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Assessing electoral volatility through ecological inference: the case of the 2014 and 2020 municipal elections in Montpellier

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Abstract

This article contributes to the study of electoral volatility in two-round majority elections by examining the 2014 and 2020 municipal elections in Montpellier (France). Our article estimates electoral volatility using ecological inference from aggregated electoral and census data collected at the polling station level. First, this study underlines that vote shifts are mainly intra-bloc volatility. Moreover, our results also show that electoral volatility—particularly remobilization and intra-bloc volatility—is more frequent within polling stations with politically interested categories and young people. Furthermore, this study suggests that social context is an essential determinant of volatility.

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Notes

  1. Volatility sometimes refers to the renewal of party systems (Pedersen 1979).

  2. Lists may continue to the second round if they have received at least 10% of the votes cast in the first round.

  3. Lists may merge with a list running for the second round only if they receive at least 5% of the votes cast in the first round.

  4. Helène Mandroux (PS) served as mayor between 2004 and 2014.

  5. The precincts encompass several Montpellier neighborhoods.

  6. For a study of lists built outside traditional parties, see Audemard et al. (2021).

  7. In France, registration on the electoral list is mandatory. Citizens are automatically registered in their commune of residence upon obtaining legal majority. However, they are required to update their registration information with each subsequent change of address.

  8. In this regard, it should be noted that the Jamet list was the only list to qualify for the second round in 2014 while never being dominant in any cluster.

  9. For the 2014 election, we have the following detailed information on turnout for each elector for all polling places in the city (131). For the 2020 elections, we were only able to collect this information for a randomly selected sample of offices (53 out of 135). Since the turnout pattern in these same polling places in 2014 was identical to that observed at the same time for all polling places in the city, we can assume that the information collected in 2020 from this sample is representative of the rest of the polling places.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. CNRS/CEPEL (UMR5112), University of Montpellier, 3 rue de l’Arc des Mourgue, 34000, Montpellier, France

    Julien Audemard

  2. CERTOP (UMR 5044), CEPEL (UMR 5112), University Toulouse Jean Jaurès, Toulouse, France

    David Gouard

  3. CEPEL (UMR 5112), Montpellier, France

    Arnaud Huc

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  1. Julien Audemard
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Appendices

Appendix: The structure of turnout during Montpellier’s 2014 and 2020 city elections

 

2014 city elections

2020 city elections

1st round abst. → 2nd round abst

0.81

0.85

1st round abst. → 2nd round part

0.19

0.15

1st round part. → 2nd round abst

0.09

0.28

1st round part → 2nd round part

0.91

0.72
  1. Numbers in cells are percentages. 2020 proportions were estimated from the voter registers of 53 polling stations chosen randomly.

Posterior densities versus true turnout values at the polling station level

AA and AP estimates for the 2014 elections

figure a

PP and PA estimates for the 2014 elections.

figure b

AA and AP estimates for 2020 elections.

figure c

PP and PA estimates for 2020 elections.

figure d

Note: The top figures give the posterior densities of the aggregate quantities of interest Bb and Bw. The bottom figures plot the estimated values against the true values. The size of each circle plotted is proportional to the number of interest in each polling station. If the estimated values were exactly equal to the true values, all of the points would be on the 45° line. A: Abstention; P: Participation.

PCA plot: contributive variables

figure e

Barplots: variable contributions to dimensions

First dimension

figure f

Second dimension

figure g

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Audemard, J., Gouard, D. & Huc, A. Assessing electoral volatility through ecological inference: the case of the 2014 and 2020 municipal elections in Montpellier. Fr Polit 21, 371–397 (2023). https://doi.org/10.1057/s41253-023-00227-y

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