Designing Climate Change Mitigation Plans That Add Up
Abstract
Mitigation plans to combat climate change depend on the combined implementation of many abatement options, but the options interact. Published anthropogenic emissions inventories are disaggregated by gas, sector, country, or final energy form. This allows the assessment of novel energy supply options, but is insufficient for understanding how options for efficiency and demand reduction interact. A consistent framework for understanding the drivers of emissions is therefore developed, with a set of seven complete inventories reflecting all technical options for mitigation connected through lossless allocation matrices. The required data set is compiled and calculated from a wide range of industry, government, and academic reports. The framework is used to create a global Sankey diagram to relate human demand for services to anthropogenic emissions. The application of this framework is demonstrated through a prediction of per-capita emissions based on service demand in different countries, and through an example showing how the “technical potentials” of a set of separate mitigation options should be combined.
Introduction
• | The drivers of demand for the activities that lead to anthropogenic emissions are related to final services (such as warmth, commuting or food) which in turn arise from the use of equipment. Without a consistent inventory of emissions associated with these services, predictions of the relative importance of different demand reduction options may be confusing or inaccurate. For example: cities are responsible for approximately 70% of GHG emissions; (14) 17–32% of GHG emissions are related to the production of food; (15) the use of buildings accounts for 33% of GHG emissions. (16) Although, each of these statistics is true, the allocation of emissions to final services can be completed in such a way that a specific issue seems more important. |
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• | A mitigation plan comprises many actions whose combined effect can only be predicted within a consistent framework. This may not happen if direct, indirect, fugitive, and non-CO2 emissions are incorrectly separated; changes at a product level are scaled incorrectly to national or global levels; the effect of a combination of actions is anticipated to be the sum of their effects if applied separately. For example, marginal abatement curves may fail to consider interactions, use inconsistent baselines and lead to double counting, (17) and the difficulty of defining boundaries for life cycle assessment studies leads to both double-counting and the omission of emissions. (18) |
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• | The manner in which emissions inventories are structured determines which technical opportunities and potentials for mitigation they can reveal. For example, technical efficiency studies can only be made with an inventory of energy-using devices, and demand reduction can only be evaluated relative to final services. A study of integrated models used to anticipate transition pathways and future equilibria arising from different energy or carbon related price signals reports that at least six different approaches are in use for assessing technical mitigation opportunities. (19) |
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• | Misinformation about mitigation options which influences public perception, business and policy decision making, could be reduced by a consistent presentation of all emissions. For example, efforts aimed at promoting compact fluorescent light bulbs while prominent in public consciousness, have little overall impact on global emissions. (20) |
Materials and Methods
final service | included emission sources | physical units (annual flows) |
---|---|---|
travel | passenger transport for holiday, visiting family, shopping, sport; associated material production (steel, aluminum, plastics) and manufacturing of cars | 16 × 1012 passenger kilometres |
commuting | passenger transport for work, business and education; associated material production (steel, aluminum, plastics) and manufacturing of cars | 6 × 1012 passenger kilometres |
freight | freight transport fuel use; material production (steel, aluminum, plastics) and manufacturing of trucks and ships | 47 × 1012 tonne kilometres |
washing | hot water detergents, cosmetics and pharmaceuticals, incl. some packaging; energy use in washing machines and dishwashers; manufacturing of washing machines and dishwashers | 1.5 × 1012 m3K (hot water) 2.8 × 1018 Nm (mechanical work) |
thermal comfort | heated and cooled space | 30 × 1015 m3K (hot/cold air) |
illumination | energy used by light devices | 480 × 1018 lm.s |
communication | energy in use and manufacturing of electronics; writing and printing paper | 1.80 × 1021 bytes |
textiles | textile industry energy use; production of polymer fibres; fertilizer for cotton (energy and N2O emissions) | 71 × 106 tonnes (fiber) |
industrial equipment | production of some steel and aluminum; energy use by the industrial machines production sector | 1.9 × 106 tonne (steel/aluminum) |
construction of buildings and infrastructure | production of steel, aluminum and chemicals for construction and furniture uses; cement production; energy use in construction and quarrying industries; energy use in the wood industry incl. land-use change emissions; emissions from vegetation clearing for settlements | 15 × 109 m3MPA2/3 |
food | energy use for cooking; energy cost of fertilizer production (part of the chemical industry); energy use in the food processing industry; energy use in chemical, aluminum and paper industries associated with food and drink packaging; energy use on farms (tractors, irrigation systems); N2O emissions from fertilizer use; CH4 from rice, livestock and manure management; land-use change for agriculture | 30 × 1018 J (food) |
waste | CH4 emissions from waste and wastewater | 840 × 106 tonnes |
Results and Discussion
sources | total emissions: middle value | assumed range of uncertainty | services | total emissions: middle value | calculated range of uncertainty from sources |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
CO2 from fossil fuels | 29 800 | ±5% | travel | 4340 | ±16% |
CH4 from fossil fuels | 3600 | ±25% | commuting | 1680 | ±16% |
N2O from fossil fuels | 410 | ±25% | freight | 4330 | ±16% |
C02 from cement and lime | 1700 | ±5% | washing | 4350 | ±14% |
nonenergy fossil fuels | 520 | ±50% | thermal comfort | 5030 | ±11% |
F-gases | 940 | ±50% | illumination | 1600 | ±7% |
agriculture | 5730 | ±50% | communication | 2360 | ±15% |
waste | 1650 | ±70% | textiles | 730 | ±19% |
land-use change | 6160 | ±70% | industrial equipment | 1470 | ±25% |
construction of buildings and infrastructure | 7650 | ±23% | |||
food | 15 290 | ±45% | |||
waste | 1680 | ±70% |
Supporting Information
The Supporting Information to this paper comprises 21 tables of data, specifying all the numbers used in the analysis with detailed notes on sources. This material is available free of charge via the Internet at http://pubs.acs.org.
Terms & Conditions
Most electronic Supporting Information files are available without a subscription to ACS Web Editions. Such files may be downloaded by article for research use (if there is a public use license linked to the relevant article, that license may permit other uses). Permission may be obtained from ACS for other uses through requests via the RightsLink permission system: http://pubs.acs.org/page/copyright/permissions.html.
Acknowledgment
This work was funded by a grant to the University of Cambridge from BP as part of their Energy Sustainability Challenge, and by a Leadership Fellowship from the UK Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council (EPSRC) reference EP/G007217/1.
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16Allwood, J. M.; Cullen, J. M.; Milford, R. L. Options for achieving a 50% cut in industrial carbon emissions by 2050 Environ. Sci. Technol. 2010, 44 (6) 1888– 9416https://chemport.cas.org/services/resolver?origin=ACS&resolution=options&coi=1%3ACAS%3A528%3ADC%252BC3cXhtlCgtrc%253D&md5=6445b2b4cb04b8c846afb17c4525d504Options for Achieving a 50% Cut in Industrial Carbon Emissions by 2050Allwood, Julian M.; Cullen, Jonathan M.; Milford, Rachel L.Environmental Science & Technology (2010), 44 (6), 1888-1894CODEN: ESTHAG; ISSN:0013-936X. (American Chemical Society)Industrial C emissions are dominated by prodn. steel, cement, plastic, paper, and Al. Demand for these materials is anticipated to double at least by 2050, by which time global C emissions must be reduced by at least 50%. To evaluate the challenge of meeting this target, the global flows of these materials and their assocd. emissions are projected to 2050 under 5 tech. scenarios. A ref. scenario includes all existing and emerging efficiency measures but cannot provide sufficient redn. Applying C sequestration to primary prodn. proved sufficient only for cement. The emissions target can always be met by reducing demand, e.g., by product life extension, material substitution, or light-weighting. Re-using components displayed significant potential, particularly within construction; radical process innovation may also be possible. Results showed the first 2 strategies, based on increasing primary prodn., cannot achieve the required emissions redns.; thus, they should be balanced by the vigorous pursuit of material efficiency to provide for increased material services with reduced primary prodn.
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