A Companion to the Environmental History of Byzantium, ed. A. Izdebski - J. Preiser-Kapeller (Brill, 2022/2023) CONCEPTS, SOURCES AND METHODS • 1. Landscapes, settlements and Historical Geography • 2. Palynology and its historical applications • 3. Plants: archaeobotany • 4. Animals: archaeozoology • 5. Textual sources for climatic and environmental developments • 6. Scientific evidence for climate history: dendrochronology, limnology and speleology • 7. Historical seismology and volcanology of the medieval Eastern Mediterranean • 8. Historical epidemiology of the medieval Eastern Mediterranean • 9. Bioarchaeology, Palaeopathology and Diet • 10. The Byzantines and Nature • 11. The eco-systems of Byzantine rural settlements • CASE STUDIES AND HISTORICAL DEVELOPMENTS – The Medieval Climate Anomaly, the Oort Minimum and socio-political dynamics in the Eastern Mediterranean and the Byzantine Empire, 10th to 12th century 2 Outline of the talk * Celestial signs at the turn of the 1st Millennium AD and their physical background – a tour across Afro-Eurasia * Reconstructing climatic fluctuations around the turn of the 1st Millennium – the „Oort Solar Minimum“ and the archives of nature and of society * „A Collapse of the Eastern Mediterranean“? – portents and calamities in historiography and narrative strategies * Conclusion – the ideal and reality of „consilience“ in the study of environmental and sociopolitical dynamics of the past Dionysiou, 16th cent. 3 Outline of the talk * Celestial signs at the turn of the 1st Millennium AD and their physical background – a tour across AfroEurasia * Reconstructing climatic fluctuations around the turn of the 1st Millennium – the „Oort Solar Minimum“ and the archives of nature and of society * „A Collapse of the Eastern Mediterranean“? – portents and calamities in historiography and narrative strategies * Conclusion – the ideal and reality of „consilience“ in the study of environmental and sociopolitical dynamics of the past Dionysiou, 16th cent. 4 The sightings of Halley's Comet in April-May 1066 in Byzantium and Western Europe – a “dis-aster”? Bayeux Tapestry The comet at the end of a long list of portents and calamities in the history of Michael Attaleiates (ca. 1025-1085) “Before this year, in the month of September of the second indiction, on the twenty-third of that month [23 September 1063], during the second watch of the night, there was a sudden powerful earthquake, more frightening than any that had happened before, and it began in the western regions. It was so great in magnitude that it overturned many houses, leaving only a few undamaged. (…) In the regions of Macedonia, the coastal cities suffered more on that night than the others, I mean Rhaidestos and Panion and Myriophyton], where whole sections of the walls collapsed to their very foundations along with many houses, and many people died. In the Hellespont, Kyzikos was especially struck, where the ancient Greek temple was also shaken and most of it collapsed. (…) From that time on and for two years earthquakes continued to occur sporadically at various times, leaving mortal men speechless in wonder. (…) After the two-year period, an earthquake occurred that was larger than the frequent aftershocks, but smaller than the initial one. It happened at Nicaea in Bithynia and brought almost total devastation and ruin to the place. Its most important and large churches - the one founded in honor of the Wisdom of the Word of God, which was also the cathedral, and the one of the Holy Fathers, where the Council of the most Holy and Orthodox Fathers against Areios confirmed its decisions and where Orthodoxy was proclaimed openly to shine brighter than the sun-those churches, then, were shaken and collapsed as did the walls of the city along with many private dwellings. And on that day the shaking ceased. These events were earned by our sins and were surely caused by divine anger; but it seems also that they were a predictive sign of the invasion by that nation [the Seljuks], which I mentioned, and its destruction, for in divine signs it is possible to glimpse not only the things that we have already spoken about but also some things to come. During the course of the month of May of the fourth indiction [1066], a bright comet [Halley´s comet ] appeared after the sun had set, which was as large as the moon when it is full, and it gave the impression that it was spewing forth smoke and mist. On the following day it began to send out some tendrils and the longer they grew the smaller the comet became. These rays stretched toward the east, the direction toward which it was proceeding, and this lasted for forty days. From the month of October until the following May [1067], the emperor [Constantine X Dukas] was afflicted by illness, which wore him out and so he departed from this life.” Michael Attaleiates, History 15, 1–7, ed. and transl. Kaldellis/Krallis, pp. 160–67. The recurring comet of Halley (every 75.32 years on average) and its observation all over the early medieval world Halley´s Comet in March 1986 https://de.wikipedia.org/wiki/Datei:Lspn_com et_halley.jpg Wozniak 2020, 113 The sighting of Halley´s comet in August-September 989 in the History of Leo the Deacon (ca. 950-1000) “Still other calamities were portended by the rising of the star that appeared and again by the fiery pillars that were manifested in the north in the middle of the night and terrified those who saw them; for these portended the capture of Cherson by the Tauroscythians [Rus, 989 or 990] and the occupation of Berrhoia by the Mysians [Bulgarians, 989]. Then there was the star that rose in the west at sunset, which, as it made its evening appearances, did not remain fixed on one point, but emitted bright and far-reaching beams and frequently changed its position, now visible in the north, now in the south [Halley´s Comet, visible in Europe August to September 989]; and sometimes during a single appearance it would change its place in the sky and make a clear and rapid shift in position, so that people who saw it were amazed and astonished and suspected that the peculiar movement of the comet did not bode well; and indeed this came to pass in accordance with the suspicions of the many. For on the eve of the day [25 October 989] when traditionally the memory of the great martyr Demetrios is celebrated, a terrible earthquake occurred the likes of which had not happened in this generation, and demolished to the ground the fortifications of Byzantium and destroyed most of the houses, turning them into tombs for their inhabitants, and razed to the ground the districts near Byzantium and caused much loss of life among the peasants. Furthermore, it brought down and knocked to the ground the half-dome of the upper part of the Great Church, together with the west apse (these were rebuilt by the emperor Basil in six years). And the harsh famines and plagues, droughts and floods and gales of violent winds (when the column in the quarter of Eutropios was knocked over by the force of the waves and the monk [who lived] on it was cruelly drowned in the currents of the sea), and the barrenness of the earth and calamities that occurred, all came to pass after the appearance of the star. But my history will describe these in detail in their place.” Leo the Deacon, History X, 10; transl. Talbot/Sullivan, pp. 217-218 Aurora borealis in the late 980s and early 990s to the far south in Byzantium and Cairo „In the following year, at the first cockcrow, a bright light shone from the north; it lasted a full hour, while the whole sky turned red at the same time, and then disappeared. Some claim to have seen three suns, three moons and three stars fighting each other in the same year. (...) In the fourth year (...) hunger broke out. “ Thietmar of Merseburg, Chronicle, 4, 19 (Wozniak 2020, 266) The 993/994 Event: unusual peaks in the concentrations of Carbon14 and Beryllium • F. Mekhaldi u. a., Multiradionuclide evidence for the solar origin of the cosmicray events of AD 774/5 and 993/4. Nat Commun 6, 8611 (2015). https://doi.org/10.1038/ncomms9611: • “Our data, therefore, support the hypothesis that one or several extreme solar proton events are responsible for the radionuclide production peaks measured at AD 774/5 and 993/4 as it is the only option which is in agreement with all available data. (…) In a modern context, such magnitudes would most likely lead to important disruptions of satellite-based technologies and means of communication. In addition, the brief but extensive ozone depletion which would follow could potentially have effects on atmospheric temperatures and circulation.” The chemical signatures of the 774/775 and 993/994 Events • Ulf Büntgen et al., Tree rings reveal globally coherent signature of cosmogenic radiocarbon events in 774 and 993 CE, Nature Communication 9 (2018) 3605 | DOI: 10.1038/s41467-018-06036-0 Solar eruptions (Flares) https://imgur.com/r/woahdude/U8XiNQQ Coronal mass ejections Effects of space weather on technical systems and the interaction with the earth's magnetic field https://link.springer.com/chapter/10.1007/978 -3-8274-2881-3_8 Portents and calamities in the history of Leo the Deacon (ca. 9501000) and the expectation of the „Second Coming“ • “(…) many extraordinary and unusual events have occurred in novel fashion in the course of my lifetime: fearsome sights have appeared in the sky, unbelievable earthquakes have occurred, thunderbolts have struck and torrential rains have poured down, wars have broken out and armies have overrun many parts of the inhabited world, cities and whole regions have moved elsewhere, so that many people believe that life is now undergoing a transformation, and that the expected Second Coming (deutera katabasis) of the Savior and God is near, at the very gates.” • Leo the Deacon, History I, 1, ed. Hase, p. 4; transl. Talbot/Sullivan, pp. 55–56. The Armenian history of Matthew of Edessa and the prophecies of Yovhannēs Kozeṙn “In 478 of the Armenian reckoning (1029/30), in the years of the Greek kaisar Vasil [Basil II, d. 1025], there appeared in the heavens a frightful and horrible sign, and anger against all creation. On the third of the month of October at the third hour of the day the upper firmament was rent from the east side to the west, the blue sky was split in two and a brilliant light was thrown down on the earth from the north, and the entire earth trembled with a great shaking; and before the light faded there was a shout and a frightful noise over all creation; the sun darkened and the stars appeared as if in the middle of the night, and all the world was clothed in mourning, and all peoples cried out to God with bitter tears. And then after three days all the princes and nobles were assembled by order of the Armenian king Yovhannēs, and they came before the holy vardapet Yovhannēs Kozeṙn, who was a divinely-clothed man who led an angelic life, and was truly full of understanding of apostolic and prophetic writings. And when the Armenian princes came to question him and to understand about the marvellous spectacle and sign, they saw that the holy vardapet Yovhannēs had fallen upon his face in sorrow and was crying bitterly. And when they questioned him, he gave an answer with a bitter air and miserable sighs and said ‘O children, listen to me; woe and wretchedness to all mankind, for behold today is one thousand years since the binding of Satan whom our Lord Jesus Christ bound with his holy cross, and particularly with his holy baptism in the Jordan river. And now Satan has been freed from his bonds, according to the testimony of the vision of John the evangelist, as the angel of God told him that Satan would be bound for 1000 years and would then escape his bonds. And behold today Satan has been freed from his thousand years of bonds, as this is the year 478 in the Armenian era (1029/30). With 552 years gone before, it comes to 1030 years; given thirty years up to Christ’s baptism, and there are 1000 up to today. And now because of this the rending of the heavens has occurred.” T. L. Andrews, Mattʿēos Uṙhayecʿi and His Chronicle. History as Apocalypse in a Crossroads of Cultures, Leiden 2017, 185. The confusion of dates in Matthew of Edessa and celestial phenomena https://eclipse.gsfc.nasa.gov/5MCLEmap/10011100/LE1030-08-16P.gif https://eclipse.gsfc.nasa.gov/5MCSEmap/1001-1100/103008-31.gif The annular solar eclipse of 29 June 1033 in Armenia and other parts of the world https://eclipse.gsfc.nasa.gov/5MCSEmap/1001 -1100/1033-06-29.gif The second prophecy of Yovhannēs Kozeṙn, 1036/1037 AD “In this reckoning and in 485 of the Armenian era [1036/1037], the sun was darkened in a terrible and marvellous spectacle. For just as it had been darkened in this manner at the crucifixion of Christ, in this same way its light was hidden and it was clothed in shadow; and the lights of this world turned to obscurity and blackness, and all the heavens like a vaulted arch were bound in darkness, and the sun became blackened at midday, and all the stars appeared together as if in the middle of the night, and the darkness and obscurity intensified. And all creatures cried out together, and all the mountains and hills resounded, and the mountains and all the rocks shook with trembling, and the great boundless ocean sea undulated with trembling and, sinking into grief, mourned all the sons of man. And it happened that when the sons of man saw all this, they were terrified from fear like dead men. (…) Then Lord Petros the hayrapet of the Armenians and the king Yovhannēs sent respected men to the holy vardapet of the Armenians Yovhannēs, who was called Kozeṙn, so that they might find out from him an interpretation of the great sign, for he was a holy man and adorned with wondrous asceticism, and was an interpreter of the old and new testaments of God, filled with scholarly grace. (…) And he began to speak thus to the Armenian princes: ‘O my glorious sons, listen to these words from the wounded and afflicted Yovhannēs; for behold today 1000 years have passed since the tortures of the crucifixion of Christ, and the release of the wicked Belial, whom the Saviour had bound in the Jordan river, which was shown to us by the first sign more than fourteen years ago, about which we spoke. And now it has repeated, for first the heavens were torn apart and the earth was darkened. And behold in this year the stars have been obscured and all creatures were frightened, because henceforth all the nations of the faithful in Christ shall be turned to darkness; for hereafter the ranks of the holy church of Christ are obscured in all the nations of the faithful.” T. L. Andrews, Mattʿēos Uṙhayecʿi and His Chronicle. History as Apocalypse in a Crossroads of Cultures, Leiden 2017, 189-197. Detail of the Crucifixion, Rabbula Gospels The annular solar eclipse near Easter, of 18 April 1037 https://eclipse.gsfc.nasa.gov/5MCSEmap/1001 -1100/1037-04-18.gif The al-Ismāʿīlīya and the revelation of the al-Mahdī (North Africa 909, Egypt 969/972) 2016 The rebellion of Abû Rakwa in the Cyrenaica, 1005-1006 AD, and a new bright star in the sky • ʿAlī Ibn Ridwān (988–1061): “Now I will describe for you an event/spectacle [aṯār] that I saw at the beginning of my training. This event occurred in Scorpio, opposite the Sun, at the time the Sun was 15 degrees in Taurus and the spectacle was 15 degrees in Scorpio. It was a large naizak [comet], round in shape, and its size two and a half or three times the size of the planet Venus. Its light illuminated the horizon and was very sparkling. The magnitude of the brightness was a little over a quarter of the moon's brightness. It continued to appear and move in that sign of the zodiac with the movement of the equator [diurnal rotation] until the sun arrived in the constellation Virgo, one sixth more, it stopped all of a sudden.” Wozniak 2020, 79 • „A new star of unusual size appeared, brilliant in appearance and dazzling to the eyes, not without horror. In a wonderful way, sometimes it got darker, sometimes it got lighter and sometimes it disappeared. It was visible for three months in the deepest borders of the South, more than any sign that can be seen in the sky.“ Annales Sangallenses maiores, ad a. 1006, Wozniak 2020, 81. • D. Cook, Messianism and Astronomical Events during the First Four Centuries of Islam, online: https://journals.openedition.org/remmm/247#tocto1n6. The supernova NGC (New General Catalogue) 5882 (in the constellation Lupus, distance ca. 7,700 lightyears), and its worldwide observations in April-May 1006 https://astronomy.com/news/2006/06/rockart-records-an-ancient-blast https://de.wikipedia.org/wiki/NGC_5882#/media/Da tei:NGC_5882.jpg http://www.klimaluft.de/steinicke/Artikel/sn1006.pdf Observations of the Supernova in 1006, after Wozniak 2020, 83 The supernova of 1006 as „auspicious star“ in Song China Emperor Song Zhenzong, 997-1022 • During the third year of the Jing-De reign period (1006) a large star appeared at the west of the Di lunar mansion. Nobody could identify its (omen category); some said that it was an `ominous star’ of the Ke Huang type, which forewarned a disastrous war. At that time Zhou Ke-ming was away on duty in the southern part of China. On his return he spoke to the emperor saying that according to the Tian Wen Lu and the QingZhou Chang the star should be identified as Zhou-Bo, which is (supposed to be) yellow in its color and brilliant in its brightness. As an ‘auspicious star’, it would bring great prosperity to the state over which it appeared. He had noticed on his way back that people inside and outside the capital were quite confused over the matter. For this reason he asked the emperor to allow all civil and military officers to celebrate the occasion to calm the people. The emperor praised him and followed his suggestion. He then promoted him to the post of Librarian and Escort of the Crown Prince. “History of Song” Chap 461, 1345 A.D. (transl. Li-Zhi Fang) The Crab Nebula in the constellation of Taurus as a remnant of the supernova of July 1054 (?) and the observations in China, Japan and Cairo https://de.wikipedia.org/wiki/Supernova_1054# /media/Datei:Crab_Nebula.jpg The beginning of the „the Degenerate Age of Dharma” (mappō) in Japanese Buddhism in 1052 AD (500 years after the official introduction of the Dharma to Japan) Michele Marra, The Development of Mappō Thought in Japan (I), Japanese Journal of Religious Studies 15, No. 1 (Mar., 1988), pp. 25-54 Portents and actual calamities: the fire in the Hasedera Temple in Nara in 1052, the cold years of the late 10th and early 11th century Portents and calamities, macro- and microcosm The Universal Man, Liber Divinorum Operum of St. Hildegard of Bingen, 1165 (copy of 13th century, Biblioteca statale, Lucca) The Macrocosm. The man at the center of the universe - Cathedral di Santa Maria in Anagni, fresco in the crypt of San Magno, 13th century 2020, 970 pp. Wozniak 2020, 722 Wozniak 2020, 74. Wozniak 2020, 74. Outline of the talk * Celestial signs at the turn of the 1st Millennium AD and their physical background – a tour across Afro-Eurasia * Reconstructing climatic fluctuations around the turn of the 1st Millennium – the „Oort Solar Minimum“ and the archives of nature and of society * „A Collapse of the Eastern Mediterranean“? – portents and calamities in historiography and narrative strategies * Conclusion – the ideal and reality of „consilience“ in the study of environmental and sociopolitical dynamics of the past Dionysiou, 16th cent. 35 The “Medieval Warm Period” and “Medieval Optimum” as argument for deniers of (anthropogenic) modern climate change 36 The “Medieval Climate Optimum” in Western Europe, 10th-13th century: demographic and economic growth Campbell 2016 From: F. SIROCKO – K. DAVID, Das mittelalterliche Wärmeoptimum (1150–1260 AD) und der Beginn der Kleinen Eiszeit (nach 1310 AD) mit ihren kulturhistorischen Entwicklungen, in: Strategien zum Überleben. Umweltkrisen und ihre Bewältigung, ed. F. Daim – D. Gronenborn – R. Schreg. Mainz 2011, 243–254. 37 Demographic and economic growth under the Northern Song in China, the supply and defence of Kaifeng, and the Yellow River, 960-1126 von Glahn 2016 By the river during the Qingming Festival (25.5 cm × 525 cm), Zhang Zeduan (1085-1145) 38 Sunspots und climate changes Jan Hendrik Oort, 1900-1992 39 The solar Oort minimum and a higher frequency of weather extremes, 1020/1040-1080 40 L SH H L H Medieval Climate Anomaly The North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) Little Ice Age 42 L SH H L H The North SeaCaspian-Pattern (NCP) and the Siberian High (SH) https://link.springer.com/content/pdf/10.1007 %2Fs704-002-8205-x.pdf Athens Istanbul Amorgos L SH H L H 47 48 Volcanic eruptions and climate forcing 49 Büntgen et al. 2020, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.dendro.2020.125757 “Archives of nature” (Christian Pfister) ARCHIVES Minimal temporal resolution (years) Maximum temporal capture (years) Information on Ice <1 1,00E+06 T, N, C, B, V, E, S Marine sediments 10 1,00E+08 T, C, B, E, M, P Limnial sediments <1 1,00E+05 T, B, E, P, V, C Loess 100 1,00E+06 P, B, E, V Dunes 100 1,00E+05 P, B Soils 100 1,00E+06 P, B Dripstones 1 1,00E+05 C, T, P Fluvial sediments 100 1,00E+04 P, B Tree rings <1 1,00E+04 T, P, B, V, E, S Pollen 1 1,00E+05 T, P, B Corals 1 1,00E+04 C, M, T, P Peats 100 1,00E+04 B Historical archives <1 5,00E+03 T, P, X, B, V, E, M, S, C T = temperature; E = fluctuations in the magnetic field of earth; P = precipitation; M = sea level changes; X = extreme events; V = volcanic eruptions; C = chemical composition of air and/or water; B = composition of biomass and vegetation; S = changes in solar irradiation After: F. MAUELSHAGEN, Klimageschichte der Neuzeit (Geschichte Kompakt). Darmstadt 2010 51 Proxy-data sites in the Eastern Mediterranean and East Asia Xoplaki et al., Human Ecology (2018) 46: 363–379 52 (2015) J. Chen et al. / Quaternary Science Reviews 107 Tree rings as climate archives From: Glaser, 2008 mostly cold and dry mostly cold and dry Tree rings as climate proxy for Austria, 1200-1500 CE 53 “Archives of society” (Christian Pfister) Direct data - Observations • Anomalies • Natural hazards • Weather conditions • Daily weather • Solar activity Indirect data – observations and measurements of organic phenomena • Plant phenology: periods of blooming and maturing, date and volume of harvest of cultivated plants • Volume and sugar content of vine and fruit harvests ARCHIVES OF SOCIETY After: Mauelshagen 2010 Direct data - Measurements • Air pressure • Temperature • Precipitation • Water level Indirect data – observations and measurements of nonorganic phenomena • High and low-water marks • Freezing of water bodies • Snow fall, snow coverage Indirect data – cultural phenomena • Supplicatory processions and other religious rituals (in case of drought, etc.) • Image material • Archaeological remains 54 The observation and measurement of natural phenomena: the Nile flood in Egypt and the cherry blossom in Kyoto (Japan) http://lib.stat.cmu.edu/S/beran 55 Cluster of low Nile floods in the late 10th and 11th century and ENSO From: Ellenblum 2012 Banks of the Nile near Karima during a drought Turning qualitative into quantitative data: the „Pfister Indices“ An example of measured (red) and reconstructed (blue) mean annual precipitation anomalies (departures from the 1961–90 reference period) 57 From: Telelis 2004 E. Xoplaki et al., The Medieval Climate Anomaly and Byzantium. Quaternary Science Reviews (data from Telelis, 2004) 59 Aggregating „data“ and quantifying the frequency of calamities in the written sources Haldon et al. 2014 60 Outline of the talk * Celestial signs at the turn of the 1st Millennium AD and their physical background – a tour across Afro-Eurasia * Reconstructing climatic fluctuations around the turn of the 1st Millennium – the „Oort Solar Minimum“ and the archives of nature and of society * „A Collapse of the Eastern Mediterranean“? – portents and calamities in historiography and narrative strategies * Conclusion – the ideal and reality of „consilience“ in the study of environmental and sociopolitical dynamics of the past Dionysiou, 16th cent. 61 The reign of Basil II and the end of times in Leo the Deacon (ca. 950-1000) “many extraordinary and unusual events have occurred in novel fashion in the course of my lifetime: fearsome sights have appeared in the sky, unbelievable earthquakes have occurred, thunderbolts have struck and torrential rains have poured down, wars have broken out and armies have overrun many parts of the inhabited world, cities and whole regions have moved elsewhere, so that many people believe that life is now undergoing a transformation, and that the expected Second Coming (deutera katabasis) of the Savior and God is near, at the very gates.” Leo the Deacon, History I, 1, ed. Hase, p. 4; transl. Talbot/Sullivan, pp. 55–56. “Furthermore, it brought down and knocked to the ground the half-dome of the upper part of the Great Church, together with the west apse (these were rebuilt by the emperor Basil in six years). And the harsh famines and plagues, droughts and floods and gales of violent winds (when the column in the quarter of Eutropios was knocked over by the force of the waves and the monk [who lived] on it was cruelly drowned in the currents of the sea), and the barrenness of the earth and calamities that occurred, all came to pass after the appearance of the star. But my history will describe these in detail in their place.” Leo the Deacon, History X, 10; transl. Talbot/Sullivan, pp. 217-218 62 Apex and crisis of the Byzantine Empire in the 11th century after Basil II (d. 1025) 1025 1081 63 The second half of the reign of Basil II (976-1025) as apex of Roman power and the crisis of the 11th century “The following year [winter 1010-1011] there was a most severe winter; every river and lake was frozen, even the sea itself. And in January of the same year of the indiction a most awesome earthquake occurred; it continued to shake the earth until the ninth of March. On that day, about the tenth hour of the day, there was a frightful shaking and trembling at the capital and in the themes, so much so that the domes of the churches of the Forty Saints and of All Saints fell down (which the emperor immediately rebuilt). These things presaged the uprising [of Meles] which followed in Italy.” John Scylitzes, Synopsis, Constantine VIII, 2, ed. Thurn, p. 373, 3–11; transl. Wortley, p. 352 Dionysiou, 16th cent. 64 Calamities in the later reign of Basil II outside of Byzantine historiography “During the reign of Basil, the Greek emperor, and in the year 452 of the Armenian era [1003-1004] a certain star, appearing in the form of fire, arose in the heavens, an omen of the wrath of God towards all living creatures and also a sign of the end of the world. There was a violent earthquake throughout the whole land, to such an extent that many thought that the day of the end of the world had arrived. Like the time of the flood all living creatures shook and trembled, and many fell down and died from fear of the intensity of this wrath. After this outpouring of God´s wrath a plague (…) came upon the area and spreading through many regions, reached Sebasteia [modern-day Siwas, in Byzantine Cappadocia, where many Armenians lived]. This plague clearly manifested itself on men's bodies and, because of its harshness, many had no time to make their confession or take communion. Men and beast diminished from the land, and those remaining quadrupeds roamed about the countryside without anyone to take care of them.” Matthew of 65 Edessa, History I, 46, transl. Dostourian, p. 43. Calamities in the later reign of Basil II outside of Byzantine historiography In 1002, first severe cold in March and then an exceptional flood of the Euphrates in April plagued Baghdad before “swarms of locusts appeared in the country of Mosul and in Baghdad and they became very numerous in Shiraz [in Iran]. They left no grass [in the fields] and no leaves on the trees and they even consumed the rolls of cloth which the fullers were bleaching; and of each roll of cloth the fuller was only able to give a rag to its owner. And there was a famine, and a measure of wheat was sold in Baghdad for one hundred and twenty gold dinars. And pillars of fire appeared in the heavens, from the north pole to the middle of the sky.” Bar Hebraeus, Chronography, transl. Budge, p. 183. 66 John Scylitzes (ca. 1040-1100) and portents and calamities in the reigns after Basil II: Romanos III Argyros (1028-1034) “On Friday, 28 July, at the second hour of the night, a star fell from south to north, lighting up the whole earth, and shortly afterwards there were reports of disasters afflicting the Roman empire (…). This year [1032] famine and pestilence afflicted Cappadocia, Paphlagonia, the Armeniakon theme and the Honoriad, so grave that the very inhabitants of the themes abandoned their ancestral homes in search of somewhere to live. The emperor [Romanos III Argyros] met them on his return to the capital from Mesanakata [in central Asia Minor, to which a campaign had let him ] and, unaware of the reason for this migration, obliged them to return home, providing them with money and the other necessities of life. And Michael, who was then governing the church of Ankyra, performed virtuous works, sparing nothing which might procure the survival of the victims of famine and pestilence. On Sunday, 13 August, at the first hour of the night, AM 6540, there was a severe earthquake. The emperor came into the capital and Helena, his former wife, having died, he distributed many alms on her behalf. In that year on 20 February [1033] a star traversed from north to south with noise and commotion. It was visible until 15 March, and there was a bow above it. On 6 March, third hour, there was an earthquake.” John Scylitzes, Synopsis, Romanos III Argyros, 10–12, ed. Thurn, pp. 385, 52–386, 81; transl. Wortley, pp. 364–365 67 John Scylitzes (ca. 1040-1100) and portents and calamities in the reigns after Basil II: Romanos III Argyros (1028-1034) “(…) On the seventeenth of February [1034], there was an earthquake and the cities of Syria suffered severely. (…) For some time, the eastern themes had been consumed by locusts, compelling the inhabitants to sell their children and move into Thrace. The emperor gave to every one of them three pieces of gold and arranged for them to return home. The locusts were finally carried away by a powerful wind, fell into the high sea off the Hellespont and perished. They were washed up onto the shore where they covered the sand of the beach. The emperor renovated the aqueducts which bring water into the city and also the cisterns which receive that water. He restored the leper house and every other hospice which had been damaged by the earthquake. In a word, every good work was his concern. But he was afflicted by a chronic disease; his beard and his hair fell out. It was said he had been poisoned by John, who later became orphanotrophos.” John Scylitzes, Synopsis, Romanos III Argyros, 17, ed. Thurn, p. 389, 54–69; transl. Wortley, pp. 367–68 68 John Scylitzes (ca. 1040-1100) and portents and calamities in the reigns after Basil II: Michael IV (1034-1041), Michael V (1041-1042) and John Orphanotrophos “But it was clearly shown from the outset that what had transpired was not pleasing to God. At the eleventh hour of Easter Day [14 April 1034] there was an unendurable hailstorm, so violent that not only the trees (fruit-bearing and otherwise) were broken down, but also houses and churches collapsed. Crops and vines were laid flat to the ground; hence there ensued a great shortage of all kinds of produce at that time. There was a falling star about the third hour of the night on the Sunday after Easter; the brilliance of its shining put all the stars into the shade and, for many, it looked like the rising sun. And the emperor [Michael IV] became possessed of a demon; those close to him, using fine phrases, called it a madness-causing disease, but it endured to the end of his life. He received no relief either by divine might or from doctors but was grievously tormented and tortured.” John Scylitzes, Synopsis, Michael IV, 2, ed. Thurn, p. 393, 45–57; transl. Wortley, p. 371 The Mandate of Heaven and a "moral meteorology" • “If the ruler is of the right kind, then the primal forces (Yin and Yang) are in a harmonious relationship to one another. Wind and rain come at the right time, auspicious stars become visible, and the yellow dragon descends.” Dong Zhongshu (179-104 BC, quoted from Vogelsang 2012, 159) M. Elvin, “Who Was Responsible for the Weather? Moral Meteorology in Late Imperial China”, Osiris 13, Beyond Joseph Needham: Science, Technology, and Medicine in East and Southeast Asia (1998), 213–w37. 70 Visions and moral meteorology in John Scylitzes´ narrative on John Orphanotrophos “The swarms of locusts which had expired (as we reported) on the sands of the shore of the Hellespont now spontaneously regenerated and overran the coastal regions of the Hellespont again, devastating the Thrakesion theme for three whole years. Then they appeared in Pergamon but perished there, as one of the bishop’s servants saw beforehand in a vision (not a dream, for he was awake). It was as though he saw a eunuch dressed in white, of radiant appearance. [This apparition] was ordered to open and empty the first of three sacks lying before him, then the second and, after that, the third. He did as he was commanded; the first sack poured out snakes, vipers and scorpions; the second, toads, asps, basiliscs, horned serpents and other venomous creatures; the third, beetles, gnats, hornets and other creatures with a sting in the tail. The man stood there speechless; the bright apparition stood close to him and said: ‘These came and will come upon you because of your transgression of God’s commandments and the desecration of the emperor Romanos which has taken place and the violation of his marriage bed.’ That is what happened so far.” John Scylitzes, Synopsis, Michael IV, 4, ed. Thurn, pp. 394, 77–395, 94; transl. Wortley, p. 372 Dionysiou, 16th cent. 71 Calamities and moral meteorology in John Scylitzes´ narrative on John Orphanotrophos “Because there was a drought and for six whole months no rain had fallen, the emperor’s brothers held a procession, John carrying the holy mandylion, the Great Domestic the Letter of Christ to Abgar, the protobestiarios George the holy Swaddling Bands. They travelled on foot from the Great Palace to the church of the exceedingly holy Mother of God at Blachernae. The patriarch and the clergy made another procession, and not only did it not rain but a massive hailstorm was unleashed which broke down trees and shattered the roof tiles of the city. The city was in the grip of famine so John purchased one hundred thousand bushels of grain in the Peloponnese and in Hellas; with this the citizens were relieved.” John Scylitzes, Synopsis, Michael IV, 10, ed. Thurn, p. 400, 39–49; transl. Wortley, pp. 377–78. 72 Calamities and moral meteorology in John Scylitzes´ narrative on John Orphanotrophos “Most of the time the emperor Michael resided at Thessalonike where he frequented the tomb of the wondrously victorious martyr Demetrios in the sincere hope of finding relief from his illness. He had nothing whatsoever to do with affairs of state other than those which were absolutely necessary; the administration and the handling of public business rested entirely on John’s shoulders and there was no imaginable form of impurity or criminality that he did not search out for the affliction and mistreatment of the subjects. It would be a Herculean task to list them all. Everybody living under this grievous tyranny persisted in interceding with the Deity, appealing for some relief. God frequently shook the earth; the inhabited world was assailed by awesome and fearful [portents]: comets appearing in the sky, storms of wind and rain in the air, eruptions and tremblings on earth. In my opinion, these things presaged the forthcoming unparalleled catastrophe for the tyrants.” John Scylitzes, Synopsis, Michael IV, 21, ed. Thurn, p. 408, 51–63; transl. Wortley, pp. 383–84 73 Calamities in the 1030s outside of Byzantine historiography “At the beginning of the year 481 of the era of the Armenian calendar [10321033] there was a severe famine throughout the entire land. Many people died because of this famine, and many sold their women and children for want of bread. Because of the intensity of the hardships, whenever one spoke, he yielded up his soul. In this manner the land was consumed by famine.” Matthew of Edessa, History I, 60, transl. Dostourian, p. 55 74 Portents and calamities in Baghdad, 1031-1032 “And in the year four hundred and twenty-three of the Arabs (1031 CE) a woman in Baghdad gave birth (to a being) which was like an ill-formed serpent. He had the head of a man, and a mouth and a neck, and he was without hands and without feet. And, moreover, when he fell upon the ground, he spoke and said, 'Four years from now a famine shall make an end of the children of men, unless men, and women, and children, and the beasts go forth and weep before the Lord, so that He may make His rain to descend'. And when the Caliph heard this, he commanded that all the people should go outside [the city] and make supplication. And because many did not believe this report, very few went out. And in that year [1031-1032] the water froze in Bagdad and the red sand descended as rain, and the trees were destroyed. And there was so great a famine in the wilderness that the nomads who lived there ate their camels and their horses, and even their children. (…) And they were in tribulation not only because of the famine (or, want of food), but also through thirst which was due to the scarcity of water, and they came and camped by the rivers (or, canals) which were in the neighbourhood of the towns and villages. And there was a pestilence in India and in all Persia; forty thousand biers with dead men on them were taken out from Isfahan in one week. And in Baghdad also there was not a single house left in which there was not wailing. And in Mosul four thousand young men died of the disease of inflammation of the eyelids.” Bar Hebraeus, Chronography, transl. Budge, pp. 193–94 75 Calamities and moral meteorology in John Scylitzes: the reign of Constantine IX Monomachos (1042-1055) “Those were the first deeds of (Constantine IX) Monomachos in the tenth year of the indiction. On the eleventh of October, eleventh year of the indiction, AM 6551 [1042], a comet appeared travelling from east to west and it was seen shining during the whole month; it presaged the forthcoming universal disasters.” John Scylitzes, Synopsis, Constantine IX, 2, ed. Thurn, p. 423, 56-424, 62; transl. Wortley, p. 399. 77 The frozen Danube in 1048 and the invasion of the Pechenegs “It was toward the end of autumn and winter about to begin, the sun being in Capricorn, when a very strong wind arose from the north so that the river froze to a depth of fifteen cubits. All guard duties being relaxed, Tyrach seized the opportunity for which he prayed: he crossed the Danube with all the Patzinaks, eighty thousand in number they say. They installed themselves on the other side, razing and devastating everything they came across.” John Scylitzes, Synopsis, Constantine IX, 7, ed. Thurn, p. 458, 40-46; transl. Wortley, p. 429 78 The flood catastrophe at the Yellow River in China in 1048 L. Zhang, The River, the Plain, and the State: An Environmental Drama in Northern Song China, 1048–1128, Cambridge 2016. R. Mostern, The Yellow River. A Natural and Unnatural History, New Haven/London 79 2021. Selected climate anomalies and epidemics in Byzantium and adjacent polities, 1025-1050 „The Collapse of the Eastern Mediterranean. Climate Change and the Decline of the East, 950-1072“ (Ronnie Ellenblum, 2012) “This provocative study argues that many well-documented but apparently disparate events - such as recurrent drought and famine in Egypt, mass migrations in the steppes of central Asia, and the decline in population in urban centres such as Baghdad and Constantinople - are connected and should be understood within the broad context of climate change.” Long-term trends and short-term shocks – the combination of archives of nature and of society: Growth in central Greece, ca. 900-1300 Halos L. Voulkaria Bauron Lerna A. IZDEBSKI – G. KOLOCH – T. SŁOCZYŃSKI, Exploring Byzantine and Ottoman economic history with the use of palynological data: a quantitative approach. JÖB 65 (2015) 67–110. 82 The Seljuks in Chonai in 1070 and the „forces of nature“ in Michael Attaleiates (ca. 1025-1085) “Even before these news became widely known, they heard more that the Turks had taken by storm the city of Chonai and the very shrine of the Archgeneral [Michael], famous for its miracles and dedicationstidings to the effect, and that they had filled the place with slaughter and filth, and polluted the church with many outrages. Worst of all was this: the channels in the cavern that, ever since the ancient visitation and divine manifestation of the Archgeneral, funnel the rivers flowing past that area whose current is precipitous, turbulent, and swift, failed to protect the refugees who sought to escape from the danger in them. Instead-and this had never happened before-the water flooded, was then sucked down, and again disgorged. It drowned almost all the fugitives, submerging them under water even though they were on land. The news of this greatly depressed us, for it was as though these disasters were being caused by divine anger. Not only the enemy but the very forces of nature seemed to be fighting against us.” Michael Attaleiates, History 19, 3–4, ed. and transl. Kaldellis/Krallis, pp. 256–257 83 Portents, calamities and human (in)activity after Manzikert under Michael VII Dukas and Nikephoritzes (1071-1078) Michael VII, Holy Crown of Hungary “In that year a number of portents were observed in the City of Byzas [Constantinople]. A three-legged chicken was born as well as a baby with an eye on its forehead (and having a single eye at that) and the feet of a goat. When it was exposed in the public avenue in the area of Diakonissa, it uttered the cries of a human baby. Two soldiers of the Immortals [a guard regiment] were struck by lightning in a public place close to the western walls of the City. Not only that but certain comets streaked across the sky. Meanwhile, because the east was being wasted by the barbarians there who were ruining and subjecting it, large multitudes were fleeing those regions on a daily basis and seeking refuge in the Imperial City [Constantinople], so that hunger afflicted everyone, oppressing them because of the lack of supplies. When winter arrived, because the emperor [Michael VII Dukas] lacked generosity and was extremely stingy, he offered no succour from the imperial treasuries or any other form of provident welfare either to those in office or to the people of the City, and so each person wallowed in his own misery, nor did he hold out an abundant hand that could assist the poor and provide them with daily provisions, for it is through these means that the poor are normally supplied with necessities. There were many, indeed countless deaths every day, not only among the refugees but also among the people of the City [Constantinople], so that their dead bodies were heaped both in the so-called porticos and in open spaces, and they were carried on stretchers, each one of which was often stacked with five or six bodies piled up in a random heap. Everywhere you saw sad faces and the Reigning City [Constantinople] was filled with misery. The rulers did not let up on their daily injustices and illegal trials, but acted as though the Romans were not being afflicted by anything out of the ordinary, be it foreign war, divine wrath, or poverty and violence oppressing the people; it was with such nonchalance that they practiced all their tyrannical impieties. Every imperial scheme and plan, in fact, was preoccupied with some injustice against their own subjects, at the ingenious looting of their livelihoods and their resources for living.” Michael Attaleiates, History 26, 8–9, ed. and transl. Kaldellis/Krallis, 84 pp. 384–87 The „Great Calamity“ in Fatimid Egypt, 1064-1074 climatic anomalies within a bundle of factors “During the reign of [Caliph] al-Mustanṣir occurred the famine that had an atrocious effect and left a horrid memory. It lasted seven years and was caused by the weakness of the [Caliph´s] authority, the deterioration of the affairs of state, the usurpation of power by the military commanders, the continuous strife among the Bedouins, the failure of the Nile to reach its plenitude, and the absence of cultivation of the lands that had been irrigated. This began in 457/1064-65. It resulted in rising prices and increased famine and was followed by an epidemic. The lands remained uncultivated, and fear prevailed. Land and sea routes became unsafe, and travel became impossible without a large escort; otherwise, one would be exposed to danger.” al-Maqrīzī, Ighāthah, transl. Allouche, p. 37 Outline of the talk * Celestial signs at the turn of the 1st Millennium AD and their physical background – a tour across Afro-Eurasia * Reconstructing climatic fluctuations around the turn of the 1st Millennium – the „Oort Solar Minimum“ and the archives of nature and of society * „A Collapse of the Eastern Mediterranean“? – portents and calamities in historiography and narrative strategies * Conclusion – the ideal and reality of „consilience“ in the study of environmental and sociopolitical dynamics of the past Dionysiou, 16th cent. 86 Between climate and society: disasters as "hybrid socio-natural events“ (reactions and interpretations, framing of descriptions) Disasters are “both culturally constructed and physically pronounced. On the one hand, although they were cultural constructs, they could not be detached from their physical existence. Nature was and is more than a social structure without reference to the material world. On the other hand, nature was an actor who influenced the environment even without human perception. (Still) disasters had a social context because human actions could affect the intensity and frequency of disasters. " Krämer 2015, 203 From: R. Schreg, Siedlungsökologie und Landnutzungsstrategien im byzantinischen Osten, in: H. Baron – F. Daim (eds.), A Most Pleasant Scene and an Inexhaustible Resource. Steps towards a Byzantine Environmental History. Mainz 2017, 17-34. The ideal and reality of „consilience“ in the study of environmental and sociopolitical dynamics of the past Camenisch et al., 2016 88 The „scientific“ perspective, the aggregation of individual events and narratives into „big data“ and its adaptation to and correlation with the archives of nature https://www.nature.com/articles/s4324 7-021-00284-7.pdf 89 https://in.mashable.com/science/25819/major-volcanic-eruptions-causednumerous-chinese-dynasties-to-collapse-over-the-last-2000-years A “History of Climate and Society” (HCS) which does not lend itself to simplifying scenarios and political abuse Degroot, D., Anchukaitis, K., Bauch, M. et al. Towards a rigorous understanding of societal responses to climate change. Nature 591, 539–550 (2021). https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-02103190-2 90 http://rapp.univie.ac.at/ http://climatechangeandhistory.princeton.edu https://johannespreiserkapeller.academia.edu/ Thank you very much for your attention!