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Volume 27, Issue 8 p. 2262-2276
Article

Predicting life history parameters for all fishes worldwide

James T. Thorson

Corresponding Author

James T. Thorson

Fisheries Resource Assessment and Monitoring Division, Northwest Fisheries Science Center, National Marine Fisheries Service, NOAA, Seattle, Washington, 98112 USA

E-mail: [email protected]Search for more papers by this author
Stephan B. Munch

Stephan B. Munch

Fish Ecology Division, Southwest Fisheries Science Center, National Marine Fisheries Service, NOAA, 110 Schaffer Road, Santa Cruz, California, 95060 USA

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Jason M. Cope

Jason M. Cope

Fisheries Resource Assessment and Monitoring Division, Northwest Fisheries Science Center, National Marine Fisheries Service, NOAA, Seattle, Washington, 98112 USA

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Jin Gao

Jin Gao

Fisheries Resource Assessment and Monitoring Division, Northwest Fisheries Science Center, National Marine Fisheries Service, NOAA, Seattle, Washington, 98112 USA

School of Aquatic and Fishery Sciences, University of Washington, Box 355020, Seattle, Washington, 98105 USA

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First published: 26 July 2017
Citations: 136
Corresponding Editor: Brice X. Semmens.

Abstract

Scientists and resource managers need to know life history parameters (e.g., average mortality rate, individual growth rate, maximum length or mass, and timing of maturity) to understand and respond to risks to natural populations and ecosystems. For over 100 years, scientists have identified “life history invariants” (LHI) representing pairs of parameters whose ratio is theorized to be constant across species. LHI then promise to allow prediction of many parameters from field measurements of a few important traits. Using LHI in this way, however, neglects any residual patterns in parameters when making predictions. We therefore apply a multivariate model for eight variables (seven parameters and temperature) in over 32,000 fishes, and include taxonomic structure for residuals (with levels for class, order, family, genus, and species). We illustrate that this approach predicts variables probabilistically for taxa with many or few data. We then use this model to resolve three questions regarding life history parameters in fishes. Specifically we show that (1) on average there is a 1.24% decrease in the Brody growth coefficient for every 1% increase in maximum size; (2) the ratio of natural mortality rate and growth coefficient is not an LHI but instead varies systematically based on the timing of maturation, where movement along this life history axis is predictably correlated with species taxonomy; and (3) three variables must be known per species to precisely predict remaining life history variables. We distribute our predictive model as an R package, FishLife, to allow future life history predictions for fishes to be conditioned on taxonomy and life history data for fishes worldwide. This package also contains predictions (and predictive intervals) for mortality, maturity, size, and growth parameters for all described fishes.