Petr Topychkanov
SIPRI, Nuclear Disarmament, Arms Control and Non-proliferation Programme, Department Member
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South Asia, South Asian Studies, South Asia (History), Politics and Terrorism in South Asia, Indian and Pakistani Foreign Policy, Drug Trafficking in South Asia, US role in South Asia, War on Terrorism etc., South Asia Security Issues, Religious extremism and terrorism with particular reference to South Asia; Nuclear issue and Kashmir, and 30 moreModern South Asia, Contemporary History of South Asia, Nonproliferation Treaties, Nonproliferation, Nuclear Non-Proliferation Policy, Nuclear Weapons, Pakistan, US-Pakistan Relations, US-India-Pakistan Relations, Pakistan occupied Kashmir(PoK), Pakistan Studies, India, History of India, Religious and Political Violence, Conflict Resolution and Transformation, Iran, International Relations, Critical Security Studies, Identity, Conflict and Conflict Resolution, Terrorism, Religion and Politics, India's Foreign Policy, South Asia In World Affairs, Indian Politics, Indo-US Relations, Sri Lanka, Nepal, Bangladesh, Religious Minorities, Russia Pakistan Relations, and India and Russia edit
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I am a Senior Researcher in the SIPRI Nuclear Disarmament, Arms Control and Non-proliferation Programme. I work on is... moreI am a Senior Researcher in the SIPRI Nuclear Disarmament, Arms Control and Non-proliferation Programme. I work on issues related to the nuclear nonproliferation, disarmament, arms control, and impact of new technologies on the strategic stability. From 2006 to 2017 I was a research fellow at the Carnegie Moscow Center’s Nonproliferation Program.Prior to joining SIPRI in 2018, I held also the position of Senior Researcher at the Center for International Security at the Primakov National Research Institute of World Economy and International Relations of the Russian Academy of Sciences. I have been an expert at the Russian International Affairs Council since 2014. edit
This report provides an overview of views on nuclear postures and escalation affecting South Asia, based on 119 research interviews conducted in 2020 with military, nuclear, political and regional experts from India, Pakistan, China,... more
This report provides an overview of views on nuclear postures and escalation affecting South Asia, based on 119 research interviews conducted in 2020 with military, nuclear, political and regional experts from India, Pakistan, China, Russia and the United States. The publication also builds on the findings from a virtual workshop that SIPRI hosted on 8 and 9 December 2020 on ‘Nuclear challenges in South Asia: Views from India, Pakistan, China, Russia, Australia, New Zealand and the USA’.
These discussions revealed a variety of interlocking insights on such issues as no first use, lowered nuclear thresholds, conventional and nuclear entanglement and emerging technologies that are shaping strategic stability. The publication consists of five country-focused sections that explore nuclear postures, strategic technologies and escalatory risks, as well as conclusions that offer building blocks for the next steps on engagement.
This report was prepared in the framework of the SIPRI project Assessing Nuclear Deterrence Risks and Challenges in South Asia, generously supported by the German Federal Foreign Office.
These discussions revealed a variety of interlocking insights on such issues as no first use, lowered nuclear thresholds, conventional and nuclear entanglement and emerging technologies that are shaping strategic stability. The publication consists of five country-focused sections that explore nuclear postures, strategic technologies and escalatory risks, as well as conclusions that offer building blocks for the next steps on engagement.
This report was prepared in the framework of the SIPRI project Assessing Nuclear Deterrence Risks and Challenges in South Asia, generously supported by the German Federal Foreign Office.
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This report aims to offer the reader a concrete understanding of how the adoption of artificial intelligence (AI) by nuclear-armed states could have an impact on strategic stability and nuclear risk and how related challenges could be... more
This report aims to offer the reader a concrete understanding of how the adoption of artificial intelligence (AI) by nuclear-armed states could have an impact on strategic stability and nuclear risk and how related challenges could be addressed at the policy level. The analysis builds on extensive data collection on the AI-related technical and strategic developments of nuclear-armed states. It also builds on the authors’ conclusions from a series of regional workshops that SIPRI organized in Sweden (on Euro-Atlantic dynamics), China (on East Asian dynamics) and Sri Lanka (on South Asian dynamics), as well as a transregional workshop in New York. At these workshops, AI experts, scholars and practitioners who work on arms control, nuclear strategy and regional security had the opportunity to discuss why and how the adoption of AI capabilities by nuclear-armed states could have an impact on strategic stability and nuclear risk within or among regions.
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This edited volume is the third of a series of three. They form part of a SIPRI project that explores regional perspectives and trends related to the impact that recent advances in artificial intelligence could have on nuclear weapons and... more
This edited volume is the third of a series of three. They form part of a SIPRI project that explores regional perspectives and trends related to the impact that recent advances in artificial intelligence could have on nuclear weapons and doctrines, as well as on strategic stability and nuclear risk. This volume assembles the perspectives of eight experts on South Asia on why and how machine learning and autonomy may become the focus of an arms race among nuclear-armed states. It further explores how the adoption of these technologies may have an impact on their calculation of strategic stability and nuclear risk at the regional and transregional levels.
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Co-authored with Prof. Vladimir Moskalenko
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Bearing in mind the particular importance Russia attaches to its relations with India, the Russian International Affairs Council has arranged a series of expert workshops dedicated to specific areas of bilateral relations. The following... more
Bearing in mind the particular importance Russia attaches to its relations with India, the Russian International Affairs Council has arranged a series of expert workshops dedicated to specific areas of bilateral relations. The following postulates represent the preliminary results of this work. The key objective here is to test some hypotheses related to developing cooperation between Russia and India.
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This SIPRI Insights paper explores a series of nuclear transparency and confidencebuilding measures (CBMs) proposed by military, nuclear, political and regional experts from China, India, Pakistan, Russia and the United States to address... more
This SIPRI Insights paper explores a series of nuclear transparency and confidencebuilding measures (CBMs) proposed by military, nuclear, political and regional experts from China, India, Pakistan, Russia and the United States to address nuclear challenges in South Asia. It categorizes these bilateral, trilateral and multilateral measures into doctrinal dialogues and joint threat assessment exercises; communication lines, prenotification and de-alerting; and development and employment of strategic technologies. The paper then provides a spectrum of viability across which it identifies proposals with the greatest potential, moderate potential and the least potential for reinvigorating nuclear transparency measures and CBMs in South Asia.
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Before the global spread of Covid-19, nuclear-armed China, India and Pakistan lacked official diplomatic exchanges to address nuclear weaponrelated issues. The pandemic then halted even unofficial dialogues between these countries, which... more
Before the global spread of Covid-19, nuclear-armed China, India and Pakistan lacked official diplomatic exchanges to address nuclear weaponrelated issues. The pandemic then halted even unofficial dialogues between these countries, which had existed in various bilateral and multilateral formats. As a result, China, India and Pakistan are faced with the challenge of keeping a desirable level of predictability concerning each other's nuclear postures and capabilities.
This SIPRI Policy Brief explores ways of dealing with this challenge and enhancing nuclear dialogues in South Asia. It considers both longer-term developments in the region and the recent implications of Covid-19. The paper finds that bilateral dialogue remains more feasible than trilateral dialogue between China, India and Pakistan. Nevertheless, it argues that these countries may need to address specific issues in broader formats. Emphasized by the Covid-19 crisis, such issues notably include emerging technologies and autonomy.
On the one hand, these technologies support diplomacy digitalization, allowing nuclear-armed states to use online and mixed formats to develop nuclear dialogues between them. On the other hand, if applied in the military area, these technologies may affect nuclear postures and capabilities, and contribute to military escalation.
This SIPRI Policy Brief explores ways of dealing with this challenge and enhancing nuclear dialogues in South Asia. It considers both longer-term developments in the region and the recent implications of Covid-19. The paper finds that bilateral dialogue remains more feasible than trilateral dialogue between China, India and Pakistan. Nevertheless, it argues that these countries may need to address specific issues in broader formats. Emphasized by the Covid-19 crisis, such issues notably include emerging technologies and autonomy.
On the one hand, these technologies support diplomacy digitalization, allowing nuclear-armed states to use online and mixed formats to develop nuclear dialogues between them. On the other hand, if applied in the military area, these technologies may affect nuclear postures and capabilities, and contribute to military escalation.
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This report focuses on the risks that a lack of nuclear restraint pose for international security. One the one hand, the problem has to do with uncertainty regarding the first use of nuclear weapons, which has increased in recent years as... more
This report focuses on the risks that a lack of nuclear restraint pose for international security. One the one hand, the problem has to do with uncertainty regarding the first use of nuclear weapons, which has increased in recent years as a result of technological developments, political tensions, and the deadlock in nuclear arms control. One the other hand, there is a longer-term trend of a lowering nuclear threshold in response to WMD proliferation threats by non-nuclear weapon states. After identifying some of the most problematic aspects of the current nuclear policies of the five nuclear weapon states (NWS), the report makes the case for greater restraint, including recommendations for reducing doctrinal ambiguity and more credible assurances that the threshold for nuclear weapon use remains high. The report also seeks to provide conceptual tools for a broad international dialogue on nuclear doctrines, based on a recent agreement by the NWS to pursue such dialogue in the 1968 Treaty on the NonProliferation of Nuclear Weapons (Non-Proliferation Treaty, NPT) context.
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The article examines the recent decisions taken by central nuclear-armed states to give expanded roles to nuclear weapons in their military plans. The decisions reflect the increased salience of nuclear weapons in their national security... more
The article examines the recent decisions taken by central nuclear-armed states to give expanded roles to nuclear weapons in their military plans. The decisions reflect the increased salience of nuclear weapons in their national security strategies. It marks a reversal of the post-cold war trend toward the relative marginalization of nuclear weapons. Political and military leaders in these countries are moving away from the goal of limiting the nuclear weapons role to the sole purpose of deterring aggression with the use of the same type of arms. Instead, they are emphasizing nuclear options to respond to conventional and even cyber-attacks. This lowering of the nuclear threshold coincides with the stagnation of the nuclear arms control. Simultaneously, the political distrust grows between Russia and the USA, NATO, and also between the United States and China.
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This SIPRI Insights seeks to contribute to the operationalization of nuclear disarmament verification. It explores existing solutions to define a baseline for new arms control and disarmament verification regimes, and considers the... more
This SIPRI Insights seeks to contribute to the operationalization of nuclear disarmament verification. It explores existing solutions to define a baseline for new arms control and disarmament verification regimes, and considers the requirements for verification under the 2017 Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons (TPNW). Existing solutions might be sufficient to enable several near-term disarmament steps and to lay the foundations for a comprehensive nuclear disarmament verification regime supporting the TPNW.
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Recognizing that the current international context is hardly conducive to arms control and disarmament, SIPRI working paper ‘Setting the stage for progress towards nuclear disarmament’ identifies 10 practical steps to revitalize the 1968... more
Recognizing that the current international context is hardly conducive to arms control and disarmament, SIPRI working paper ‘Setting the stage for progress towards nuclear disarmament’ identifies 10 practical steps to revitalize the 1968 Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) as the principal normative and legal foundation of the global nuclear disarmament and non-proliferation regime. At the same time, it recognizes the NPT’s inherent compatibility with other disarmament initiatives, most notably the 2017 Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons. In addition to restoring a sense of common purpose and addressing ‘old’ nuclear weapon-related risks, the paper highlights ‘new’ risks arising from developments in conventional capabilities and emerging technologies. The overarching objective is to set the stage for future concrete steps and initiatives to reduce the role of nuclear weapons and to eventually eliminate them.
The paper was co-authored with Dr Tytti Erästö, Dr Sibylle Bauer, and Shannon N. Kile.
The paper was co-authored with Dr Tytti Erästö, Dr Sibylle Bauer, and Shannon N. Kile.
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For at least the next decade, threats emanating from South Asia will directly challenge Russia’s security. The ongoing Afghan conflict and cross-border issues such as terrorism, organized crime, and nuclear security, all of which... more
For at least the next decade, threats emanating from South Asia will directly challenge Russia’s security. The ongoing Afghan conflict and cross-border issues such as terrorism, organized crime, and nuclear security, all of which reverberate in Moscow, guarantee long-term engagement between Russia and Pakistan. To address these shared challenges, Moscow needs a new approach to South Asia that prioritizes developing Russian-Pakistani relations.
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Russia’s pivot to Asia has received considerable attention in 2014, primarily for the economic implications of a stronger Russia-China relationship. However, of far greater importance from a geopolitical perspective may be Russia’s... more
Russia’s pivot to Asia has received considerable attention in 2014, primarily for the economic implications of a stronger Russia-China relationship. However, of far greater importance from a geopolitical perspective may be Russia’s military reorientation to Asia. For years, Russia has watched with increasing concern the appearance of new territorial disputes in East Asia, the growing confidence of China in asserting its military influence in the region, and the signs of an emerging Asia-Pacific military buildup that has the potential to radically change the balance of power in the region. In this monthly report, we cover the growth of military capabilities in the Asia-Pacific, analyze why both China and the United States may be forced to re-think their military roles in the region, and summarize Russia’s potential military response – both conventional and nuclear – to the escalating arms race. The post-Cold War order in Asia-Pacific, which emphasized the military dominance of the U.S. as the ultimate guarantor of security, may be shifting in response to new military and economic trends. Russia’s ability to understand and respond to these trends may determine its positions as a full-fledged Euro-Pacific power.
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“‘In 2012, the unequal relationship between India and Pakistan is spinning sharply out of control. Terrorists attack the Indian parliament and kill two ministers and 12 MPs. There is no doubt that Pakistan had a hand in this, and in a... more
“‘In 2012, the unequal relationship between India and Pakistan is spinning sharply out of control. Terrorists attack the Indian parliament and kill two ministers and 12 MPs. There is no doubt that Pakistan had a hand in this, and in a month India goes to war. Pakistan threatens to use nuclear weapons if India does not stop the invasion. Indian troops close in on Lahore, and Pakistan launches Ghauri missiles with nuclear warheads aimed at Delhi... A long-range radar for missile defense detects the Ghauri missiles 30 seconds after their launch. Five minutes later... the missile defense system launches interceptor missiles. Four Pakistani Ghauri missiles explode in the sky and fall harmlessly to the ground in pieces... The city of Delhi is saved. India carries out a nuclear counterattack that, in the words of one military officer, ‘will put an end to Pakistan once and for all.’ Science fiction? Not entirely.” This text was published by Raj Chengappa, a columnist for the Indian magazine India Today, in the official publication of the Indian Embassy in Moscow in 2008.
Setting aside for the moment an analysis of India’s possible use of a missile defense system, it is necessary to note that the initial stage of the author’s fictitious conflict repeats the course of many Pakistani-Indian conflicts. Among the most serious of these were the crises of 2001-2002 and 2008, which were characterized by a common development: an act of terrorism in India, followed by a reciprocal show of strength and a growth of mutual tensions in India and Pakistan. Further escalation has so far been avoided, in no small measure thanks to active steps taken by other states.
Raj Chengappa’s text demonstrates the consequences that could result from further escalation, including large-scale military operations with the use of conventional—and possibly nuclear—forces. For many specialists in India and Pakistan, it is clear that in the event of nuclear war between two powers of such territorial proximity, there cannot be a winner. Significant areas of the South Asian region would be rendered uninhabitable. The entire ecological system of the region would change. The consequences of a nuclear exchange would be felt far beyond South Asia.
According to Raj Chengappa’s scenario, Indian missile defense could save Delhi from a nuclear attack, but it could not prevent a nuclear catastrophe. In fact, for the moment, it is difficult not only to consider Indian missile defense effective, but to see it as a system that really exists. India has not completed a missile defense system by 2012, in part due to its limited resources, scientific and technical difficulties, and obstacles encountered while obtaining the necessary technologies on the international market.
However, an important role was also played by the deficit of expert consensus in India in regard to the expediency of the substantial costs associated with developing missile defense, which, as it seems at the moment, cannot guarantee the country’s protection from missile and nuclear threats. Moreover, it is expected that India’s success in this area will provoke responses on the part of its potential rivals, Pakistan and China, that will require additional spending.
Despite the deficit of consensus, India continues development in the area of missile defense. Prospects for its success are actively discussed in India and abroad. Concerns about the reaction from Pakistan and China are beginning to be substantiated. The persistent uncertainty regarding Indian missile defense continues to adversely affect regional security. As a result, the assessments of missile and nuclear threats in South Asia, the prospects for missile defense in India, and the reactions on the part of its potential adversaries all remain relevant.
Setting aside for the moment an analysis of India’s possible use of a missile defense system, it is necessary to note that the initial stage of the author’s fictitious conflict repeats the course of many Pakistani-Indian conflicts. Among the most serious of these were the crises of 2001-2002 and 2008, which were characterized by a common development: an act of terrorism in India, followed by a reciprocal show of strength and a growth of mutual tensions in India and Pakistan. Further escalation has so far been avoided, in no small measure thanks to active steps taken by other states.
Raj Chengappa’s text demonstrates the consequences that could result from further escalation, including large-scale military operations with the use of conventional—and possibly nuclear—forces. For many specialists in India and Pakistan, it is clear that in the event of nuclear war between two powers of such territorial proximity, there cannot be a winner. Significant areas of the South Asian region would be rendered uninhabitable. The entire ecological system of the region would change. The consequences of a nuclear exchange would be felt far beyond South Asia.
According to Raj Chengappa’s scenario, Indian missile defense could save Delhi from a nuclear attack, but it could not prevent a nuclear catastrophe. In fact, for the moment, it is difficult not only to consider Indian missile defense effective, but to see it as a system that really exists. India has not completed a missile defense system by 2012, in part due to its limited resources, scientific and technical difficulties, and obstacles encountered while obtaining the necessary technologies on the international market.
However, an important role was also played by the deficit of expert consensus in India in regard to the expediency of the substantial costs associated with developing missile defense, which, as it seems at the moment, cannot guarantee the country’s protection from missile and nuclear threats. Moreover, it is expected that India’s success in this area will provoke responses on the part of its potential rivals, Pakistan and China, that will require additional spending.
Despite the deficit of consensus, India continues development in the area of missile defense. Prospects for its success are actively discussed in India and abroad. Concerns about the reaction from Pakistan and China are beginning to be substantiated. The persistent uncertainty regarding Indian missile defense continues to adversely affect regional security. As a result, the assessments of missile and nuclear threats in South Asia, the prospects for missile defense in India, and the reactions on the part of its potential adversaries all remain relevant.
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In the new issue of the Carnegie Moscow Center's Working Papers series, Peter Topychkanov analyzes South Asian regional strategic security issues, the role of nuclear weapons in Indo-Pakistani relations, the external and internal factors... more
In the new issue of the Carnegie Moscow Center's Working Papers series, Peter Topychkanov analyzes South Asian regional strategic security issues, the role of nuclear weapons in Indo-Pakistani relations, the external and internal factors shaping these countries’ nuclear postures, and security-enhancing efforts emanating from inside and outside the region.
Topychkanov describes the strategic security situation in South Asia as rather unstable. Among the issues are: a high risk of conflict between India and Pakistan caused by cross-border terrorism, accidents with nuclear weapons in both states, the Kashmir dispute, and the problem of sharing water from the Indus river. Major efforts to enhance regional security must be made by India and Pakistan. The author also argues that third countries, international organizations, and nonproliferation regimes can play a positive role as well.
According to Topychkanov, both nuclear optimists and pessimists agree that nuclear weapons proliferation in South Asia will not lead to a deliberate outbreak of large-scale war. Neither Indian nor Pakistani leaders wish to initiate a conflict that could end in a nuclear exchange with disastrous consequences. Still, a catastrophic conflict could occur even though neither the Indians nor the Pakistanis intend to start a nuclear war, and all measures must be taken to prevent it.
The author concludes that India and Pakistan should be engaged in nonproliferation regimes on a nondiscriminatory basis (IAEA, NSG, MTCR, etc.). Engagement would be in the interest of India and Pakistan and would set a good example for the nuclear threshold states. The incentives of nuclear cooperation must be made conditional on acceptance of NPT commitments and IAEA safeguards by recipient states.
Topychkanov describes the strategic security situation in South Asia as rather unstable. Among the issues are: a high risk of conflict between India and Pakistan caused by cross-border terrorism, accidents with nuclear weapons in both states, the Kashmir dispute, and the problem of sharing water from the Indus river. Major efforts to enhance regional security must be made by India and Pakistan. The author also argues that third countries, international organizations, and nonproliferation regimes can play a positive role as well.
According to Topychkanov, both nuclear optimists and pessimists agree that nuclear weapons proliferation in South Asia will not lead to a deliberate outbreak of large-scale war. Neither Indian nor Pakistani leaders wish to initiate a conflict that could end in a nuclear exchange with disastrous consequences. Still, a catastrophic conflict could occur even though neither the Indians nor the Pakistanis intend to start a nuclear war, and all measures must be taken to prevent it.
The author concludes that India and Pakistan should be engaged in nonproliferation regimes on a nondiscriminatory basis (IAEA, NSG, MTCR, etc.). Engagement would be in the interest of India and Pakistan and would set a good example for the nuclear threshold states. The incentives of nuclear cooperation must be made conditional on acceptance of NPT commitments and IAEA safeguards by recipient states.
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Russia should not treat the post-2014 situation in Afghanistan as a potential disaster for its security in the south. Nevertheless, the coalition withdrawal from Afghanistan will force Russia to take more responsibility for regional... more
Russia should not treat the post-2014 situation in Afghanistan as a potential disaster for its security in the south. Nevertheless, the coalition withdrawal from Afghanistan will force Russia to take more responsibility for regional security.
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This paper analyzes the current situation in Pakistan through the prism of the country’s historical experience, proposing new approaches to the threats to Pakistan’s territorial integrity and the stability and security of South Asia as a... more
This paper analyzes the current situation in Pakistan through the prism of the country’s historical experience, proposing new approaches to the threats to Pakistan’s territorial integrity and the stability and security of South Asia as a whole.
Conventional political science labels, such as authoritarianism, democracy, Islamism and secularism, are of little use when applied to Pakistan. “Pakistan’s history shows that giving priority to Islam can be combined with a democratic system of government, as well as with an authoritarian regime,” Topychkanov writes. Islam’s supremacy in Pakistani society has manifested itself primarily through Muslim nationalism and Islamic socialism, as well as through various radical forms of Islamic ideology. Experiments with Islam, which is the foundation of the country’s national identity, are therefore not the solution to Pakistan’s problems. Resolving these problems requires comprehensive solutions that encompass the political, economic and social spheres.
Topychkanov also notes that the external environment, particularly problems in Afghanistan, has had a negative impact on Pakistan’s political development. Protracted or failed operations of the International Security Assistance Force in Afghanistan would strengthen pro-Taliban forces in Pakistan, while stabilization in Afghanistan would help weaken these groups and stop the rise of support for religious extremism. The escalation of tensions between Pakistan and India also contributes to the spread of extremism in Pakistan.
Topychkanov proposes a number of policy approaches, suggesting that the planning and implementation of aid programs for Pakistan should meet three main criteria:
they must be oriented towards the long term
be strictly controlled at all stages
be targeted.
Conventional political science labels, such as authoritarianism, democracy, Islamism and secularism, are of little use when applied to Pakistan. “Pakistan’s history shows that giving priority to Islam can be combined with a democratic system of government, as well as with an authoritarian regime,” Topychkanov writes. Islam’s supremacy in Pakistani society has manifested itself primarily through Muslim nationalism and Islamic socialism, as well as through various radical forms of Islamic ideology. Experiments with Islam, which is the foundation of the country’s national identity, are therefore not the solution to Pakistan’s problems. Resolving these problems requires comprehensive solutions that encompass the political, economic and social spheres.
Topychkanov also notes that the external environment, particularly problems in Afghanistan, has had a negative impact on Pakistan’s political development. Protracted or failed operations of the International Security Assistance Force in Afghanistan would strengthen pro-Taliban forces in Pakistan, while stabilization in Afghanistan would help weaken these groups and stop the rise of support for religious extremism. The escalation of tensions between Pakistan and India also contributes to the spread of extremism in Pakistan.
Topychkanov proposes a number of policy approaches, suggesting that the planning and implementation of aid programs for Pakistan should meet three main criteria:
they must be oriented towards the long term
be strictly controlled at all stages
be targeted.
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This chapter covers five areas of cooperation between India and Russia, namely education, academia, business promotion, media, and cultural exchange. Additionally, the text contains tables covering all bilateral documents signed after the... more
This chapter covers five areas of cooperation between India and Russia, namely education, academia, business promotion, media, and cultural exchange. Additionally, the text contains tables covering all bilateral documents signed after the Cold War.
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This essay offers a brief analysis of the development of autonomy in the nuclear weapon and related systems of the USSR and Russia. This essay starts by reviewing the use of autonomy and automation in Soviet weapon development during the... more
This essay offers a brief analysis of the development of autonomy in the nuclear weapon and related systems of the USSR and Russia. This essay starts by reviewing the use of autonomy and automation in Soviet weapon development during the cold war (section I). It then looks at post-cold war developments in Russia (section II).
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"The main authors are some of the most distinguished and well-connected nuclear policy scholars in Russia and China: Alexey Arbatov, Major General (retired) Vladimir Dvorkin, and Petr Topychkanov, and Tong Zhao and Li Bin. These teams set... more
"The main authors are some of the most distinguished and well-connected nuclear policy scholars in Russia and China: Alexey Arbatov, Major General (retired) Vladimir Dvorkin, and Petr Topychkanov, and Tong Zhao and Li Bin. These teams set out to answer two questions: How serious are the escalation risks arising from entanglement? And, how do the authors’ views compare to those of their countries’ strategic communities? The conclusion represents my view of the policy implications of their answers."
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Although India has been facing threats in cyber space since the end of the XX century, for a long time it has not paid much attention to this issue. Only in 2012, when series of large-scale cyber-attacks were undertaken against civilian... more
Although India has been facing threats in cyber space since the end of the XX century, for a long time it has not paid much attention to this issue. Only in 2012, when series of large-scale cyber-attacks were undertaken against civilian and military targets in India, the authorities have taken major steps to ensure cyber security.
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India and Cyber Security
Chapter one, “Features of the Outer Space Environment,” by Petr Topychkanov, examines the specific nature of outer space. It provides an overview of the various types of spacecraft and their operation, and explains the relationship... more
Chapter one, “Features of the Outer Space Environment,” by Petr Topychkanov, examines the specific nature of outer space. It provides an overview of the various types of spacecraft and their operation, and explains the relationship between satellite capabilities and the orbits in which they are placed. It also provides a comparative analysis of the operational use of armed forces on land, at sea, in the air, and in space.
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After the victory of the BJP and its leader Narendra Modi there were questions on probable changes of India’s foreign policy generically, and Indian relations with Russia and the United States specifically.... more
After the victory of the BJP and its leader Narendra Modi there were questions on probable changes of India’s foreign policy generically, and Indian relations with Russia and the United States specifically. Some Russian observers look at these questions in the context of a US–Russia rivalry for India.
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In this paper, the experts of renown analyze in great detail the internal and external factors pushing the two countries to opt for nuclear weapons. Indian and Pakistani contributors explain their respective countries‘ reasoning for the... more
In this paper, the experts of renown analyze in great detail the
internal and external factors pushing the two countries to opt for nuclear weapons. Indian and Pakistani contributors explain their respective countries‘ reasoning for the need to develop nuclear capabilities. Russian experts in the issues of this region review in a careful manner the features of the two sides‘ nuclear programmes and their development, as well as the two countries‘ perception of the role of nuclear weapons and the concepts governing its use.
internal and external factors pushing the two countries to opt for nuclear weapons. Indian and Pakistani contributors explain their respective countries‘ reasoning for the need to develop nuclear capabilities. Russian experts in the issues of this region review in a careful manner the features of the two sides‘ nuclear programmes and their development, as well as the two countries‘ perception of the role of nuclear weapons and the concepts governing its use.
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The findings indicate high conflict potential imbedded in the relations within the India–China–Pakistan triangle. Political dialogue and trade and economic ties between these countries do not guarantee against... more
The findings indicate high conflict potential imbedded in the relations within the India–China–Pakistan triangle. Political dialogue and trade and economic ties between these countries do not guarantee against conflict escalation fraught with further escalation to a nuclear war. There are no conventional or nuclear arms control regimes or verifiable confidence-building measures between these states.
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The volume provides IMEMO contributions to the Russian edition of the 2012 SIPRI Yearbook: Armaments, Disarmament and International Security. The contributors address issues involving transition to multilateral nuclear disarmament... more
The volume provides IMEMO contributions to the Russian
edition of the 2012 SIPRI Yearbook: Armaments, Disarmament and International Security. The contributors address issues involving transition to multilateral nuclear disarmament (engaging ‘third’ nuclear weapons states in nuclear arms negotiations; frameworks of multilateral nuclear disarmament; a possible basis of practical negotiations; BMD developments and their implications for strategic stability).
This year’s edition also highlights problems of limiting international trade in small arms and light weapons; the status of the European conventional arms control regime and ways leading to meaningful conventional arms limitation arrangements in Europe; military posture of post-Soviet Central Asian states and regional security challenges.
edition of the 2012 SIPRI Yearbook: Armaments, Disarmament and International Security. The contributors address issues involving transition to multilateral nuclear disarmament (engaging ‘third’ nuclear weapons states in nuclear arms negotiations; frameworks of multilateral nuclear disarmament; a possible basis of practical negotiations; BMD developments and their implications for strategic stability).
This year’s edition also highlights problems of limiting international trade in small arms and light weapons; the status of the European conventional arms control regime and ways leading to meaningful conventional arms limitation arrangements in Europe; military posture of post-Soviet Central Asian states and regional security challenges.
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This book, produced within the framework of the Carnegie Moscow Center’s Nonproliferation Program, has been written by leading Russian and foreign experts in the field of missile defense. In examining this complex issue, the authors... more
This book, produced within the framework of the Carnegie Moscow Center’s Nonproliferation Program, has been written by leading Russian and foreign experts in the field of missile defense. In examining this complex issue, the authors address its historical evolution and its military technical, strategic, political, and legal aspects. The book will be of interest to experts in international relations and security, as will as to a broader readership.
The fifteenth chapter (Natalia Romashkina and Petr Topychkanov) analyzes regional missile defense programs in third countries (the Middle East and Asia-Pacific region).
The fifteenth chapter (Natalia Romashkina and Petr Topychkanov) analyzes regional missile defense programs in third countries (the Middle East and Asia-Pacific region).
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This edited volume consists of nine chapters that deal with various aspects of the Iranian nuclear agreement reached on 2 April 2015. Opening with a technical assessment of the Iranian nuclear agreement by Sheel Kant Sharma, the monograph... more
This edited volume consists of nine chapters that deal with various aspects of the Iranian nuclear agreement reached on 2 April 2015. Opening with a technical assessment of the Iranian nuclear agreement by Sheel Kant Sharma, the monograph has
two chapters focusing on regional reactions: an Israeli perspective authored by Emily Landau, and Gulf reactions written by Kanchi Gupta. Two chapters analysing the three
major-power perspectives are included: the US perspective, written by Sylvia Mishra and Uma Purushothaman; the Russian perspective authored by Petr Topychkanov; and the European perspective, by Britta Petersen. Two chapters in the volume are focused on the Indian perspective, one by Arka Biswas providing an overall assessment of India’s response to the Iran nuclear agreement, and a second one by Akhilesh Sati,
exploring the possible implications on India’s energy security. Lastly, Rakesh Sood has authored a chapter looking into the impact of the Iranian nuclear agreement on the global non-proliferation architecture.
two chapters focusing on regional reactions: an Israeli perspective authored by Emily Landau, and Gulf reactions written by Kanchi Gupta. Two chapters analysing the three
major-power perspectives are included: the US perspective, written by Sylvia Mishra and Uma Purushothaman; the Russian perspective authored by Petr Topychkanov; and the European perspective, by Britta Petersen. Two chapters in the volume are focused on the Indian perspective, one by Arka Biswas providing an overall assessment of India’s response to the Iran nuclear agreement, and a second one by Akhilesh Sati,
exploring the possible implications on India’s energy security. Lastly, Rakesh Sood has authored a chapter looking into the impact of the Iranian nuclear agreement on the global non-proliferation architecture.
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Trust between Russia and Iran is not enough for successful cooperation; to this end, they need to understand each other’s goals and interests correctly. Russia and Iran should talk more about how they interpret each other’s... more
Trust between Russia and Iran is not enough for successful cooperation; to this end, they need to understand each other’s goals and interests correctly. Russia and Iran should talk more about how they interpret each other’s interests, adjust these interpretations and avoid misinterpretations in the future.
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The development of nuclear power will be an integral and irreplaceable component in supplying the growing energy requirements of the world for at least the next 30 to 50 years. Nevertheless, it is not envisioned that nuclear energy would... more
The development of nuclear power will be an integral and irreplaceable component in supplying the growing energy requirements of the world for at least the next 30 to 50 years. Nevertheless, it is not envisioned that nuclear energy would ever replace hydrocarbons completely, merely that it would play a larger role. In turn, the likelihood that nuclear energy could be used to resolve these problems will depend upon whether a number of important conditions can be met. Of these, one of the more essential is the need to enhance the emergency foolproofness and environmental safety of the “peaceful atom” and exclude the possibility of its use for military purposes, i.e., the proliferation of nuclear weapons. A future expansion of nuclear power in the world could give rise to greater availability of the technology and materials necessary to create nuclear arms. The current nuclear weapons nonproliferation regime and nuclear energy safety standards would be inadequate for averting such consequences. The statute, mechanisms, and institutes of the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty need to be reinforced through urgent, radical large-scale measures aimed at establishing acceptable levels for the safety of nuclear power today and in the future.
In terms of the potential it represents for the use or proliferation of nuclear weapons, another source of risk is South Asia. Although the nonproliferation regime is indeed threatened by the nuclear weapons and military nuclear programs of India and Pakistan,
the threat is not as great as is sometimes suggested in the media. Clearly, the greatest amount of effort should go toward preventing a conflict between India and Pakistan, and, in particular, excluding the possibility that nuclear weapons would be used. India and Pakistan must be persuaded to include the principle of no first use of nuclear weapons in their national nuclear doctrines (with mandatory compliance). Another way to lower the risk of a nuclear conflict would be to sign an agreement not to base nuclear weapons in Kashmir. The same objectives, but on a broader scale, could be achieved through an agreement to maintain the two nuclear missile forces at a diminished level of operational readiness (thereby formalizing established practice). Such a provision, which would in effect tangibly embody a no-first-use commitment, could be verified using the U.S.’s and Russia’s national technical means, and/or by permanent UN observers with access to the nuclear bases of India and Pakistan.
In terms of the potential it represents for the use or proliferation of nuclear weapons, another source of risk is South Asia. Although the nonproliferation regime is indeed threatened by the nuclear weapons and military nuclear programs of India and Pakistan,
the threat is not as great as is sometimes suggested in the media. Clearly, the greatest amount of effort should go toward preventing a conflict between India and Pakistan, and, in particular, excluding the possibility that nuclear weapons would be used. India and Pakistan must be persuaded to include the principle of no first use of nuclear weapons in their national nuclear doctrines (with mandatory compliance). Another way to lower the risk of a nuclear conflict would be to sign an agreement not to base nuclear weapons in Kashmir. The same objectives, but on a broader scale, could be achieved through an agreement to maintain the two nuclear missile forces at a diminished level of operational readiness (thereby formalizing established practice). Such a provision, which would in effect tangibly embody a no-first-use commitment, could be verified using the U.S.’s and Russia’s national technical means, and/or by permanent UN observers with access to the nuclear bases of India and Pakistan.
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This book embraces the topics analyzed under the joint project implemented by the Institute of World Economy and International Relations (IMEMO) and the Nuclear Threat Initiative, Inc. (NTI) and titled “Russia and the Deep Nuclear... more
This book embraces the topics analyzed under the joint project implemented by the Institute of World Economy and International Relations (IMEMO) and the Nuclear Threat Initiative, Inc. (NTI) and titled “Russia and the Deep Nuclear Disarmament”. This research report was commissioned by the Nuclear Security Project (NSP) of the Nuclear Threat Initiative (NTI). For more information see the NSP website at http://www.nuclearsecurity.org. The views expressed in this paper are entirely the authors' own and not those of the IMEMO or NSP. The book is intended for specialists in international relations and security and the public in general.
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Violence, South Asian Studies, Sustainable Development, Social Justice, Ecology, and 10 moreConflict Resolution, Environmental Sustainability, Nuclear Energy, War, Peace, Nuclear Disarmament, WMD proliferation, Arms Control and Disarmament, North Korea, Nuclear proliferation, and Iran's Nuclear Programme and Its Implications for the Gulf States
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Peter Topychkanov analyzes the achievements and problems of democracy based on the example of India. Convinced of the need to attain real equality of opportunity and protection of the rights of all people, the author nevertheless builds a... more
Peter Topychkanov analyzes the achievements and problems of democracy based on the example of India. Convinced of the need to attain real equality of opportunity and protection of the rights of all people, the author nevertheless builds a system of evidence supporting a thesis about the ambiguity of the compensatory allocation of quotas for elections and appointments to positions in government agencies for any specific population groups, be they castes or religious or ethnic minorities. He believes that such affirmative action, together with a certain leveling of the playing
field, isolates and demotivates those groups whose position it is supposed to improve. as a specialist on India's history and politics, Peter Topychkanov bases his point of view on many examples from the country’s practical experience.
field, isolates and demotivates those groups whose position it is supposed to improve. as a specialist on India's history and politics, Peter Topychkanov bases his point of view on many examples from the country’s practical experience.
Research Interests:
Religion, International Relations, Multiculturalism, Censorship, International Law, and 28 moreHuman Rights, International organizations, Conflict, Security, Migration, Nationalism, Gender, Culture, Oral Traditions, Diplomacy, Ethnicity, Minority Rights, Refugees, India, Peace, Minorities, Language politics, State, Freedom, Displacement, Communal Violence, Borders and Borderlands, Refugee memory, Casteism, Indian State, Ambedkar Cartoon, Religious Tolerance, and Hindus
Co-authored with Prof Vladimir Moskalenko A look at a broad issue area of nonproliferation on the example of an individual state-Pakistan-gives a chance to evaluate possibilities of advancing towards nuclear weapons by other states which... more
Co-authored with Prof Vladimir Moskalenko
A look at a broad issue area of nonproliferation on the example of an individual state-Pakistan-gives a chance to evaluate possibilities of advancing towards nuclear weapons by other states which have already made a certain progress, "threshold" ones included. It also gives a chance to identify principal threats inherent in this process as well as ways of countering this advancement. With a view to these objectives, this paper is devoted to 1) specific features of the process of building of nuclear weapons by Pakistan, the nature of internal and external causes and the role of objective and subjective factors; 2) analysis of threats arising from the presence in Pakistan of nuclear weapons, technologies, and materials; and 3) measures for mitigating these threats and countering nuclear proliferation at the national (Pakistan), regional (South Asia), and international levels.
A look at a broad issue area of nonproliferation on the example of an individual state-Pakistan-gives a chance to evaluate possibilities of advancing towards nuclear weapons by other states which have already made a certain progress, "threshold" ones included. It also gives a chance to identify principal threats inherent in this process as well as ways of countering this advancement. With a view to these objectives, this paper is devoted to 1) specific features of the process of building of nuclear weapons by Pakistan, the nature of internal and external causes and the role of objective and subjective factors; 2) analysis of threats arising from the presence in Pakistan of nuclear weapons, technologies, and materials; and 3) measures for mitigating these threats and countering nuclear proliferation at the national (Pakistan), regional (South Asia), and international levels.
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Co-authored with Prof. Vladimir Moskalenko
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Co-authored with Prof. Vladimir Moskalenko
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Co-authored with Prof. Vladimir Moskalenko
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Building on the existing political momentum, this article seeks to deepen the international discussion on nuclear risk reduction through track 1.5 and track 2.0 dialogues. Various initiatives have recently acknowledged the need for... more
Building on the existing political momentum, this article seeks to deepen the international discussion on nuclear risk reduction through track 1.5 and track 2.0 dialogues. Various initiatives have recently acknowledged the need for reducing the risk of nuclear weapon use, such as the P5 process, the Stockholm Initiative for Nuclear Disarmament, and the US initiative on Creating the Environment for Nuclear Disarmament. There are diverging perceptions on the most significant sources of nuclear risks and how to address them best.
The text compares different perspectives on nuclear risks, focusing particularly on scenarios involving the potential first use of nuclear weapons. On that basis, the project suggests feasible measures, promoting the adoption of no-first-use (NFU) policies.
The text compares different perspectives on nuclear risks, focusing particularly on scenarios involving the potential first use of nuclear weapons. On that basis, the project suggests feasible measures, promoting the adoption of no-first-use (NFU) policies.
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Despite decades of peace in Asia, the region is becoming a place of growing tensions in areas that have long had the potential to erupt into armed conflict. There is a rush among a number of countries in recent years to modernize and... more
Despite decades of peace in Asia, the region is becoming a place of growing tensions in areas that have long had the potential to erupt into armed conflict. There is a rush among a number of countries in recent years to modernize and build up their military capabilities. Add to that the fact that the region contains nuclear-armed powers and other weapons of mass destruction, and a potent mix emerges that requires careful diplomacy and a renewed commitment to peace.
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The recent tensions between China and India should not be regarded as routine engagements in the disputed areas in the Himalayan region. There are indications that they represent a new stage in the strategic competition between these two... more
The recent tensions between China and India should not be regarded as routine engagements in the disputed areas in the Himalayan region. There are indications that they represent a new stage in the strategic competition between these two nuclear-armed states, with China and India raising their stakes in border disputes and building up their military capabilities.
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The history of the US–Soviet and US–Russian dialogues on the nuclear weapons programme of India can be divided into two major periods: First, from Pokhran I up to the end of the 1990s, when Moscow and Washington shared concerns regarding... more
The history of the US–Soviet and US–Russian dialogues on the nuclear weapons programme of India can be divided into two major periods: First, from Pokhran I up to the end of the 1990s, when Moscow and Washington shared concerns regarding India’s nuclear programme, and even their bilateral disagreements in international affairs did not stop them from reaching a consensus on how to react to the 1974 nuclear test. Second, from late 1990s to 2000s, when the growing mistrust between Russia and the US made joint actions in response to Pokhran II almost impossible, despite shared non-proliferation goals.
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The territorial dispute between India and Pakistan is one of the oldest disputes over lands around the world. It has at least four parts, namely India, Pakistan, Azad Jammu and Kashmir (or Pakistani-administrated Kashmir), and China. By... more
The territorial dispute between India and Pakistan is one of the oldest disputes over lands around the world. It has at least four parts, namely India, Pakistan, Azad Jammu and Kashmir (or Pakistani-administrated Kashmir), and China. By obtaining nuclear weapons in 1998, India and Pakistan created a unique situation, where two nuclear armed states have a permanent reason for confrontation.
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This article focuses on corruption cases in the area of military-technological cooperation between India and other countries in the context of Indian political development from 1947 to the present. Among the biggest scandals that changed... more
This article focuses on corruption cases in the area of military-technological cooperation between India and other countries in the context of Indian political development from 1947 to the present. Among the biggest scandals that changed the political landscape of the nation were the cases of HDW and Bofors (both 1987), “Operation West End” (2001), Scorpene (2006) and AgustaWestland (2014). All of these contributed to political crises and affected the balance of political forces in India. The struggle against corruption has been and continues to be complicated by the fact that strong ties have emerged between government, business and the armed forces over the years of Indian independence. At the same time, in modern conditions politicians find it increasingly difficult to hide their participation in corruption schemes thanks, on the one hand, to the increased capabilities of the media and public organizations and, on the other, to competition within political elites
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The existing nuclear-disarmament architecture is under considerable stress. Given the international frustration over the slow pace of disarmament within the context of the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty and... more
The existing nuclear-disarmament architecture is under considerable stress. Given the international frustration over the slow pace of disarmament within the context of the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty and uncertainty about the future relationship between Russia and the United States, the prospects for advancing disarmament within politicized processes seem dim. But despite this negative environment, progress is possible. The ban treaty movement is bringing greater international attention to the disarmament impasse, and past successes in the Nuclear Security Summits demonstrate that states are willing to take actions that go beyond consensus statements. A similar set of summits, designed to encourage state-level and multinational efforts to make progress on conditions necessary for disarmament – such as transparency, monitoring,verification, and enforcement – could enable groups of states to move beyond the status quo and address key conditions that will be necessary to achieve disarmament.
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The author reviews the debates on activities of international organizations in the sphere of security. He proposes a methodology for the analysis of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization. He argues that the SCO can find responses to... more
The author reviews the debates on activities of international organizations in the sphere of security. He proposes a methodology for the analysis of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization. He argues that the SCO can find responses to emerging security challenges through its transformation process and via the dialogue in the region and beyond. This is the SCO input into building of the united system of international order, based on unconstrained and collective principles
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In early July 2013, Vienna hosted an international conference on nuclear security that culminated in a declaration stating that IAEA countries “remain concerned about the threat of nuclear and radiological terrorism and of other malicious... more
In early July 2013, Vienna hosted an international conference on nuclear security that culminated in a declaration stating that IAEA countries “remain concerned about the threat of nuclear and radiological terrorism and of other malicious acts or sabotage related to facilities and activities involving nuclear and other radioactive material”. Despite the substantial progress made in recent years in strengthening nuclear security worldwide, the document notes, more needs to be done in this field. The declaration suggests that numerous states need to pay greater attention to the threat of nuclear terrorism, which shows no signs of going away, and instead is only becoming more tangible.
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Co-authored with Prof Sergey Oznobishchev
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This article examines the impact of external conditions on the choice to develop a nuclear weapons program. A comparison of external conditions which influenced the nuclear choice of Pakistan with those which have been accompanying the... more
This article examines the impact of external conditions on the choice to develop a nuclear weapons program. A comparison of external conditions which influenced the nuclear choice of Pakistan with those which have been accompanying the development of the Iranian nuclear program assists in identifying the typical external factors that push threshold states towards acquiring nuclear weapons. These factors include: threats to a regimes survival and attractively high status of the nuclear powers. This article also offers recommendations that can help lower the negative impact of these factors on the threshold states.
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Expert of the Institute of Asian and African Studies of Lomonosov Moscow State University Petr Topychkanov looks at the development of India’s international cooperation in the nuclear energy industry since the NSG... more
Expert of the Institute of Asian and African Studies of Lomonosov Moscow State University Petr Topychkanov looks at the development of India’s international cooperation in the nuclear energy industry since the NSG eased its restrictions on nuclear trade with the country in September 2008. As growth of India’s installed generation capacity is slowing down as a result of the world financial crisis, the author says compe6tition on the Indian market between the key holders of nuclear reactor technology may intensify.
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The article makes a multi-vector analysis of Muslim minority in the modern India (12% of its population, or more than 130 million people in absolute figures). The author compares the positions of Muslim community with those of other... more
The article makes a multi-vector analysis of Muslim minority in the modern India (12% of its population, or more than 130 million people in absolute figures). The author compares the positions of Muslim community with those of other groups of population, including in terms of employment in the state and military service. In his opinion, the disproportional presence of Muslims in social and political life is one of the serious problems for independent India. P.Topychkanov believes that partial political, social and economic, and psychological isolation of India’s Muslims influenced by internal and external factors still does not allow to unambiguously answer the question of the unity of the Indian nation.
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The ongoing renaissance of artificial intelligence (AI) is reshaping the world. Just like many other developing countries, India and Pakistan—the two nuclear-armed states of South Asia—are exploring the subsequent opportunities for... more
The ongoing renaissance of artificial intelligence (AI) is reshaping the world. Just like many other developing countries, India and Pakistan—the two nuclear-armed states of South Asia—are exploring the subsequent opportunities for economic and social change. Their political leaders seem to prioritize civilian applications of AI over the military, and public attention reflects the political priorities. National efforts to militarize AI do not receive the same public coverage as civilian AI development
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w Before the global spread of Covid-19, nuclear-armed China, India and Pakistan lacked official diplomatic exchanges to address nuclear weaponrelated issues. The pandemic then halted even unofficial dialogues between these countries,... more
w Before the global spread of Covid-19, nuclear-armed China, India and Pakistan lacked official diplomatic exchanges to address nuclear weaponrelated issues. The pandemic then halted even unofficial dialogues between these countries, which had existed in various bilateral and multilateral formats. As a result, China, India and Pakistan are faced with the challenge of keeping a desirable level of predictability concerning each other’s nuclear postures and capabilities. This SIPRI Policy Brief explores ways of dealing with this challenge and enhancing nuclear dialogues in South Asia. It considers both longer-term developments in the region and the recent implications of Covid-19. The paper finds that bilateral dialogue remains more feasible than trilateral dialogue between China, India and Pakistan. Nevertheless, it argues that these countries may need to address specific issues in broader formats. Emphasized by the Covid-19 crisis, such issues notably include emerging technologies an...
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The article is devoted to the analysis of the directions of the development of the regional missile defense potentials, as well as of the factors encouraging their creation. The appearance of such potentials, in their turn, develops... more
The article is devoted to the analysis of the directions of the development of the regional missile defense potentials, as well as of the factors encouraging their creation. The appearance of such potentials, in their turn, develops stimulus for active attempts in implementation plans of making operational the ballistic missile defense systems. The article contains the expert’s conclusions on the existing and perspective regional BMD systems.
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Business and Procurement
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w This SIPRI Insights paper explores a series of nuclear transparency and confidencebuilding measures (CBMs) proposed by military, nuclear, political and regional experts from China, India, Pakistan, Russia and the United States to... more
w This SIPRI Insights paper explores a series of nuclear transparency and confidencebuilding measures (CBMs) proposed by military, nuclear, political and regional experts from China, India, Pakistan, Russia and the United States to address nuclear challenges in South Asia. It categorizes these bilateral, trilateral and multilateral measures into doctrinal dialogues and joint threat assessment exercises; communication lines, prenotification and de-alerting; and development and employment of strategic technologies. The paper then provides a spectrum of viability across which it identifies proposals with the greatest potential, moderate potential and the least potential for reinvigorating nuclear transparency measures and CBMs in South Asia. REINVIGORATING SOUTH ASIAN NUCLEAR TRANSPARENCY AND CONFIDENCE-BUILDING MEASURES
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Building on the existing political momentum, this article seeks to deepen the international discussion on nuclear risk reduction through track 1.5 and track 2.0 dialogues. Various initiatives have recently acknowledged the need for... more
Building on the existing political momentum, this article seeks to deepen the international discussion on nuclear risk reduction through track 1.5 and track 2.0 dialogues. Various initiatives have recently acknowledged the need for reducing the risk of nuclear weapon use, such as the P5 process, the Stockholm Initiative for Nuclear Disarmament, and the US initiative on Creating the Environment for Nuclear Disarmament. There are diverging perceptions on the most significant sources of nuclear risks and how to address them best. The text compares different perspectives on nuclear risks, focusing particularly on scenarios involving the potential first use of nuclear weapons. On that basis, the project suggests feasible measures, promoting the adoption of no-first-use (NFU) policies.