Trace gas trends and their potential role in climate change
V. Ramanathan
Search for more papers by this authorR. J. Cicerone
Search for more papers by this authorH. B. Singh
Search for more papers by this authorJ. T. Kiehl
Search for more papers by this authorV. Ramanathan
Search for more papers by this authorR. J. Cicerone
Search for more papers by this authorH. B. Singh
Search for more papers by this authorJ. T. Kiehl
Search for more papers by this authorAbstract
This study examines the potential climatic effects of the radiatively active trace gases that have been detected in the atmosphere including chlorofluorocarbons, chlorocarbons, hydrocarbons, fluorinated and brominated species, and other compounds of nitrogen and sulfur, in addition to CO2 and O3. A one-dimensional radiative-convective model is used to estimate trace gas effects on atmospheric and surface temperatures for three cases: (1) modern day (1980) observed concentrations are adopted and their present trends are extrapolated 50 years into the future. These projections are based on analyses of observed trends and atmospheric residence times; (2) the preindustrial to present increase in CO2 and other trace gases are inferred from available observations; (3) a hypothetical increase of 0–1 ppbv is considered to provide insights into the radiative processes. Trace gases other than CO2 are shown to be potentially as important as CO2 for long-term climate trends. The relative importance of the 30 or so trace gases included in this study depends on the problem under consideration. The inferred CO2 increase from preindustrial to the present causes an equilibrium warming of the model surface by 0.5 K, which is amplified by 50% by CH4, CFCl3 (F11), CF2Cl2 (F12), and tropospheric ozone. For the projected increase from year 1980 to 2030, the other trace gases amplify the estimated CO2 warming of 0.7 K by about 110%: CFCl3, CF2Cl2, ozone, and CH4 each contribute in the 0.1–0.2 K range followed by N2O, CHClF2 (F22), CH3CCl3, and CCl4 in the 0.03–0.1 K range. Finally, on a per ppb basis, about 12 trace gases are identified to be important: CBrF3, C2F6 (F116), CHF3, and CF3Cl (F13) have greenhouse effects comparable to those of CFCl3 (F11) and CF2Cl2 (F12). The narrow-band overlap treatment and the accurate spectral and angular integration techniques employed in the present radiation model enable quantitative interpretation of the differences between various published estimates for the greenhouse effects of CFCl3 and CF2Cl2. For the projected trace gas increase, we compute the stratospheric O3 change by employing a photochemical model coupled to the radiative-convective model. The O3 change cools the stratosphere and the magnitude of the cooling is as large as that due to the projected CO2 increase. Because of the O3-induced stratospheric cooling and the surface warming due to the greenhouse effect, the trace gas effects on climate are virtually indistinguishable from those of CO2.
References
- Alexandrov, E. L., J. L. Konol, A. Ch. Khrgian, L. R. Rakipova, Yu. S. Sedonov, Contribution of ozone and other minor trace gases to atmospheric radiation regime and their possible effect on global climate changeWMO Global Ozone Res. and Monitoring Proj. Rep. 10, 79World Meteorol. Organ., Geneva, 1981.
- Andreae, M. O., H. Raemdonck, Dimethyl sulfide in the surface ocean and the marine atmosphere: A global view, Science, 221, 744–747, 1983.
- Angell, J. K., J. Korshover, Global variation in total ozone and layer-mean ozone: An update through 1981, J. Climate Appl. Meteorol., 22, 1611–1627, 1983.
- Bauer, E., A catalog of perturbing influences on stratospheric ozone 1955–1975, J. Geophys. Res., 84, 6929–6940, 1979.
- Berg, W. W., L. E. Heidt, W. Pollock, P. D. Sperry, R. J. Cicerone, E. S. Gladney, Brominated organic species in the Arctic atmosphere, Geophys. Res. Lett., 11, 429–432, 1984.
- Blake, D. R., E. W. Mayer, S. C. Tyler, Y. Makide, D. C. Montague, F. S. Rowland, Global increase in atmospheric methane concentrations between 1978 and 1980, Geophys. Res. Lett., 9, 477–480, 1982.
- Bojkov, R. D., Tropospheric ozone, its changes and possible radiative effectWMO Spec. Environ. Rep. 16World Meteorol. Organ., Geneva, 1983.
- Boughner, R. E., V. Ramanathan, Climatic consequences of increasing CO2: A study of the feedback mechanisms between increased CO2 concentrations and the atmospheric ozone, water vapor, and thermal structure and balanceSecond Conference on Atmospheric RadiationAm. Meteorol. Soc.Arlington, Va.Oct. 29–31, 1975.
- Callis, L. B., M. Natarajan, R. E. Boughner, On the relationship between the greenhouse effect, atmospheric photochemistry, and species distributions, J. Geophys. Res., 88, 1401–1426, 1983.
- Cess, R. D., The optically thin approximation, Meeting of Experts on Potential Climatic Effects of Ozone and Other Trace GasesWMO Rep. 14, 27–28World Meteorol. Organ., Geneva, 1982.
- Chamberlain, J. W., H. M. Foley, G. J. MacDonald, M. A. Rudenman, Climatic effects of minor atmospheric constituents, Carbon Dioxide Review: 1982 W. C. Clark, 253–278, Clarendon Press, New York, 1982.
- Chatfield, R. B., H. Harrison, Tropospheric ozone, 2, Variations along a meridional band, J. Geophys. Res., 82, 5969–5976, 1977.
- , Chemical Manufacturers Association, 1982 world production and sales of fluorocarbons FC-11 and FC-12, 29, Washington, D. C., 1983.
- Cicerone, R. J., Atmospheric carbon tetrafluoride: A nearly inert gas, Science, 206, 59–61, 1979.
- Cicerone, R. J., R. Zellner, The atmospheric chemistry of hydrogen cyanide, J. Geophys. Res., 88, 10689–10696, 1983.
- Cicerone, R. J., S. Walters, S. C. Liu, Nonlinear response of stratospheric ozone column to chlorine injections, J. Geophys. Res., 88, 3647–3661, 1983.
- Craig, H., C. C. Chou, Methane: The record in polar ice cores, Geophys. Res. Lett., 9, 1221–1224, 1982.
- Crutzen, P. J., L. T. Gidel, A two-dimensional photochemical model of the atmosphere, 2, The tropospheric budgets of the anthropogenic chlorocarbons, CO, CH4, CH3Cl and the effect of various NOx sources on tropospheric ozone, J. Geophys. Res., 88, 6641–6661, 1983.
- Cunnold, D., R. Prinn, R. Rasmussen, P. Simmonds, F. Alyea, C. Cardelino, A. Crawford, P. Fraser, R. Rosen, The Atmospheric Lifetime Experiment, 3, Lifetime methodology and application to 3 years of CFCl3 data, J. Geophys. Res., 88, 8379–8400, 1983a.
- Cunnold, D., R. Prinn, R. Rasmussen, P. Simmonds, F. Alyea, C. Cardelino, A. Crawford, The Atmospheric Lifetime Experiment, 4, Results for CFCl2 based on 3 years of data, J. Geophys. Res., 88, 8401–8414, 1983b.
- Dickinson, R. E., Modeling climatic changes due to carbon dioxide increases, Carbon Dioxide Review W. C. Clark, 101–133, Clarendon Press, New York, 1982.
- Dickinson, R. E., S. C. Liu, T. M. Donahue, Effect of clorofluoromethane infrared radiation on zonal atmospheric temperature, J. Atmos. Sci., 35, 2142–2152, 1978.
- Donner, L., V. Ramanathan, Methane and nitrous oxide: Their effects on the terrestrial climate, J. Atmos. Sci., 37, 119–124, 1980.
- Duxbury, J. M., D. R. Baldwin, R. E. Terry, R. L. Tate, Emissions of nitrous oxide from soils, Nature, 298, 462–464, 1982.
- Ehhalt, D. H., R. J. Zander, R. A. Lamontagne, On the temporal increase of tropospheric CH4, J. Geophys. Res., 88, 8442–8446, 1983.
- Fabian, P., R. Borchers, D. Gomer, S. A. Penkett, The vertical distribution of halocarbons in the stratosphere, Quadrennial Ozone Symposium, IAMAP Programs and Abstracts, 3–6, Int. Assoc. of Meteorol. and Atmos. Phys., 1984.
- Fels, S. B., J. D. Mahlman, M. D. Schwarzkopf, R. W. Sinclair, Stratospheric sensitivity to perturbations in ozone and carbon dioxide: Radiative and dynamical response, J. Atmos. Sci., 37, 2265–2297, 1980.
- Fenical, W., Natural products chemistry in the marine environment, Science, 215, 923–928, 1982.
- Fishman, J., V. Ramanathan, P. J. Crutzen, S. C. Liu, Tropospheric ozone and climate, Nature, 282, 818–820, 1979a.
- Fishman, J., S. Solomon, P. J. Crutzen, Observational and theoretical evidence in support of a significant in-situ photochemical source of tropospheric ozone, Tellus, 31, 432–446, 1979b.
- Goldman, A., F. S. Bonomo, D. G. Murray, Statistical band model analysis and integrated intensity for the 11.8 μm band of CFCl3, Appl. Opt., 15, 2305–2307, 1976a.
- Goldman, A., F. S. Bonomo, D. G. Murray, Statistical band model analysis and integrated intensity for the 10.8 μm band of CF2Cl2, Geophys. Res. Lett., 3, 309–312, 1976b.
- Goldman, A., D. G. Murray, F. J. Murray, G. R. Cook, J. W. Van Allen, F. S. Bonomo, R. D. Blatherwick, identification of the v3 vibration-rotation band of CF4 in balloon-borne infrared solar spectra, Geophys. Res. Lett., 6, 609–612, 1979.
- Hameed, S., R. D. Cess, J. Hogan, Response of the global climate to changes in atmospheric chemical composition due to fossil fuel burning, J. Geophys. Res., 85, 7537–7545, 1980.
- Hansen, J. E., A. Lacis, S. A. Lebedeff, Commentary on climatic effects of minor atmospheric constituents, Carbon Dioxide Review: 1982 W. C. Clark, 284–286, Clarendon Press, New York, 1982.
- Hansen, J. E., A. Lacis, D. Rind, G. Russell, P. Stone, I. Fung, R. Ruedy, J. Lerner, Climate sensitivity: Analysis of feedback mechanisms, Climate Processes and Climate Sensitivity, Maurice Ewing Ser., 5 J. E. Hansen, T. Takahashi, AGU, Washington, D. C., 1984.
10.1029/GM029p0130 Google Scholar
- Herranz, J. R. de laCierva, J. Morcillo, Intensidades absolutas en infrarrojo de bandes fundamentales del fluoroformo, chloroformo, trifluorclorometano y trichlorofluormetano, An. R. Soc. Esp. Fis. Quim. Madrid, A55, 69–76, 1959.
- Herrmann, J., W. Jaeschke, Measurements of H2S and SO2 over the Atlantic Ocean, J. Atmos. Chem., 1, 111–124, 1984.
- Hummel, J. R., R. A. Reck, The direct thermal effects of CHClF2, CH3CCl3 and CH2Cl2 on atmospheric surface temperatures, Atmos. Environ., 15, 379–382, 1981.
- Kagann, R. H., J. W. Elkins, R. L. Sams, Absolute band strengths of halocarbons F-11 and F-12 in the 8- to 16-μm region, J. Geophys. Res., 88, 1427–1432, 1983.
- Karol, I., et al., Atmospheric ozone and global climate, Report of U.S./USSR Workshop on the Climatic Effects of Increased Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide, Leningrad, 1981.
- Kiehl, J. T., V. Ramanathan, CO2 radiative parameterization used in climate models: Comparison with narrow band models and with laboratory data, J. Geophys. Res., 88, 5191–5202, 1983.
- Kley, D., J. W. Drummond, M. McFarland, S. C. Liu, Tropospheric profiles of NOx, J. Geophys. Res., 86, 3153–3161, 1981.
- Lacis, A., J. Hansen, P. Lee, T. Mitchell, S. Lebedeff, Greenhouse effect of trace gases, 1970–1980, Geophys. Res. Lett., 8, 1035–1038, 1981.
- Levy, H., J. D. Mahlman, W. J. Moxim, S. C. Liu, Tropospheric ozone: The role of transport, J. Geophys. Res., 1985.
- Liu, S. C., D. Kley, M. McFarland, J. D. Mahlman, H. Levy II, On the origin of tropospheric ozone, J. Geophys. Rev., 85, 7546–7552, 1980.
- Logan, J. A., Trends in tropospheric ozoneSecond Symposium on the Composition of the Nonurban TroposphereWilliamsburg, Va.May, 1982.
- Logan, J. A., M. J. Prather, S. C. Wofsy, M. A. McElroy, Atmospheric chemistry: Response of human influence, Philos. Trans. R. Soc. London, 290, 187–234, 1978.
- Logan, J. A., M. J. Prather, S. C. Wofsy, M. B. McElroy, Tropospheric chemistry: A global perspective, J. Geophys. Res., 86, 7210–7254, 1981.
- Lovelock, J. E., Natural halocarbons in air and in sea, Nature, 256, 193–194, 1975.
- Madden, R. A., V. Ramanathan, Detecting climate change due to increasing carbon dioxide, Science, 209, 763–768, 1980.
- Manabe, S., R. T. Wetherald, Thermal equilibrium of the atmosphere with a given distribution of relative humidity, J. Atmos. Sci., 24, 241–259, 1967.
- Maroulis, P. J., A. L. Torres, A. B. Goldberg, A. R. Bandy, Atmospheric SO2 measurements on Project Gametag, J. Geophys. Res., 85, 7345–7349, 1980.
- McClatchey, R. A., et al., AFCRL atmospheric absorbtion line parameters compilationAFCRL-TR-73-0096, 77Air Force Cambridge Res. Lab., Hanscom Field, Bedford, Mass., 1973.
- Nanes, R., P. M. Silvaggio, R. W. Boese, Temperature dependence of intensities of the 8–12 μm bands of CFCl3, J. Quant. Spectros. Radiat. Transfer, 23, 211–220, 1980.
- , National Academy of Sciences/National Research Council, Halocarbons: Effects on stratospheric ozone, Washington, D. C., 1976.
- , National Academy of Sciences/National Research Council, Stratospheric ozone depletion by halocarbons: Chemistry and transport, Washington, D. C., 1979.
- , National Academy of Sciences/National Research Council, Causes and effects of stratospheric ozone reduction: An update, National Academy Press, Washington, D. C., 1982.
- , National Aeronautics and Space Administration, The stratosphere: Present and future, NASA Ref. Publ., 1049, 1979.
- , National Research Council, Carbon dioxide and climate: A second assessment, Report of the CO2/Climate Review PanelNational Academy Press, Washington, D. C., 1982.
- , National Research Council, Changing climate, Report of the Carbon Dioxide Assessment CommitteeNational Academy Press, Washington, D. C., 1983.
- Penkett, S. A., Nonmethane organics in the remote troposphere, Atmospheric Chemistry, 329–355, Springer, New York, 1982.
10.1007/978-3-642-68638-2_18 Google Scholar
- Penkett, S. A., N. J. D. Prosser, R. A. Rasmussen, M. A. K. Khalil, Atmospheric measurements of CF4 and other fluorocarbons containing the CF3 grouping, d. Geophys. Res., 86, 5172–5178, 1981.
- Prather, M. J., M. B. McElroy, S. C. Wofsy, Reductions in ozone at high concentrations of stratospheric halogens, Nature, 312, 227–231, 1984.
- Pugh, L. A., K. N. Rao, Intensities from infrared spectra, Mol. Spectros., Mod. Res., 2, 165–225, 1976.
- Ramanathan, V., Greenhouse effect due to chlorofluorocarbons: Climatic implications, Science, 190, 50–52, 1975.
- Ramanathan, V., The role of ocean-atmospheric interactions in the CO2 climate problem, J. Atmos. Sci., 38, 918–930, 1981.
- Ramanathan, V., Commentary on climatic effects of minor atmospheric constituents, Carbon Dioxide Review: 1982 W. C. Clark, Clarendon Press, New York, 1982.
- Ramanathan, V., J. A. Coakley, Climate modeling through radiative-convective models, Rev. Geophys. Space Phys., 16, 465–489, 1978.
- Ramanathan, V., R. E. Dickinson, The role of stratospheric ozone in the zonal and sesonal radiative energy balance of the earth-troposphere system, J. Atmos. Sci., 36, 1084–1104, 1979.
- Ramanathan, V., L. B. Callis, R. E. Boughner, Sensitivity of atmospheric and surface temperature to perturbations in stratospheric concentration of ozone and nitrogen-dioxide, J. Atmos. Sci., 33, 1092–1112, 1976.
- Rasmussen, R. A., M. A. K. Khalil, Atmospheric methane: Trends and seasonal cycles, J. Geophys. Res., 86, 9826–9832, 1981.
- Rasmussen, R. A., L. E. Rasmussen, M. A. K. Khalil, R. W. Dalluge, Concentration distribution of methyl chloride in the atmosphere, J. Geophys. Res., 85, 7350–7356, 1980.
- Reck, R. A., D. L. Fry, The direct effects of chlorofluoromethanes on the atmospheric surface temperature, Atmos. Environ., 12, 2501–2503, 1978.
- Revelle, R. R., Methane hydrates in continental slope sediments and increasing atmospheric carbon dioxide, in Changing Climate, sect. 3.5, pp. 252–261,National Academy of Sciences,Washington, D. C.,1983.
- Rothman, L. S., R. R. Gamache, A. Barbe, A. Goldman, J. R. Gillis, L. R. Brown, R. A. Toth, J. M. Flaud, C. Camy-Peyret, AFGL atmospheric absorption line parameters compilation: 1982 edition, Appl. Opt., 15, 2247–2256, 1983.
- Rotty, R. M., G. Marland, Constraints on carbon dioxide production from fossil fuel useEnergy/Climate Interactions WorkshopMunster, GermanyMarch 3–8, 1980.
- Rudolph, J., D. H. Ehhalt, Measurements, of C2-C5, hydrocarbons over the North Atlantic, J. Geophys. Res., 86, 11959–11964, 1981.
- Saeki, S., M. Mizumo, S. Kondo, Infrared absorption intensities of methane and fluoromethanes, Spectrochim. Acta Part A, 32, 403–413, 1976.
- Simmonds, P. G., F. N. Alyea, C. A. Cardelino, A. J. Crawford, D. M. Cunnold, B. C. Lane, J. E. Lovelock, R. G. Prinn, R. A. Rasmussen, The Atmospheric Lifetime Experiment, 6, Results for carbon tetrachloride based on three years data, J. Geophys. Res., 88, 8427–8441, 1983.
- Singh, H. B., L. J. Salas, Peroxyacetyl nitrate in the free troposphere, Nature, 302, 326–328, 1983.
- Singh, H. B., D. P. Fowler, T. O. Peyton, Atmospheric carbon tetrachloride: Another manmade pollutant, Science, 192, 1231–1234, 1976.
- Singh, H. B., L. J. Salas, R. E. Stiles, Selected man-made halogenated chemicals in the air and oceanic environment, J. Geophys. Res., 88, 3675–3683, 1983a.
- Singh, H. B., L. J. Salas, R. E. Stiles, Methyl halides in and over the eastern Pacific (40°N-32°S), J. Geophys. Res., 88, 3684–3690, 1983b.
- Smagorinsky, J., Effects of carbon dioxide,chap. 4, sect. 4.1, in Changing Climate, pp. 266–284,Report of the Carbon Dioxide Assessment Committee, National Research Council,1983.
- Sparrow, E. M., R. D. Cess, Radiation Heat Transfer, 366, McGraw-Hill, New York, 1970.
- , Surgeon General, Health effects of toxic pollutants: A report from the Surgeon General, Report prepared forU.S. Senate, Department of Health and Human Services, Serial 96–15,Washington, D. C.,1980.
- Turco, R. P., R. C. Whitten, O. B. Toon, J. B. Pollack, P. Hamill, OCS, Stratospheric aerosols and climate, Nature, 283, 283–286, 1980.
- Varanasi, P., F. K. Ko, Intensity measurements in freon bands of atmospheric interest, J. Quant. Spectros. Radiat. Transfer, 17, 385–389, 1977.
- Volz, A., D. H. Ehhalt, R. G. Derwent, Seasonal and latitudinal variation of 14CO and the tropospheric concentrations of OH radicals, J. Geophys. Res., 86, 5163–5171, 1981.
- Wang, W. C., Ozone changes: Climatological effects, Stratospheric Ozone and Man F. A. Bower, R. B. Ward, 123–135, CRC Press, Cleveland, Ohio, 1982.
- Wang, W. C., Y. L. Yung, A. A. Lacis, T. Mo, J. E. Hansen, Greenhouse effect due to manmade perturbations of trace gases, Science, 194, 685–690, 1976.
- Wang, W. C., J. P. Pinto, Y. L. Yung, Climatic effects due to halogenated compounds in the earth's atmosphere, J. Atmos. Sci., 37, 333–338, 1980.
- Washington, W. M., G. A. Meehl, Seasonal cycle experiment on the climate sensitivity due to a doubling of CO2 with an atmospheric general circulation model coupled to a simple mixed layer model, J. Geophys. Res., 89, 9475, 1984.
- Weiss, R. F., The temporal and spatial distribution of tropospheric nitrous oxide, J. Geophys. Res., 86, 7185–7195, 1981.
- Wine, P. H., W. L. Chameides, A. R. Ravishankara, Potential role of CS2 oxidation in tropospheric sulfur chemistry, Geophys. Res., Lett., 8, 543–546, 1981.
- Wiscombe, W., J. Evans, Exponential-sum fitting of radiative transmission functions, J. Comp. Physiol., 24, 416–444, 1977.
- , World Meteorological Organization, Report of the meeting of experts on potential climatic effects of ozone and other minor trace gasesWMO Global Ozone Res. and Monitoring Prof. Rep. 14, 35, Geneva, 1982a.
- , World Meteorological Organization, The stratosphere 1981—Theory and measurementsWMO Rep. 11, Geneva, 1982b.
- , World Meteorological Organization, The world climate research program report on the meeting of experts on detection of possible climate change W. W. Kellogg, R. D. Bojkov, WCP 29, 42, Geneva, 1983.
- Wuebbles, D. J., Scenarios for future anthropogenic emissions of trace gases in the atmosphereUCID-18997Lawrence Livermore Lab., Berkeley, Calif., 1981.
- Wuebbles, D. J., A theoretical analysis of the past variations in global atmospheric composition and temperature structure, Ph.D. thesis,UCRL-53423,Univ. of Calif.,Davis,1983a.
- Wuebbles, D. J., Chlorocarbon emission scenarios: Potential impact on stratospheric ozone, J. Geophys. Res., 88, 1433–1440, 1983b.