This short study is a first attempt to apply some tools which have been adopted for the analysis of temporal dynamics in the Late Medieval Period to the early medieval world. The study is also inspired by the recent works of...
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This short study is a first attempt to apply some tools which have been adopted for the analysis of temporal dynamics in the Late Medieval Period to the early medieval world. The study is also inspired by the recent works of KOKKONEN/SUNDELL (2012), who inspected if primogeniture influenced the durability of reigns in Europe in the period between 1000 and 1800 CE, and of BLAYDES/CHANEY (2013), who analysed for a big sample of polities the dynamics of ruler change for medieval Europe and the Islamic world before 1500 CE. The aim of the present study is more modest and does not include the creation of elaborate mathematical models as did KOKKONEN/SUNDELL and BLAYDES/CHANEY. With several statistical tools, a smaller sample of polities in the period 0-800 CE is inspected with regard to the sequence and duration of reigns, differentiated along the qualification if a reign was initiated “violently” or “non-violently”. Thereby, the general durability of reigns, the possible persistency of periods of frequent violent ruler-change and the temporal dynamics of these “games of thrones”, which not only affected rulers and dynasties as well as courts and nobilities, but also entire societies and polities, across longer periods of time will be illustrated. Differences and commonalities of polities from various regions of the early medieval world will become visible. At the same time, the value of such quantitative analyses for research on a period for which source evidence is often characterised as insufficient for such attempts will be highlighted.
