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Destined For War: Can America and China Escape Thucydides's Trap? Paperback – August 7, 2018
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China and the United States are heading toward a war neither wants. The reason is Thucydides’s Trap: when a rising power threatens to displace a ruling one, violence is the likeliest result. Over the past five hundred years, these conditions have occurred sixteen times; war broke out in twelve.
At the time of publication, an unstoppable China approached an immovable America, and both Xi Jinping and Donald Trump promised to make their countries “great again,” the seventeenth case was looking grim—it still is. A trade conflict, cyberattack, Korean crisis, or accident at sea could easily spark a major war.
In Destined for War, eminent Harvard scholar Graham Allison masterfully blends history and current events to explain the timeless machinery of Thucydides’s Trap—and to explore the painful steps that might prevent disaster today.
SHORT-LISTED FOR THE 2018 LIONEL GELBER PRIZE
NAMED A BEST BOOK OF THE YEAR BY: FINANCIAL TIMES * THE TIMES (LONDON)* AMAZON
“Allison is one of the keenest observers of international affairs around.” — President Joe Biden
“[A] must-read book in both Washington and Beijing.” — Boston Globe
“[Full of] wide-ranging, erudite case studies that span human history . . . [A] fine book.”— New York Times Book Review
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Print length400 pages
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LanguageEnglish
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Publication dateAugust 7, 2018
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Dimensions5.31 x 0.99 x 8 inches
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ISBN-101328915387
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ISBN-13978-1328915382
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What's it about?
A book about the potential for war between China and the United States, and how it might be prevented. -
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Thucydides identifies three primary drivers fueling this dynamic that lead to war: interests, fear, and honor.1,872 Kindle readers highlighted this -
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When states repeatedly fail to act in what appears to be their true national interest, it is often because their policies reflect necessary compromises among parties within their government rather than a single coherent vision.1,735 Kindle readers highlighted this -
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Intentions aside, when a rising power threatens to displace a ruling power, the resulting structural stress makes a violent clash the rule, not the exception.1,552 Kindle readers highlighted this
Editorial Reviews
Review
A NATIONAL BESTSELLER A NEW YORK TIMES NOTABLE BOOK OF THE YEAR A NEW YORK TIMES EDITORS' CHOICE A LONDON TIMES BOOK OF THE YEAR: POLITICS A FINANCIAL TIMES BEST BOOK OF THE YEAR: POLITICS AN AMAZON BEST HISTORY BOOK OF THE YEAR SHORTLISTED FOR THE 2018 LIONEL GELBER PRIZE “Thucydides’s Trap identifies a cardinal challenge to world order: the impact of a rising power on a ruling power. I read the book with great interest. I can only hope that the US-China relationship becomes the fifth case to resolve itself peacefully, rather than the 13th to result in war.” — HENRY KISSINGER, former United States Secretary of State “Graham Allison is one of the keenest observers of international affairs around. He consistently brings his deep understanding of history’s currents to today’s most difficult challenges and makes our toughest foreign policy dilemmas accessible to experts and everyday citizens alike. That’s why I regularly sought his counsel both as a senator and as vice president. In Destined for War, Allison lays out one of the defining challenges of our time — managing the critical relationship between China and the United States.” — JOE BIDEN, former Vice President of the United States “One of the most insightful and thought-provoking books I have ever read on the most important relationship in the world: the US and China. If Graham Allison is right — and I think he is —China and the US must heed the lessons in this superb study in order to build a strategic relationship that avoids a war which neither side would win.” — GENERAL (RET.) DAVID PETRAEUS, Chairman of the KKR Global Institute, former Director of the CIA, and former Commander of US Central Command “The Chinese superpower has arrived. Could America's failure to grasp this reality pull the United States and China into war? [Destined for War] argue[s] persuasively that adjusting to this global power shift will require great skill on both sides if conflagration is to be avoided... [Destined for War is full of] wide-ranging, erudite cases studies that span human history... [A] fine book.” — NEW YORK TIMES BOOK REVIEW “This summer’s must-read book in both Washington and Beijing.” — NIALL FERGUSON, BOSTON GLOBE “Please read this book because it'll rattle you...[Allison is] a first-class academic with the instincts of a first-rate politician. He brings to the 'Thucydides Trap' an impressive sweep of history and geopolitical and military knowledge. Unlike some academics, he writes interestingly... Allison isn't a pessimist. He argues that with skillful statecraft and political sensitivity these two superpowers can avoid war.” — BLOOMBERG NEWS “A brief but far-reaching book in which potted history is incisively deployed…Perhaps we can avoid war, Mr. Allison says, by negotiating a long peace with China.” — WALL STREET JOURNAL “Allison raises critical issues with a sense of both drama and history. His prose should alarm serious American thinkers... and perhaps divert us from debates over backchannels to Russia, presidential tweets and the ghost wiretapping of Trump Towers. And if you want some serious strategic imagination, pay special attention to the last ten pages or so. Worth the read.” —MICHAEL HAYDEN, former Director of the CIA, in The Cipher Brief “Can the US avoid confrontation with China? That is the geopolitical question of our age. In most cases, Thucydides was right: when a new power arises in the world, it results in a clash with the dominant power. This important —
About the Author
Product details
- Publisher : Mariner Books; Reprint edition (August 7, 2018)
- Language : English
- Paperback : 400 pages
- ISBN-10 : 1328915387
- ISBN-13 : 978-1328915382
- Item Weight : 2.31 pounds
- Dimensions : 5.31 x 0.99 x 8 inches
- Best Sellers Rank: #12,863 in Books (See Top 100 in Books)
- #5 in Asian Politics
- #9 in Chinese History (Books)
- #32 in History & Theory of Politics
- Customer Reviews:
About the author
Graham Allison is Director of Harvard Kennedy School’s Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs and the bestselling author of Destined for War: America, China, and Thucydides's Trap (2017); Lee Kuan Yew: The Grand Master's Insights on China, the United States, and the World (2013); Nuclear Terrorism: The Ultimate Preventable Catastrophe (2004); and Essence of Decision: Explaining the Cuban Missile Crisis (1971, 1999). Founding dean of the Harvard Kennedy School, Dr. Allison has served as Assistant Secretary of Defense and advised the secretaries of defense under every president from Reagan to Obama. He has twice been awarded the Department of Defense's highest civilian award, the Distinguished Public Service Medal, and serves on the Advisory boards of the Secretary of State and Secretary of Defense.
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Part I of his book summarizes China’s ascent, a topic revisited in rich detail in Part III, and Part II provides historical background to Thucydides’ trap and an overview of sixteen cases during the past five hundred years “in which an ascending power challenges an established power.” Twelve resulted in war.
Chapter 6 of Part III provides a fascinating, if unsettling, account of China’s aspirations under President Xi Jinping. Under Xi, what China wants will sound only too familiar to readers: “Make China Great Again” or, in a later formulation, “Make China Proud Again.” Allison’s sketch of Xi’s life is fascinating. Xi, a man clever and wise enough to have been mentored by Singapore’s great leader, Kuan Yew Lee, is very much the “self-made man” uniformly beloved in this country. Xi is no idle dreamer. “To achieve the great revival of the Chinese nation” Xi maintains that China “must ensure there is unison between a prosperous country and a strong military.”
The chapter “From Here to War” is an engrossing account of various scenarios that might well lead to war. Having skated the surface of such scenario development some years ago, I was struck at how the emergence of cyber warfare can affect the perception of leaders and alter the outcome of hostilities. In fact, one difficulty is that the scenarios leading to war seem far more powerful - that is, they appear more likely - than the paths to peace covered near the book’s end. In making that claim, I do not intend to convey the impression that this book is a doomsday read. It’s not. What it does teach us is that policy-makers must undertake a serious effort toward the objective of escaping Thucydides’ trap. That, in turn, will entail the discipline of not to being overly distracted by the endless cycle of events in the Middle East.
This is a wide ranging text, and the wisdom it imparts reflects the decades of experience Mr. Allison brings to the task, both as a long serving Harvard academic and an advisor to the defense departments of both parties. I cannot recommend this book highly enough.
One of the criticisms mentioned by the critics is the the author's alleged lack of knowledge about China and its realities. For one, it is true that dr. Allison got many facts, numbers, mostly, wrong in the book. Was it due to lack of proper preparation and other, more nuanced sources? Perhaps. One of these is his claim that over 20 million Chinese left the mainland for Taiwan in the aftermath of the 1949 communist victory, while it was between 1-2 million people, including roughly 600 thousand military, and most of them connected to to the Kuomintang. I understand this is factually wrong and should be pointed out, but it is essentially a sideline comment, having little or nothing to do with the thesis of the book, which is the titular "Thucydides's Trap."
Next, there's the criticism that Graham Allison is too fixated on the idea that the Chinese actually like the CCP's reforms, however bloodthirsty and outsized they might seem to Washington pundits, and are more interested in China displacing the U.S. as the leader in Asia. Actually, both polls done by the CCP and outside parties, including even Harvard Kennedy School show a major support of the population for the central government, over 80%, mostly due to Xi's rejuvenation of the PLA and unprecedented crackdown on corruption. Most of the discontent is usually placed on local governments, which have much more autonomy in China than they do, for instance in Europe or even the U.S. Thus, the party is avoiding much of the criticism for everyday matters and gaining support for the overall direction in which the country is going.
All in all, this review was not meant to be a praise of the book, really, because as I said, it seems to have a clear thesis and does its job neatly. Rather, I wanted to ask anyone who is considering reading it, but was discouraged by the harsh critiques online, to go ahead and focus on the important stuff.
Top reviews from other countries
Ao longo dos anos, algumas dessas disputas se tornaram guerras concretas, como o caso ateniense, mas também a Alemanha e a Grã-Bretanha, no início do século XX. Outros conflitos foram latentes, mas não descambaram para a guerra direta, como os USA e a URSS, durante a Guerra Fria.
Agora, a potência emergente é a China, que desafia a hegemonia que os USA desfrutam desde a queda do Muro de Berlim. A invasão da Ucrânia revela que a Rússia ainda não aceita seu papel nesse novo cenário. Suas ogivas nucleares garantem o seu lugar à mesa.
A China tem sido o fiel da balança nesse conflito e sua resistência em condenar o regime de Putin demonstra que ela não está disposta a aceitar os “desígnios do ocidente”, garantindo sua influência na Eurásia.
Não é possível prever o futuro, mas esse livro, com a ajuda da história, nos ajuda a entender o que pode vir por aí.
The author is unbiased and provides a fair assessment of both sides. The author does a good job criticizing and praising both sides when needed. I am no fan of the Chinese government but when China does something like lifting millions of people out of poverty, I do think it is a feat to be praised. Don't get me wrong, I don't like the Chinese government as demonstrated by their reckless and unbelievable behaviour in recent years but understanding the success of China is the key to understand their society and culture and how they were able to maintain their power. Graham also provides times and scenarios where both governments had acted arrogantly or let their ignorance get to them. I do think it is important to show how both countries aren't as perfect as they seem. But given the choice, America, despite all its problems is the beacon of hope, change and democracy.
Graham Allison does an excellent examination of the cultural difference and nuance of both countries and how this plays in the bigger picture. To China, the US is an anomaly and it is only a matter of time before China ascends to its rightful place in what it believes as the leader of Asia if not the world. To the United States, China is a totalitarian state that is hell-bent on creating a new world order that will kill democracies and American ideals. China sees itself as the centre of the universe while the US sees itself as number one. However, this isn’t only the culture lesson as Graham also examines other cultural nuances, behaviour and thinking.
Nationalism and constant reminders of the century of humiliation created a ticking time bomb and will cause trouble for the CCP if they were to ever back down. This was a huge topic that rarely gets explored and Graham does a good job exploring it in his scenarios of what might trigger the next conflict. Graham also explores this in other aspects and how China instills a sense of duty to everyone and even those living in the west who have Chinese ancestry to act in defence and improvement of the motherland.
The book talks about History, economics, Domestic politics, International/geopolitics and so much more. The book also has extra pages of information for those who are interested. The book includes an index, is full of rich information, detailed citations, footnotes and sources. Really useful for any geopolitical buffs and for further digging on interesting statements such as Hillary Clinton saying how she doesn't want to live in a world dominated by the Chinese. Just be warned that the book does go a bit heavy on the history side but it is crucial in understanding the world we live in today.
Although the book does provide a blueprint for peace, I believe that war may happen in the future. Given the information that Graham brought up shows that humans would always repeat the same mistakes and given enough time, it wouldn't be surprising if China and the US fought a war. Let this book serve as a warning or a preview of what might come in the future.