Climate change, migration and socioecological crisis in the 11th century • „A Collapse of the Eastern Mediterranean“? – climate fluctuations, socio-political dynamics and migration in Western Afro-Eurasia (with some methodological considerations) • A „commercial revolution in Song China“? - climate fluctuations, socio-political dynamics and migration in Western Afro-Eurasia • Comparison and conclusion Byzantine Empire Fatimid Empire Ghaznavid Empire Byzantine Empire Ghaznavid Empire Fatimid Empire „The Collapse of the Eastern Mediterranean. Climate Change and the Decline of the East, 950-1072“ and the End of the „Golden Age“ of Classical Islam? (Ronnie Ellenblum, 2012) 2017 “This provocative study argues that many well-documented but apparently disparate events - such as recurrent drought and famine in Egypt, mass migrations in the steppes of central Asia, and the decline in population in urban centres such as Baghdad and Constantinople - are connected and should be understood within the broad context of climate change.” The solar Oort minimum and a higher frequency of weather extremes, 1020/1040-1080 7 Sunspots und climate changes Jan Hendrik Oort, 1900-1992 8 L SH H L H Medieval Climate Anomaly The North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) Little Ice Age 10 L SH H L H The North SeaCaspian-Pattern (NCP) and the Siberian High (SH) https://link.springer.com/content/pdf/10.1007 %2Fs704-002-8205-x.pdf Athens Istanbul Amorgos L SH H L H 15 16 Volcanic eruptions and climate forcing 17 Büntgen et al. 2020, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.dendro.2020.125757 “Archives of nature” (Christian Pfister) ARCHIVES Minimal temporal resolution (years) Maximum temporal capture (years) Information on Ice <1 1,00E+06 T, N, C, B, V, E, S Marine sediments 10 1,00E+08 T, C, B, E, M, P Limnial sediments <1 1,00E+05 T, B, E, P, V, C Loess 100 1,00E+06 P, B, E, V Dunes 100 1,00E+05 P, B Soils 100 1,00E+06 P, B Dripstones 1 1,00E+05 C, T, P Fluvial sediments 100 1,00E+04 P, B Tree rings <1 1,00E+04 T, P, B, V, E, S Pollen 1 1,00E+05 T, P, B Corals 1 1,00E+04 C, M, T, P Peats 100 1,00E+04 B Historical archives <1 5,00E+03 T, P, X, B, V, E, M, S, C T = temperature; E = fluctuations in the magnetic field of earth; P = precipitation; M = sea level changes; X = extreme events; V = volcanic eruptions; C = chemical composition of air and/or water; B = composition of biomass and vegetation; S = changes in solar irradiation After: F. MAUELSHAGEN, Klimageschichte der Neuzeit (Geschichte Kompakt). Darmstadt 2010 19 Proxy-data sites in the Eastern Mediterranean and East Asia Xoplaki et al., Human Ecology (2018) 46: 363–379 20 (2015) J. Chen et al. / Quaternary Science Reviews 107 Tree rings as climate archives From: Glaser, 2008 mostly cold and dry mostly cold and dry Tree rings as climate proxy for Austria, 1200-1500 CE 21 “Archives of society” (Christian Pfister) Direct data - Observations • Anomalies • Natural hazards • Weather conditions • Daily weather • Solar activity Indirect data – observations and measurements of organic phenomena • Plant phenology: periods of blooming and maturing, date and volume of harvest of cultivated plants • Volume and sugar content of vine and fruit harvests ARCHIVES OF SOCIETY After: Mauelshagen 2010 Direct data - Measurements • Air pressure • Temperature • Precipitation • Water level Indirect data – observations and measurements of nonorganic phenomena • High and low-water marks • Freezing of water bodies • Snow fall, snow coverage Indirect data – cultural phenomena • Supplicatory processions and other religious rituals (in case of drought, etc.) • Image material • Archaeological remains 22 The observation and measurement of natural phenomena: the Nile flood in Egypt http://lib.stat.cmu.edu/S/beran 23 Cluster of low Nile floods in the late 10th and 11th century and ENSO From: Ellenblum 2012 Banks of the Nile near Karima during a drought The arrival of the Fatimids in Egypt (969) and the regulation of grain trade in al-Fustat • The commander Jawhar entered [Egypt] at the head of the troops of the [Fatimid Caliph] al-Imam al-Muizz li-Din Allah and founded al-Qahirah. Among the matters he looked into was the question of prices. A number of millers were flogged, then paraded in public. He grouped the grain brokers in one place and issued orders that grain would be sold there exclusively. He also ordered that a single route would be followed to and from this grain market, so that even one qadah of wheat would not leave this market except under the supervision of Sulayman ibn Azza, the muhtasib. This famine lasted until the year 360 (970/971), during which epidemics worsened and diseases spread. • Al-Maqrizi p. 30-31 (transl. Allouche) The new Fatimid Palace city of Cairo since 969/973 CE Cairo´s and al-Fustat´s urban metabolisms in competition Ibn Ridwan (998-1061), physician in Cairo: “Cairo's lanes and streets are wider and cleaner than those of al-Fustat, with less dirt and rot. The inhabitants' drinking water mostly comes from wells (...). But since the water level of the wells of Cairo is just below the surface and the soil is permeable, inevitably some of the rubbish from the latrines seeps into the wells. (...) Many inhabitants of Cairo also drink Nile water, especially when it fills the canal [at the time of the Nile flood]; but this water is drawn after it has passed al-Fustat and mixed with its effluent (....) [The inhabitants of al-Fustat] throw their dead pets - cats, dogs and others - on the streets and alleyways where they decompose and their decay mixes with the air. They also have the habit of throwing the excrement and carrion of their animals into the Nile from which they drink, and also the filth of their latrines flows into the river. Sometimes the water stagnates; then they drink mixed with the water this manure.” (Transl. Halm 2003, 24 and 32) The low Nile flood, the crises of 1023-1025 CE and 1051-1055 CE, the Caliph and other big players on the decentralized speculative grain market of Cairo (150 granaries) The flood of the Nile was bad five years later under his administration, and especially in the year 1055 CE. At that time only sufficient quantities were found in the granaries of the state for the supply of the officials of the palaces, the royal kitchen, and the various services, no more than this (…). For the people it was a very painful crisis; bread became a rare commodity. Al-Maqrizi p. 21; Telelis nr. 475 The „Great Calamity“ in Fatimid Egypt, 1064-1074 climatic anomalies within a bundle of factors “During the reign of [Caliph] al-Mustanṣir occurred the famine that had an atrocious effect and left a horrid memory. It lasted seven years and was caused by the weakness of the [Caliph´s] authority, the deterioration of the affairs of state, the usurpation of power by the military commanders, the continuous strife among the Bedouins, the failure of the Nile to reach its plenitude, and the absence of cultivation of the lands that had been irrigated. This began in 457/1064-65. It resulted in rising prices and increased famine and was followed by an epidemic. The lands remained uncultivated, and fear prevailed. Land and sea routes became unsafe, and travel became impossible without a large escort; otherwise, one would be exposed to danger.” al-Maqrīzī, Ighāthah, transl. Allouche, p. 37 The stabilisation of the grain market and the regime (Badr al-Ǧamālī, 1074) and the contraction of Fatimid rule to Egypt The vizier [Badr al-Ǧamālī] brought from prison a group of people who had been sentenced to death and dressed them in white cloaks, round turbans and shawls. Then he assembled the grain merchants and the bakers and held a great council. He ordered a representative of this group to be brought in, and the person entered in splendid attire. When he stood in front of the vizier, he spoke to him: "Woe to you! Wasn't it enough for you that you cheated the caliph and stole the money of the state, that you caused the ruin of the provinces and destroyed the crops, leading to a crisis of the state and the ruin of the population? Chop the head off! ' His command was carried out on the spot, and the dead man lay before him. Then the vizier ordered another to be brought, saying to him: “How dare you break the decree forbidding the hoarding of grain, and continue to act against the law so that others in yours footsteps and thus brought about the downfall of the population? Head off!” This order was carried out on the spot. Then he ordered a third person to be brought in. The assembly of merchants, millers and bakers stood up and said: “O commander! Enough of it! We gather the grain and turn the mills to bring bread to the market. We will lower the prices for the populace and sell bread at one dirham per ratl.” The vizier replied, “The populace will not be satisfied with that.” They replied, “Two ratl.” The governor agreed to this price after asking it had asked. They fulfilled their promise while God made it easier for his creatures and swelled the Nile. This ended the crisis: people cultivated the land and prosperity followed. al-Maqrīzī, 39 (transl. Allouche) 30 Between climate and society: disasters as "hybrid socio-natural events" Disasters are “both culturally constructed and physically pronounced. On the one hand, although they were cultural constructs, they could not be detached from their physical existence. Nature was and is more than a social structure without reference to the material world. On the other hand, nature was an actor who influenced the environment even without human perception. (Still) disasters had a social context because human actions could affect the intensity and frequency of disasters. " Krämer 2015, 203 From: R. Schreg, Siedlungsökologie und Landnutzungsstrategien im byzantinischen Osten, in: H. Baron – F. Daim (eds.), A Most Pleasant Scene and an Inexhaustible Resource. Steps towards a Byzantine Environmental History. Mainz 2017, 17-34. Why there is hunger? Food EntitlementDecline (FED) and Amartya Sen (* 1933) The different dimensions of hunger crises and the unequal distribution of risks within a society due to unequal vulnerabilities and buffer options (and the share in the decision on the distribution of the latter) Beyond simple push and pull factors: the complexity of migration decisions The migration of the Banū Hilāl from Egypt to Tunesia (1046/1047) and the danger of using only one type of palaeoclimatic archive 35 Apex and crisis of the Byzantine Empire in the 11th century after Basil II (d. 1025) 1025 1081 36 E. Xoplaki et al., The Medieval Climate Anomaly and Byzantium. Quaternary Science Reviews (data from Telelis, 2004) 37 Aggregating „data“ and quantifying the frequency of calamities in the written sources Haldon et al. 2014 38 Selected climate anomalies and epidemics in Byzantium and adjacent polities, 1025-1050 Natural phenomena as portents and narrative instruments 2020, 970 pp. “This star is called a comet by several scholars. Not always, but mostly it appears either when a king dies or when a disaster strikes an area. He is recognized and interpreted as follows: when his head appears as a tail with a luminous diadem, he announces the death of a king; but when he wields a sword, glows red, or throws a dark tail, he shows great harm to the homeland. That's how it appeared before the plague in the Arvernerland and hovered over the region for a whole year (...). And even before King Sigibert [575] died, he showed himself to many with his tail.” Gregory of Tours, De cursu stellarum ratio, 34 (Wozniak 2020, 94) "Comets are flaming hairy stars that appear repeatedly to foretell overthrow of kingship or plagues, wars, storms, or even heat.“ Beda Venerabilis, De Natura rerum, 24 (Wozniak 2020, 94) 41 Osiris , 1998, Vol. 13, Beyond Joseph Needham: Science, Technology, and Medicine in East and Southeast Asia (1998), pp. 213-237 42 John Scylitzes (ca. 1040-1100) and portents and calamities in the reigns after Basil II: Emperor Romanos III Argyros (1028-1034) and the confinement of internal migration “On Friday, 28 July, at the second hour of the night, a star fell from south to north, lighting up the whole earth, and shortly afterwards there were reports of disasters afflicting the Roman empire (…). This year [1032] famine and pestilence afflicted Cappadocia, Paphlagonia, the Armeniakon theme and the Honoriad, so grave that the very inhabitants of the themes abandoned their ancestral homes in search of somewhere to live. The emperor [Romanos III Argyros] met them on his return to the capital from Mesanakata [in central Asia Minor, to which a campaign had led him ] and, unaware of the reason for this migration, obliged them to return home, providing them with money and the other necessities of life. And Michael, who was then governing the church of Ankyra, performed virtuous works, sparing nothing which might procure the survival of the victims of famine and pestilence. On Sunday, 13 August, at the first hour of the night, AM 6540, there was a severe earthquake. The emperor came into the capital and Helena, his former wife, having died, he distributed many alms on her behalf. In that year on 20 February [1033] a star traversed from north to south with noise and commotion. It was visible until 15 March, and there was a bow above it. On 6 March, third hour, there was an earthquake.” John Scylitzes, Synopsis, Romanos III Argyros, 10–12, ed. Thurn, pp. 385, 52–386, 81; transl. Wortley, pp. 364–365 43 John Scylitzes (ca. 1040-1100) and portents and calamities in the reigns after Basil II: Romanos III Argyros (1028-1034) as crisis-manager “(…) On the seventeenth of February [1034], there was an earthquake and the cities of Syria suffered severely. (…) For some time, the eastern themes had been consumed by locusts, compelling the inhabitants to sell their children and move into Thrace. The emperor gave to every one of them three pieces of gold and arranged for them to return home. The locusts were finally carried away by a powerful wind, fell into the high sea off the Hellespont and perished. They were washed up onto the shore where they covered the sand of the beach. The emperor renovated the aqueducts which bring water into the city and also the cisterns which receive that water. He restored the leper house and every other hospice which had been damaged by the earthquake. In a word, every good work was his concern. But he was afflicted by a chronic disease; his beard and his hair fell out. It was said he had been poisoned by John, who later became orphanotrophos.” John Scylitzes, Synopsis, Romanos III Argyros, 17, ed. Thurn, p. 389, 54–69; transl. Wortley, pp. 367–68 44 John Scylitzes (ca. 1040-1100) and portents and calamities in the reigns after Basil II: Michael IV (1034-1041), Michael V (1041-1042) and John Orphanotrophos “But it was clearly shown from the outset that what had transpired was not pleasing to God. At the eleventh hour of Easter Day [14 April 1034] there was an unendurable hailstorm, so violent that not only the trees (fruit-bearing and otherwise) were broken down, but also houses and churches collapsed. Crops and vines were laid flat to the ground; hence there ensued a great shortage of all kinds of produce at that time. There was a falling star about the third hour of the night on the Sunday after Easter; the brilliance of its shining put all the stars into the shade and, for many, it looked like the rising sun. And the emperor [Michael IV] became possessed of a demon; those close to him, using fine phrases, called it a madness-causing disease, but it endured to the end of his life. He received no relief either by divine might or from doctors but was grievously tormented and tortured.” John Scylitzes, Synopsis, Michael IV, 2, ed. Thurn, p. 393, 45–57; transl. Wortley, p. 371 Calamities and moral meteorology in John Scylitzes´ narrative on John Orphanotrophos “Because there was a drought and for six whole months no rain had fallen, the emperor’s brothers held a procession, John carrying the holy mandylion, the Great Domestic the Letter of Christ to Abgar, the protobestiarios George the holy Swaddling Bands. They travelled on foot from the Great Palace to the church of the exceedingly holy Mother of God at Blachernae. The patriarch and the clergy made another procession, and not only did it not rain but a massive hailstorm was unleashed which broke down trees and shattered the roof tiles of the city. The city was in the grip of famine so John purchased one hundred thousand bushels of grain in the Peloponnese and in Hellas; with this the citizens were relieved.” John Scylitzes, Synopsis, Michael IV, 10, ed. Thurn, p. 400, 39–49; transl. Wortley, pp. 377–78. 46 Calamities and moral meteorology in John Scylitzes´ narrative on John Orphanotrophos “Most of the time the emperor Michael resided at Thessalonike where he frequented the tomb of the wondrously victorious martyr Demetrios in the sincere hope of finding relief from his illness. He had nothing whatsoever to do with affairs of state other than those which were absolutely necessary; the administration and the handling of public business rested entirely on John’s shoulders and there was no imaginable form of impurity or criminality that he did not search out for the affliction and mistreatment of the subjects. It would be a Herculean task to list them all. Everybody living under this grievous tyranny persisted in interceding with the Deity, appealing for some relief. God frequently shook the earth; the inhabited world was assailed by awesome and fearful [portents]: comets appearing in the sky, storms of wind and rain in the air, eruptions and tremblings on earth. In my opinion, these things presaged the forthcoming unparalleled catastrophe for the tyrants.” John Scylitzes, Synopsis, Michael IV, 21, ed. Thurn, p. 408, 51–63; transl. Wortley, pp. 383–84 47 The sightings of Halley's Comet in April-May 1066 in Byzantium and Western Europe – a “dis-aster”? Bayeux Tapestry The comet at the end of a long list of portents and (non-climatic) calamities in the history of Michael Attaleiates (ca. 1025-1085) “Before this year, in the month of September of the second indiction, on the twenty-third of that month [23 September 1063], during the second watch of the night, there was a sudden powerful earthquake, more frightening than any that had happened before, and it began in the western regions. It was so great in magnitude that it overturned many houses, leaving only a few undamaged. (…) In the regions of Macedonia, the coastal cities suffered more on that night than the others, I mean Rhaidestos and Panion and Myriophyton], where whole sections of the walls collapsed to their very foundations along with many houses, and many people died. In the Hellespont, Kyzikos was especially struck, where the ancient Greek temple was also shaken and most of it collapsed. (…) From that time on and for two years earthquakes continued to occur sporadically at various times, leaving mortal men speechless in wonder. (…) After the two-year period, an earthquake occurred that was larger than the frequent aftershocks, but smaller than the initial one. It happened at Nicaea in Bithynia and brought almost total devastation and ruin to the place. Its most important and large churches - the one founded in honor of the Wisdom of the Word of God, which was also the cathedral, and the one of the Holy Fathers, where the Council of the most Holy and Orthodox Fathers against Areios confirmed its decisions and where Orthodoxy was proclaimed openly to shine brighter than the sun-those churches, then, were shaken and collapsed as did the walls of the city along with many private dwellings. And on that day the shaking ceased. These events were earned by our sins and were surely caused by divine anger; but it seems also that they were a predictive sign of the invasion by that nation [the Seljuks], which I mentioned, and its destruction, for in divine signs it is possible to glimpse not only the things that we have already spoken about but also some things to come. During the course of the month of May of the fourth indiction [1066], a bright comet [Halley´s comet ] appeared after the sun had set, which was as large as the moon when it is full, and it gave the impression that it was spewing forth smoke and mist. On the following day it began to send out some tendrils and the longer they grew the smaller the comet became. These rays stretched toward the east, the direction toward which it was proceeding, and this lasted for forty days. From the month of October until the following May [1067], the emperor [Constantine X Dukas] was afflicted by illness, which wore him out and so he departed from this life.” Michael Attaleiates, History 15, 1–7, ed. and transl. Kaldellis/Krallis, pp. 160–67. Portents, (non-climatic) calamities and human (in)activity after the defeat at Manzikert (1071) under Michael VII Dukas and Nikephoritzes (1071-1078) Michael VII, Holy Crown of Hungary “In that year a number of portents were observed in the City of Byzas [Constantinople]. A three-legged chicken was born as well as a baby with an eye on its forehead (and having a single eye at that) and the feet of a goat. When it was exposed in the public avenue in the area of Diakonissa, it uttered the cries of a human baby. Two soldiers of the Immortals [a guard regiment] were struck by lightning in a public place close to the western walls of the City. Not only that but certain comets streaked across the sky. Meanwhile, because the east was being wasted by the barbarians there who were ruining and subjecting it, large multitudes were fleeing those regions on a daily basis and seeking refuge in the Imperial City [Constantinople], so that hunger afflicted everyone, oppressing them because of the lack of supplies. When winter arrived, because the emperor [Michael VII Dukas] lacked generosity and was extremely stingy, he offered no succour from the imperial treasuries or any other form of provident welfare either to those in office or to the people of the City, and so each person wallowed in his own misery, nor did he hold out an abundant hand that could assist the poor and provide them with daily provisions, for it is through these means that the poor are normally supplied with necessities. There were many, indeed countless deaths every day, not only among the refugees but also among the people of the City [Constantinople], so that their dead bodies were heaped both in the socalled porticos and in open spaces, and they were carried on stretchers, each one of which was often stacked with five or six bodies piled up in a random heap. Everywhere you saw sad faces and the Reigning City [Constantinople] was filled with misery. The rulers did not let up on their daily injustices and illegal trials, but acted as though the Romans were not being afflicted by anything out of the ordinary, be it foreign war, divine wrath, or poverty and violence oppressing the people; it was with such nonchalance that they practiced all their tyrannical impieties.” Michael 50 Attaleiates, History 26, 8–9, ed. and transl. Kaldellis/Krallis, pp. 384–87 The phoundax (grain trade monopoly) in Rhaidestos established by the logothetes tou dromou Nikephoros under Emperor Michael VII Doukas (1071-1078) and the narrative of Michael Attaleiates He thereby established a monopoly over this most essential of trade, that of grain, as no one was able to purchase it except from the phoundax. (…) now the harvest was brought in to the phoundax, as if to a prison. (…) The purchase of grain went from eighteen modioi per gold coin to only one. For from that moment on they monopolized not only the grain carts (…) but also all other goods the circulated in the vicinity. (…) He, then, farmed out the phoundax for sixty pounds of gold, and enjoyed the proceeds, while everyone else was hard-pressed by a shortage not only of grain but of every other good. For the dearth of grain causes dearth in everything else, as it is grain that allows the purchase or preparation of other goods, while those who work for wages demand higher pay to compensate for the scarcity of food. (…) As a result of the emperor´s planning or, rather, of Nikephoros´s evil designs, grain was in short supply and abundance turned into dearth. The people´s discontent increased. Mich. Att. 25, 4-6 (transl. Kaldellis – Krallis, p. 367373) Between climate and society: disasters as "hybrid socio-natural events" From: R. Schreg, Siedlungsökologie und Landnutzungsstrategien im byzantinischen Osten, in: H. Baron – F. Daim (eds.), A Most Pleasant Scene and an Inexhaustible Resource. Steps towards a Byzantine Environmental History. Mainz 2017, 17-34. Empires and imperial spheres in Europe and the Mediterranean, 1060 CE Pechenegs Normans Seljuks 53 The migrations of the Oghuz Turks, the Seljuks and the conquests in Iran and Iraq from 1040 onwards (Toghrul Beg in Baghdad 1055) Oghuz Qarakhanids Ghaznavids Buyids 54 The „Big Chill“ in 10th-11th cent. Central Asia and nomadic migrations Proxy data used by Bulliet 2009 The scenario of Bulliet and Ellenblum and its critics • • • J. Paul, Nomads and Bukhara. A Study in Nomad Migrations, Pasture, and Climate Change (11th century CE), Der Islam 93/2 (2016) pp. 495-531: “Paleoclimatic evidence is adduced, showing that there was climate change in the 10th-11th centuries, notably a cooling of the summer temperature and a marked desiccation. But winter temperatures remained more or less constant – no marked chilling of the winters took place. In all, the article rejects Bulliet’s causation chain and proposes that the Ghuzz-Seljuq migration into Transoxiana was due to political reasons rather than induced by climate change.” D. Tor, The Eclipse of Khurāsān in the Twelfth Century, Bulletin of the School of Oriental and African Studies 81/2 (2018) pp. 251-276: “The purpose of this article, therefore, is to reexamine what the primary sources reveal about the catastrophic cultural and political eclipse of Khurāsān in the mid-twelfth century, in order to demonstrate that this catastrophe was not due to “climate, cotton and camels” – in fact, Khurāsān was doing very well until the 1150s – but to concrete human agency and action: namely, the province's destruction by the rampaging Oghuz Turkmens after Sultan Sanjar had been taken captive by them in 1153, thus leading directly to the downfall of the Great Seljuq Sultanate.” Y. Frenkel, The Coming of the Barbarians: Can Climate Explain the Saljūqs’ Advance?, in Liang Emlyn Yang, Hans-Rudolf Bork, Xiuqi Fang, Steffen Mischke (eds.), SocioEnvironmental Dynamics along the Historical Silk Road, Cham 2019, pp. 261-274: „Again, I am arguing that the sources do not provide decisive evidence to support a meteorological interpretation as the prime explanation of the massive human movement across the Steppes/Iranian frontier during the eleventh century. The impression created by these accounts, briefly mentioned above, is that nomadic pressure and lawlessness combined with the governors’ strong hand are the prime cause of disability and social unrest (…).” 57 Climatic anomalies in the Khitan/Liao-Empire in East Asia in the 10th-12th centuries 58 Long term trends, economic and demographic growth and the accumulation of risks: the Northern Song in China, 960-1126 H. Zhang et al., The Asian Summer Monsoon: Teleconnections and Forcing Mechanisms—A Review from Chinese Speleothem δ18O Records. Quaternary 2019, 2(3), 26; https://doi.org/10.3390/quat2030026 59 The Bian river/canal and the capital of Kaifeng - up to 5.7 million shi (approx. 430,000 tons) cargo/year von Glahn 2016 Life in Kaifeng: By the River during the Qingming Festival (25.5 cm × 525 cm), by Zhang Zeduan (1085-1145) Jin Zhu, Features of Dongjing’s Commercial Space in the Northern Song Dynasty: An Interpretation Based on Riverside Scene at Qingming Festival. China City Planning Review Vol. 24, No. 1, 2015 (Grain)cargo vessels between 18 and 600 tons Construction and maintenance of canals and dams Canal works near Kaifeng, 1833/1842 (Needham 1971) Repair work on dams at the Yellow River, 1919 The silting and dredging work on the Bian and other canals (Needham 1971) Demographic and commercial growth, the intensification of land use along the Yellow River, the increase of erosion and the sedimentary load and of the frequency of dam breaches Delta of the Yellow River 65 The Oort Minimum (1040-1080) and "Teleconnections" between the Atlantic and Pacific Oscillations during the Medieval Climate Anomaly J. Chen et al. / Quaternary Science Reviews 107 (2015) 66 The increase in the number of extreme precipitation events and of flood catastrophes at the Yellow River in the 11th century L. Zhang, The River, the Plain, and the State: An Environmental Drama in Northern Song China, 1048–1128, Cambridge 2016. R. Mostern, The Yellow River. A Natural and Unnatural History, New Haven/London 67 2021. The catastrophic shift of the Yellow River in 1048 Michael J Storozum et al., The collapse of the North Song dynasty and the AD 1048–1128 Yellow River floods: Geoarchaeological evidence from northern Henan Province, China. The Holocene 2018, Vol. 28(11) 1759–1770 Hebei as floodplain for Kaifeng (the Yellow River and the border lakes): socio-spatial power arrangements Liao (Kitan) 2016 The Kitan/Liao invasion (10041005), the opening of the dikes, the treaty of 1005, and the establishment of border defenses David Curtis Wright, From War to Diplomatic Parity in Eleventh-Century China: Sung's Foreign Relations with Kitan Liao. Leiden – Boston 2005 Another flood at the Yellow River, 1938 Micah S. Muscolino, The Ecology of War in China: Henan Province, the Yellow River, and Beyond, 1938–1950. Cambridge 2016 Expensive efforts to re-divert the Yellow River, the flood of 1077 in Henan east of Kaifeng and the diversion of the floods to Hebei in 1078 Hung Tingjian (1045-1105) on the flood of 1077/1078 in Henan and Hebei: The earth split, and the river boiled. Eight or nine out of ten households drowned and turned into fish. I recently heard that tens of thousands of people from Chanyuan cross the Yellow River every day to flee south. It is impossible to know how many prefectures in Hebei have become so bleak. (transl. Ling Zhang 2016, 197) More floods, internal migration, the collapse of border defenses against the Jin, and the fall of Kaifeng, 1127 (Lamouroux, 2005) Huiping PANG, “Strange Weather: Art, Politics, and Climate Change in the Middle of Emperor Huizong’s Reign,” Journal of Song-Yuan Studies 39 (2009): 1-49. Strange parallels (Lieberman 2009), environmental teleconnections and particularities of the respective configurations of power 74 Affluent societies in troubles – a crisis of growth (Bisson 2009)? Trajectories of pollen data for Central Greece (Izdebski et al. 2015) „Violence, disorder, stress: the problems of traditional powers in western medieval lands arose chiefly from societal growth and change. They might indeed be called „growing pains“ were it not for the inadequacy of the developmental metaphor. There was a confused old head on this young body, addled with conflicting venerable views of world order (…).“ (Bisson 2009, p. 9) 75 The „scientific“ perspective, the aggregation of individual events and narratives into „big data“ and its adaptation to and correlation with the archives of nature https://www.nature.com/articles/s4324 7-021-00284-7.pdf 76 https://in.mashable.com/science/25819/major-volcanic-eruptions-causednumerous-chinese-dynasties-to-collapse-over-the-last-2000-years The multitude of proxies, the diversity of regional dynamics, the multiplexity of narratives 77 A “History of Climate and Society” (HCS) which does not lend itself to simplifying scenarios and political abuse Degroot, D., Anchukaitis, K., Bauch, M. et al. Towards a rigorous understanding of societal responses to climate change. Nature 591, 539–550 (2021). https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-021-03190-2 78 Special issue of De Medio Aevo (1/2024): „Moral Meteorologies“ https://revistas.ucm.es/index.php/DMAE/index 79 Spring 2021 http://climatechangeandhistory.princeton.edu https://johannespreiserkapeller.academia.edu/ Thank you very much for your attention! ¡Muchas gracias por vuestra atencion! 80