nevada, Florida, D.C, and Michigan) allow driverless cars on the road statewide. Nine states have passed laws banning them. If the Teamsters can get Wyoming or Nebraska plus Arkansas to ban the vehicles, then no autonomous truck can actually cross the country. The Center for Internet and Society at Stanford tracks the automated driving laws in a handy map.
These sorts of laws take decades to reverse, especially if it will cost jobs. Politicians will not do it. The laws against shipping a lone bottle of wine around the country shows how long these laws linger.
With any states prohibiting driverless cars, it will make high market penetration nearly impossible. If I cannot drive from California to Washington because Oregon will not allow my car, then I'd have to have a regular vehicle anyway. I could see a business where you drive to the Oregon border then drive onto a train with the car and ride on the rails until getting to Washington, but that is not a real solution.
The overall arguments for and against autonomous vehicles favor worldwide adoption. They save lives and provide a potential transportation infrastructure that would be very modern and save a lot of money. Read this outstanding run-down of the history of self-driving cars (it did not start with Google) if you want to talk about these vehicles intelligently.
Sadly, that article and pretty much every analyst fails to recognize the potential for worker backlash. So don't expect a driverless car to pull up near you anytime soon, or maybe even later.