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Network Failure?: Connectivity and Fragmentation in the Late Antique Mediterranean IMC Leeds, Session 1112 (Late Antique and Early Medieval Networks, II: Patterns of Dissemination) Johannes Preiser-Kapeller, IMAFO/ABF, ÖAW 1 Ceterum censeo… Carthage, a fig and the dangers of connectivity, 151 BCE • Burning with a mortal hatred to Carthage, anxious, too, for the safety of his posterity, and exclaiming at every sitting of the senate that Carthage must be destroyed, Cato one day brought with him into the Senate-house a ripe fig, the produce of that country. Exhibiting it to the assembled senators, ‘I ask you,’ said he, ‘when, do you suppose, this fruit was plucked from the tree?’ All being of opinion that it had been but lately gathered, –Know then,’ was his reply, ‘that this fig was plucked at Carthage but the day before yesterday [tertium ante diem decerptam Carthagine] –so near is the enemy to our walls [tam prope a moeris habemus hostem].’ It was immediately after this occurrence that the third Punic war commenced, in which Carthage was destroyed, though Cato had breathed his last, the year after this event. (Pliny, Historia Naturalis, 15.20) Calculations of sailing routes and durations between Carthage and Ostia with the software „Expedition“ 2 (Schäfer/Warnking, Antike Welt 3/2019) http://orbis.stanford.edu/ See also: J. Preiser-Kapeller, Networks and the Resilience and Fall of Empires: a MacroComparison of the Imperium Romanum and Imperial China. https://arxiv.org/abs/1809.08937 3 The Roman traffic systems as networks 2018 https://www.springer.com/gp/b 4 ook/9783030045753 The Orbis-network model (from: Preiser-Kapeller, 2019) 5 Heatmap of betweenness centrality in the Orbis network model (from: Preiser-Kapeller, 2019) 6 Growth, benefits and complexity of a network Number of telephone connections in Austria New nodes join the network Increasing benefits of the network Increasing size of the network 7 Plan of the long-distance dialling network in Austria, 1947 https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:A1TA_1150_%C3%9Cp13647_Plan_ des_Fernwahlnetzes_von_%C3%96sterreich_1947_Rep.gif 8 Scale, complexity, efficiency and inequality of networks Histograms of the distribution of degree values (top) and betweenness values (bottom) among all nodes in the ORBIS-network model (Preiser-Kapeller, 9 2019) Network robustness and its testing • Percolation and the (cascading) failure or removement of nodes • Resilience and redundancy (functionality of nodes and multiplicity of paths) Quercus robur 10 The robustness of large scale complex networks: the failure or removal of important nodes 11 The robustness of large scale complex networks: the weakening or failure of important links From: Bellingerini et al. 2019 12 The failure or removal of nodes, the fragmentation of the network and the resilience of the Mediterranean core Solidus of Magnus Maximus (383-388) 13 The weakening or failure of important links and resilient zones of connectivity Cluster in the full network Cluster in the reduced network 14 15 The „imperial ecology“ (“particular flows of resources and population directed by the imperial center on which its success and survival depended”, Sam White 2011) and its infrastructures „The late Roman Empire was territorially unified by its tax system, simply because so many goods were moved from place to place by the state, to supply the three main expenses of Roman government: the army, the capital cities of Rome and of Constantinople (…) and the civil administration.“ (Wickham 2005, p. 72) 16 The „urban metabolism“ of an imperial centre as a core element of the imperial ecology Imperial Rome was “an example of a system that could only maintain its size (…) on the basis of a political system that guaranteed the supply flows. The drastic shrinking was not due to an ecological collapse but to an institutional breakdown. The metabolism of such large systems is not robust because it cannot maintain itself without a huge colonized hinterland. It has to reduce its population to a size that is in balance with its economically and ecologically defined hinterland.” P. Baccini – P. H. Brunner, Metabolisms of the Anthroposphere. Analysis, Evaluation, Design. Cambridge, Mass. – London ²2012, 58 17 Rome, Ostia, Portus and the annona: infrastructure and institutional frameworks 18 Portus in the 5th-6th century View from the north Trajan harbour. The perimeter of the Late Roman wall https://www2.rgzm.de/Navis2/Home/HarbourFu 19 llTextOutputIT.cfm?HarbourNR=Ostia-Traiano The end of of Rome´s “classical” urban metabolism and the Vandal invasion, 455 CE (?) T. C. O´Connell et al., Living and dying at the Portus Romae. Antiquity 93/369, June 20 2019 , pp. 719-734 The „Fourth Punic War“, 455-474/476 (Halsall 2007; Steinacher 2016), the end of the annona from Africa as central axis of the imperial ecology of the Western Empire and maritime connectivity Annona Augusti (Denarius of Severus Alexander, 222-235) 468 21 The reduction of scales, 5th-8th centuries From: Robinson – Wilson (ed.), 2011 (modifying McCormick 2001) 22 The distribution of findings of Vandal coinage from North Africa, 439-534 (Morrisson 2003) MORRISSON 2003 23 ARSW, 4th c. ARSW, 5th c. ARSW, 6th c. The distribution of African Red Slip Ware, 4th-6th c. (ceramics data: Mollema 2018 [https://openaccess.leidenuniv.nl/handle/1887/66969]; network data: Orbis 24 [http://orbis.stanford.edu/]; visualisations and calculations: Preiser-Kapeller, 2019) www.pnas.org/ cgi/doi/10.107 3/pnas.182044 7116 Complex networks and the diffusion of epidemics 25 Connectivity and possible corridors of epidemic diffusion (from: Preiser-Kapeller, 2019) 26 The distribution of findings of Byzantine coinage from North Africa, 534-695 (Morrisson 2003) 27 ARSW, 7th c. Ceramics data: Mollema 2018; network data: Orbis; visualisations and calculations: PreiserKapeller, 2019. 28 ARSW, 7th c. and the reduced network Ceramics data: Mollema 2018; network data: Orbis; visualisations and calculations: PreiserKapeller, 2019. 29 Phocaean RSW, 7th c. and the reduced network Ceramics data: Mollema 2018; network data: Orbis; visualisations and calculations: PreiserKapeller, 2019. 30 Hotspots of the co-occurence of different wares, 6th c. Ceramics data: Mollema 2018; network data: Orbis; visualisations and calculations: PreiserKapeller, 2019. 31 Hotspots of the co-occurence of different wares, 7th c. Ceramics data: Mollema 2018; network data: Orbis; visualisations and calculations: PreiserKapeller, 2019. 32 The “resilience” of regional connectivity and the imperial ecology of the Byzantine Empire in the 7th-8th centuries CE Cluster in the reduced network Network of co-administration by the kommerkiarioi D. Heher – J. Preiser-Kapeller – G. Simeonov, From Local to Global. Maritime Networks of Exchange, Supply and Mobility at the Byzantine Balkan Coast Line and the World of the Early Middle Ages, in: S. Kalmring – L. Werther (eds.), Häfen im 1. Millennium AD. Standortbedingungen, Entwicklungsmodelle und ökonomische Vernetzung. Mainz 2017, pp. 193-224 Julian apo hypaton and genikos kommerkiarios of the apotheke of Lydia (687/688) 33 Territorial contraction, the thinning of networks and the resilience of regional connectivity: the diffusion of Glazed White Ware I (7th-late 8th c.) Gortyn Véronique FRANÇOIS, 2012 https://www.doaks.org/research/support-forresearch/project-grants/reports/201134 2012/zanini An affiliation network of Byzantine artifacts and their finding sites in the 8th century Cluster in the reduced network P. Arthur, M. L. Imperiale, G. Muci, Amphoras, Networks, and Byzantine Maritime Trade, in: J. Leidwander, C. Knappett (eds.), Maritime Networks in the Ancient Mediterranean World. Cambridge 2018, 219-237. 35 “Sicily in the Eighth and Ninth Centuries AD: A Case of Persisting Economic Complexity?” (Emanuele Vaccaro, Al-Masaq 25:1 [2013], 34-69) Gold coin of Emperor Theophilos (829-842), mint of Syracuse Cluster in the reduced network36 Pirenne, McCormick and Wickham 1937 2001 2005 37 Regional cluster in the Orbis network The „localisation“ and „microregionalisation“ of economic systems and networks in the (post)Roman West (Wickham 2005) 38 The „localisation“ and „microregionalisation“ of economic systems and resilient connectivity and imperial ecology in the Roman East (Haldon 2016) Regional cluster in the reduced Orbis network 39 The Arab conquest and the re-orientation of networks Babylon/ al-Fustat Nile From: Sheehan 2010 40 Maxim Romanov, al-Ṯurayyā-Project https://althurayya.github.io/ 41 Trade networks, emporia and cities around the North Sea, 7th-8th century (Ch. Loveluck, R. Hodges and others) Distribution of Sceattas in England and on the Continent, 7th century Sindbæk 2012/2013 42 Conclusion • Network models can help us to reflect upon the structural properties, vulnerabilities and resilience of infrastructures and imperial ecologies of the (post)Roman Mediterranean • Results of these modelling efforts can be compared with an increasing number of archaeological evidences on the distribution of goods (via ceramics) and their temporal and spatial dynamics • These comparisons help us to understand the processes of fragmentation of institutional frameworks and of the thinning of flows of resources and goods, but also the continuities and re-orientations of connectivity during Late Antiquity 43 http://rapp.univie.ac.at/ http://www.dasanderemittelalter.net/ http://oeaw.academia.edu/JohannesPreiserKapeller/Talks Thank you very much for your attention! 44