MakerBot Future Vision

Hey,

I have to give a presentation in October in San Francisco about a MakerBot future and I'm wondering if you all have any ideas. How do you think the world will change as more and more people get MakerBots? I mean, besides everyone having whistles. :)

I have some ideas, but I thought I'd check in with you all since you might have some fresh insights into the future of decentralized production and personal fabrication.

What are the best case scenarios? Are there any worst case scenarios? What will be the milestones that we pass on this adventure into home based production and sharing?

Bre



http://brepettis.com
http://makerbot.com

I've been tossing around the whole on-demand manufacturing idea as an
essential part of long term space missions. There are obvious new problems
to be solved for printing in low/zero G in a spacecraft environment (and
benefits, too - no sagging!), but what else are you going to do when you
are at least several months from Earth and need a spare part?

Steve
http://www.antitronics.com/

1) It will open a lot of eyes to new possibilities - I can do what?!?!
2) Being readily accessible it should, at least, train an army of young fabbers. When these kids grow up they will have useful skills and an expectation of personal fabrication.
3) Maker Parties - BYOMB - a table full of deeply customized Bots with their owners chatting about life and whatever while their bots print whistles, cupcakes or put form to novel concepts.
4) May even expand interest in things like science, technology, engineering and math.

Laser cutters and 3d printers are the band saws and tables saws of the 21st century...

Milestone: Makerbot enters the lexicon. "MakerBot it"
Milestone: 4th grader designs and manufacturers a ??? in his/her bedroom, gets Nobel prize ;)
Milestone: Bre, Zach and Adam get health insurance.

Awesome Milestone: Makerbot is recognized as an essential tool for lessening the US trade deficit with China.

Bad for Hollywood, good for human kind: The end of "in the near future" apocalyptic sci-fi movies, because humans are able to understand and make the stuff they need to live.

Catalysis/trigger for improvements in UI design and Computer Human Interaction - current CAD software only really works for folks willing to spend the time to learn to use them, instead of the tools learning to be used by J. Random, who wants to make his next teacup have a little more room in the loop so he doesn't burn his knuckles. Otherwise the risk is that the barrier to useful entry is too high for uptake.

Design for individual use rather than design for canonical use - having each item produced be specific to particular requirements of this item, right now.

Design for customization - availability of generic primitive representations of objects that are meant to be customized before use.

Event: contestation of when a design was reduced to practice for purposes of patent or copyright based on who printed it first.

Event: arrest for possession of a prohibited fabbed object due to pwnage of the bot by a third party.

Misuse of a 'bot by third parties getting prosecuted under laws modeled after the ones that ban junk faxing, based on consumables cost.

Is a work obscene under local ordinances at the time that the .stl files come into the county, or at the time that work is printed?

That's 2 minutes worth. Back to work...

Tox




--
Scott Small

I have a dream, concerning usage and build instructions for the Makerbot. Let me quote Neal Stephenson's Cryptonomicon:

So the dream is to have instructions usable in very suboptimal conditions. I expect that'll be a ways off in the future, because the current effort is in improving the platform.

How important is simplicity and ease of use, for us to hope for widespread adoption of Makerbot or reprap type devices? Maybe that's a problem for a future day. I wanted to float the idea, to see if other people see this as a desirable goal.

Thanks!

Kevin

You HAVE (ABSOLUTELY HAVE TO HAVE) the ability to create overhangs!!!!!!!!!!!!! an idea would be to have a lower printing temperature and cool it when it comes out...maybe.....you also should have an option for a larger printing area (i would love to see the day that i can print my own laptop case/shell...also...a great idea would be to have a way to enable 2 colors through the extruder...half of the whistle could be black and half could be white...my final suggestion is a way smaller diameter nozzle, we need a finer print quality. 

@ Kevin

i'm thinking user-specific fabrication. ReplicatorG will store your
body dimensions/preferences to allow on-the-fly modification of
digital design files.

1) download design for wedding ring
2) ReplicatorG automagically modifies it to fit your and your
fianceé's fingers
3) Printable Happiness

logistically this might require a more advanced file format, so that
certain vertices are already "tagged" to allow the user to more easily
select and scale them (e.g. make the ring opening larger while keep
the ring thickness constant) instead of having to learn blender.

Jordan

I see a couple things on the horizon for this type of technology.

1. Near term, there are many objects that we will prefer to be
fabricated in this way. Open source offers a lot of options for
improvement that many small bits like this haven't seen before. Much
like open source software, there is the opportunity to actually abuse
a piece, step on it, then go back in and make it better. While
manufactures could make a knob 10x stronger they are saving a few
pennies in material which makes a huge difference when you are making
a million. If I'm making a replacement knob in my house I will pay
the few pennies to make the best knob I can.

2. A far term vision is in using manufacturing and robotics for
improving many things in our lives. Robots are already used for
building the 787 using composite fibers placed by computer. Imagine a
few generations from now with something in between that a makerbot.
Building size projects could be executed with great precision and less
waste.
Suppose you wish to replace your roof. You're able to rent such a
machine and buy basic materials necessary to feed it. It then goes
about replacing your roof with a solar cell embedded "shell" which is
incredibly strong.

Ryan

It's a minor point, but I suspect that the change in materials and
construction will cause the style of everyday items to change
drastically. Maybe art deco and victorian style designs will come
back in vogue. No matter what, I suspect that things are going to get
much more curvy and elaborate.

For comparison, think about how industrial and household design's
changed over 50-60 years. Metal worked well with punching and
casting, so we ended up with bulky,simpler, flatter shapes. Injection
molding gave us lots of neat curves, but has restrictions about draft
and overhangs. As a result, something as boring as an electric hedge
clipper went from cylindrical motor on blade arm to a curvy ergonomic
feel. Makerbot and similar technology will push designs even more.
When you can print whatever shape you want, curvy, organic shapes
suddenly become trivial in everyday items. We've gotten used to
minimal, smooth, flat shapes encouraged by straight line cuts and
reducing waste, giving us Ikea-style flatpack furniture. Imagine what
we can do when curves don't mean shaving off tons of material?

Personally, I'm always surprised by how many designs on Thingiverse
look like functional and plain injection molded parts (minus only the
draft angle needed to extract the part from the mold.) I keep waiting
for someone to figure out they can do curves, ornamentation, and
assymmetry for free.

Robert

I see the near-term future of homebrew manufacture this way:

1. The Makerbot/Reprap designs will be made more robust and more self-replicable. I expect even the extruder to become a more "printable" item, whether by printing the molds needed to cast new high-temperature extruders, or by having some special extruders that can print high temp-materials needed to make regular ones.
2. The RRF will probably be the first to include reliable and accurate circuit-tracing in a printer. This will allow PCBs made of ABS and Low-Melt Alloy to be made by anyone. Not long after, I expect to see more refined controller boards that use primarily locally purchasable, through-hole systems with advanced ICs so people can more easily replicate the devices. For all that, I'd say Makerbot will remain the means of choice to get a new printer for most people, because of simplicity, support and brand identity.
3. A method of recycling the ABS plastic used to make the models won't be long in coming. I personally plan to try making an acetone evaporation and distillation system that continuously cycles, making plenty of ABS powder. From there, it's only a 3mm extruder build away from putting out freshly recycled filament.
4. 3D scanners like the David are going to be popular addon kits for the Reprap/Makerbot setups, so that people can scan-in real world items, perhaps those fabbed or designed through other means, and share them. This may end up leading to lawsuits in time, when people start copying and sharing patented designs.
5. I'd love to see some kind of automated mould/caster appearing, too. Perhaps something resembling a modern breadmaker; you put your design and the ingredients needed for ceramic into a mixing chamber, which cures the ceramic and drills into the design. Flooding the chamber with acetone clears out the ABS; injection-moulding with metals, silicone, edible jelly, glass powder, you name it can then ensue. A copy of the plastic prototype in glass or metal emerges.
   

How will this ability change culture? Having a reliable and simple printer that can copy real-world items, send them as attachments to friends and family, and enable birthday-present giving from afar? Real world items start to be seen as abstracted things. People build things they'll need for today or tomorrow, and pop them in the recycler when they're not needed any longer. They find pretty seashells and send copies to friends abroad so they can appreciate the intricacy of the items in ways that a picture can't convey.

People might even hook up makerbots to the internet as physical inboxes for digital packages. You come home to find the output box of your makerbot full of gifts and purchased designs.
Sample products, too hollow for practical use but enticing enough to encourage you to check the main site. Sexual enhancement spammers send more offensive spam mail than previously thought plausible.
This changes the world of novelty manufacture. Companies that now appeal to people with novel designs-of-the-season will have to compete with independent whimsical designers who change their models each week. Competition and a struggle for a robust, digital-age-proof business model ensues.

Invention and design are probably set for a revolution, as 3D printing becomes a commonplace ability. People won't be put off testing their ideas when they don't need to go ask someone to make it for them, or learn difficult new skills. If you've thought of something wacky that might improve someone's life, you can build it, proof it, and send the prototype as an attachment to a potential investor or bulk manufacturer. From inspiration to end product in several days.

It's almost a pity Star Trek didn't consider more the impact of the replicators, holodecks and transporters on human culture and expression; we'd be more prepared for the advent of the real thing!

Great ideas!

One thing I can't wait to see, is what other cultures do with the
MakerBot technology once it becomes ubiquitous.

I can envision individuals in developing countries creating things we
can't imagine from our Western perspective, things that fundamentally
change the quality of their lives for the better. I can see Will's
glasses for instance, fitted with liquid lenses [http://www.core77.com/
blog/object_culture/
brilliant_waterbased_eyeglasses_for_the_masses_no_optician_required_12220.asp]
restoring sight to people that otherwise would remain vision impaired.

Go!

=ml=
>    1. The Makerbot/Reprap designs will be made more robust and more *
>    self-replicable*. I expect even the extruder to become a more "printable"
>    2. The RRF will probably be the first to include reliable and
> accurate *circuit-tracing
>    in a printer*. This will allow PCBs made of ABS and Low-Melt Alloy to be
>    3. A method of *recycling the ABS plastic* used to make the models won't
>    4. *3D scanners* like the David <http://rap-man.com/david-kit.htm> are
>    5. I'd love to see some kind of *automated mould/caster* appearing, too.

Here's the URL from my previous post on one line [I hope]:
http://www.core77.com/blog/object_culture/brilliant_waterbased_eyeglasses_for_the_masses_no_optician_required_12220.asp

My previous example is an application of two Western technologies
applied to help the plight of others; not quite supporting my thesis.

Let me try again. I can see some of the creativity and innovation
displayed on Afrigadget [http://www.afrigadget.com/] yielding some
truly amazing an as-yet-unimagined applications/products/tools once
MakerBot technology becomes ubiquitous.

Go!

=m i l e s=

Bre-

Many of these suggestions are great near-term goals for Makerbot.
Obviously, in order to get to the point that you suggest -- where
there are millions of makerbots in the world, not hundreds -- we will
need to work to make the platform more easy to use, more easy to
upgrade, and more innovative than it's competition.

But once makerbots do reach critical mass, I think that the most
exciting thing that will come out of them (literally) will be a method
for making consumer products which can compete realistically with the
current, mass produced method, while still being fixable, upgradeable,
low cost, and high performance. I think this will be the most
significant offshoot -- a pre-diamond age future where the local user
has more say, more input, more control, and more agency than they have
had since the Mathew Boulton opened his first Manufactory in
Birmingham.

Let's get this show going!!

-Dominic
Editor, http://www.humblefacture.com

On Oct 1, 1:04 pm, TeamTeamUSA <miles...@gmail.com> wrote:
> Here's the URL from my previous post on one line [I hope]:http://www.core77.com/blog/object_culture/brilliant_waterbased_eyegla...

The revolution is getting a booster shot of 50 new makerbots on monday. :)