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Brazil has favorable edaphoclimatic conditions for the cultivation of biomass for energy. On the other hand, the country plans to expand its thermal power park using fossil fuels, including coal. This paper investigates the potential of... more
Brazil has favorable edaphoclimatic conditions for the cultivation of biomass for energy. On the other hand, the country plans to expand its thermal power park using fossil fuels, including coal. This paper investigates the potential of cofiring eucalyptus from energy forests in power plants based on Brazilian low rank coal from the main deposits in the South of Brazil. The technical limits of adding woody biomass to a fluidized bed boiler running on Brazilian coal is evaluated along with the availability of this wooden biomass in the south of Brazil. Findings indicate that ash behavior is not expected to represent a technical limit to cofiring. The restrictions for biomass availability were based on the economic viability of transport and land availability for plantations of high productivity. Results indicate that biomass should be available within a radius of around 120 km, which is equivalent to approximately 4,500,000 ha. Only 0.4% of this area would be required to feed a thermal plant of 600 MWe with 30% biomass. However, in the vicinity of the coalfield in the state of Rio Grande do Sul, the land availability for plantations of high productivity rates is restricted by agroclimatic conditions and environmental zoning, so that only 14% of the total area are available for forest plantations.
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In continental countries, building materials are often moved over long distances from factories to building sites. This is especially important when quality and performance certification systems are required for the building materials’... more
In continental countries, building materials are often moved over long distances from factories to building sites. This is especially important when quality and performance certification systems are required for the building materials’ acquisition. In this scenario, the transportation phase tends to have a great contribution to building materials’ environmental impacts. Taking into consideration that countries such as China, India, and Brazil, i.e., continental countries, are expecting the largest future housing demand, the issue of transportation will have a crucial role in environmental impacts. Through a Brazilian case study, the present work investigates the potential environmental impacts of structural masonry made of concrete and ceramic blocks certified by the Brazilian Quality Program. A cradle-to-site Life-Cycle Assessment (LCA) is carried out while considering a country-level approach using data from the literature and Ecoinvent. The results show that ceramic blocks are pr...
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Closing the remaining emissions gap between Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) and the global emissions levels needed to achieve the Paris Agreement’s climate goals will likely require a comprehensive package of policy measures.... more
Closing the remaining emissions gap between Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) and the global emissions levels needed to achieve the Paris Agreement’s climate goals will likely require a comprehensive package of policy measures. National and sectoral policies can help fill the gap, but success stories in one country cannot be automatically replicated in other countries, but need to be adapted to the local context. Here, we develop a new Bridge scenario based on nationally relevant measures informed by interactions with country experts. We implement this scenario with an ensemble of global integrated assessment models (IAMs). We show that a global roll-out of these good practice policies closes the emissions gap between current NDCs and a cost-optimal well below 2 °C scenario by two thirds by 2030 and more than fully by 2050, while being less disruptive than a scenario that delays cost-optimal mitigation to 2030. The Bridge scenario leads to a scale-up of renewable energy (re...
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Closing the emissions gap between Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) and the global emissions levels needed to achieve the Paris Agreement’s climate goals will require a comprehensive package of policy measures. National and... more
Closing the emissions gap between Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) and the global emissions levels needed to achieve the Paris Agreement’s climate goals will require a comprehensive package of policy measures. National and sectoral policies can help fill the gap, but success stories in one country cannot be automatically replicated in other countries. They need to be adapted to the local context. Here, we develop a new Bridge scenario based on nationally relevant, short-term measures informed by interactions with country experts. These good practice policies are rolled out globally between now and 2030 and combined with carbon pricing thereafter. We implement this scenario with an ensemble of global integrated assessment models. We show that the Bridge scenario closes two-thirds of the emissions gap between NDC and 2 °C scenarios by 2030 and enables a pathway in line with the 2 °C goal when combined with the necessary long-term changes, i.e. more comprehensive pricing meas...
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The bottom-up approach of the Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) in the Paris Agreement has led countries to self-determine their greenhouse gas (GHG) emission reduction targets. The planned ‘ratcheting-up’ process, which aims to... more
The bottom-up approach of the Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) in the Paris Agreement has led countries to self-determine their greenhouse gas (GHG) emission reduction targets. The planned ‘ratcheting-up’ process, which aims to ensure that the NDCs comply with the overall goal of limiting global average temperature increase to well below 2 °C or even 1.5 °C, will most likely include some evaluation of ‘fairness’ of these reduction targets. In the literature, fairness has been discussed around equity principles, for which many different effort-sharing approaches have been proposed. In this research, we analysed how country-level emission targets and carbon budgets can be derived based on such criteria. We apply novel methods directly based on the global carbon budget, and, for comparison, more commonly used methods using GHG mitigation pathways. For both, we studied the following approaches: equal cumulative per capita emissions, contraction and convergence, grandfathering,...
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Bioenergy could play a major role in decarbonizing energy systems in the context of the Paris Agreement. Large‐scale bioenergy deployment could be related to sustainability issues and requires major infrastructure investments. It,... more
Bioenergy could play a major role in decarbonizing energy systems in the context of the Paris Agreement. Large‐scale bioenergy deployment could be related to sustainability issues and requires major infrastructure investments. It, therefore, needs to be studied carefully. The Bioenergy and Land Optimization Spatially Explicit Model (BLOEM) presented here allows for assessing different bioenergy pathways while encompassing various dimensions that influence their optimal deployment. In this study, BLOEM was applied to the Brazilian context by coupling it with the Brazilian Land Use and Energy Systems (BLUES) model. This allowed investigating the most cost‐effective ways of attending future bioenergy supply projections and studying the role of recovered degraded pasture lands in improving land availability in a sustainable and competitive manner. The results show optimizing for limiting deforestation and minimizing logistics costs results in different outcomes. It also indicates that recovering degraded pasture lands is attractive from both logistics and climate perspectives. The systemic approach of BLOEM provides spatial results, highlighting the trade‐offs between crop allocation, land use and the logistics dynamics between production, conversion, and demand, providing valuable insights for regional and national climate policy design. This makes it a useful tool for mapping sustainable bioenergy value chain pathways.
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Power generation megaprojects are central in energy planning and policy. However, many megaprojects fail to deliver the scale and efficiency aspirations initially expected. The purpose of this paper is to estimate the probability... more
Power generation megaprojects are central in energy planning and policy. However, many megaprojects fail to deliver the scale and efficiency aspirations initially expected. The purpose of this paper is to estimate the probability distribution function of cost overruns and delays in the construction of power generation projects, with a particular focus on mega hydroelectric dams recently built in Brazil. Results show that construction costs were, on average, 97.53% above the initial estimates. The distribution that best fits the hydroelectric power plants costs overruns is the gamma distribution. For the delays, the construction completion time had an average increase of 74.28%, or 3.5 years. The distribution that best fits the hydroelectric plants delays is the lognormal distribution. The essential statistical message obtained in this paper is that megaprojects fail to deliver the economies of scale embedded in large projects because the exposure to risk is disproportionate to the financial economies they can generate. Decision makers should carefully evaluate whether "bigger is better".
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Cities play a fundamental role in reducing greenhouse gas emissions and advancing the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development. In this context, public authorities need tools to help in identifying the best set of available solutions for... more
Cities play a fundamental role in reducing greenhouse gas emissions and advancing the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development. In this context, public authorities need tools to help in identifying the best set of available solutions for the urban environment. Here, we developed an approach to help decision makers in evaluating sustainable solutions, considering aspects such as emission rate, economic attractiveness, job creation, and local competitiveness in an intersectoral fashion. To rank the best solutions, we developed a new methodology that links integrated assessment models (IAMs) to the available solutions at the Innovation Observatory for Sustainable Cities (OICS) database and applied it to Brazil. Our results show that the solutions with the greatest impact were often related to new technologies, for example, renewable energy, which depends on institutional and financial arrangements that are beyond the administrative capacity of the vast majority of municipalities. Despit...
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This data set includes global climate change mitigation scenarios as summarized by Riahi et al., 2021. The scenarios are developed as part of the ENGAGE project and were assessed in terms of the their investment implications (Bertram et... more
This data set includes global climate change mitigation scenarios as summarized by Riahi et al., 2021. The scenarios are developed as part of the ENGAGE project and were assessed in terms of the their investment implications (Bertram et al., 2021), their land-use dynamics (Hasegawa et al., 2021) as we all as with respect to their costs and benefits (Drouret et al., 2021). The scenarios include a current national policies scenario and an NDC scenario that depict relevant near-term GHG emission tends and targets. In the long-term, two types of CO<sub>2</sub> emission budgets are implemented, so called "net-zero budgets" and "end-of-century" budgets. The "net-zero-budget"<strong> </strong>scenarios assume climate policies that limit the remaining cumulative CO<sub>2</sub> emissions until net zero CO<sub>2</sub> emissions are reached. These scenarios limit the temperature overshoot and do not rely on global ne...
This work focuses on the investigation into the planning of renewable energy power plants in Brazil using the Concentrated Solar Power (CSP) technology. The main aim of the paper is to present an analysis of the planning process that can... more
This work focuses on the investigation into the planning of renewable energy power plants in Brazil using the Concentrated Solar Power (CSP) technology. The main aim of the paper is to present an analysis of the planning process that can be used as a basis of the development of a method to assess the Brazilian’s local manufacturing and supply chain capabilities in supporting the deployment of the CSP technology. The paper identifies areas in which the concerted efforts should be emphasized. For this, the paper will first discuss the key components of the chosen CSP technology (in this case the parabolic through). The manufacturing processes of these components will subsequently be analyzed and the key enabling technologies will be determined. The demands of electricity will be estimated using the System Advisory Model®, a modelling tool developed by the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL). An assessment method will finally be proposed to identify the potentials of the local ...
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Increasing temperatures will make space cooling a necessity for maintain comfort and protecting human health, and rising income levels will allow more people to purchase and run air conditioners. Here we show that, in Brazil, India,... more
Increasing temperatures will make space cooling a necessity for maintain comfort and protecting human health, and rising income levels will allow more people to purchase and run air conditioners. Here we show that, in Brazil, India, Indonesia, and Mexico income and humidity-adjusted temperature are common determinants for adopting air-conditioning, but their relative contribution varies in relation to household characteristics. Adoption rates are higher among households living in higher quality dwellings in urban areas, and among those with higher levels of education. Air-conditioning is unevenly distributed across income levels, making evident the existence of a disparity in access to cooling devices. Although the adoption of air-conditioning could increase between twofold and sixteen-fold by 2040, from 64 to 100 million families with access to electricity will not be able to adequately satisfy their demand for thermal comfort. The need to sustain electricity expenditure in respons...
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Many countries have implemented national climate policies to accomplish pledged Nationally Determined Contributions and to contribute to the temperature objectives of the Paris Agreement on climate change. In 2023, the global stocktake... more
Many countries have implemented national climate policies to accomplish pledged Nationally Determined Contributions and to contribute to the temperature objectives of the Paris Agreement on climate change. In 2023, the global stocktake will assess the combined effort of countries. Here, based on a public policy database and a multi-model scenario analysis, we show that implementation of current policies leaves a median emission gap of 22.4 to 28.2 GtCO2eq by 2030 with the optimal pathways to implement the well below 2 °C and 1.5 °C Paris goals. If Nationally Determined Contributions would be fully implemented, this gap would be reduced by a third. Interestingly, the countries evaluated were found to not achieve their pledged contributions with implemented policies (implementation gap), or to have an ambition gap with optimal pathways towards well below 2 °C. This shows that all countries would need to accelerate the implementation of policies for renewable technologies, while effici...
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Environmental Science, Air Quality, Energy Policy, Brazil, Coal, and 14 moreAir pollution, Medicine, Multidisciplinary, Electricity, Environmental Sciences, Humans, Airborne Particulates, Power Plants, Coal-fired Power Plants, Particulate Matter, Health Impacts, Environment, Air Pollutants, and Emission Standards
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Emissions pathways after COVID-19 will be shaped by how governments’ economic responses translate into infrastructure expansion, energy use, investment planning and societal changes. As a response to the COVID-19 crisis, most governments... more
Emissions pathways after COVID-19 will be shaped by how governments’ economic responses translate into infrastructure expansion, energy use, investment planning and societal changes. As a response to the COVID-19 crisis, most governments worldwide launched recovery packages aiming to boost their economies, support employment and enhance their competitiveness. Climate action is pledged to be embedded in most of these packages, but with sharp differences across countries. This paper provides novel evidence on the energy system and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions implications of post-COVID-19 recovery packages by assessing the gap between pledged recovery packages and the actual investment needs of the energy transition to reach the Paris Agreement goals. Using two well-established Integrated Assessment Models (IAMs) and analysing various scenarios combining recovery packages and climate policies, we conclude that currently planned recovery from COVID-19 is not enough to enhance societa...