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2011Global atmospheric methane: budget, changes and dangersPhil. Trans. R. Soc. A.3692058–2072http://doi.org/10.1098/rsta.2010.0341

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Global atmospheric methane: budget, changes and dangers

Edward J. Dlugokencky

Edward J. Dlugokencky

US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Earth System Research Laboratory, 325 Broadway, Boulder, CO 80305, USA

[email protected]

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Euan G. Nisbet

Euan G. Nisbet

Department of Earth Sciences, Royal Holloway, University of London, Egham TW20 0EX, UK

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Rebecca Fisher

Rebecca Fisher

Department of Earth Sciences, Royal Holloway, University of London, Egham TW20 0EX, UK

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David Lowry

David Lowry

Department of Earth Sciences, Royal Holloway, University of London, Egham TW20 0EX, UK

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Edward J. Dlugokencky

Edward J. Dlugokencky

US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Earth System Research Laboratory, 325 Broadway, Boulder, CO 80305, USA

[email protected]

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Euan G. Nisbet

Euan G. Nisbet

Department of Earth Sciences, Royal Holloway, University of London, Egham TW20 0EX, UK

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Rebecca Fisher

Rebecca Fisher

Department of Earth Sciences, Royal Holloway, University of London, Egham TW20 0EX, UK

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David Lowry

David Lowry

Department of Earth Sciences, Royal Holloway, University of London, Egham TW20 0EX, UK

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Published:28 May 2011https://doi.org/10.1098/rsta.2010.0341

Abstract

A factor of 2.5 increase in the global abundance of atmospheric methane (CH₄) since 1750 contributes 0.5 Wm⁻² to total direct radiative forcing by long-lived greenhouse gases (2.77 Wm⁻² in 2009), while its role in atmospheric chemistry adds another approximately 0.2 Wm⁻² of indirect forcing. Since CH₄ has a relatively short lifetime and it is very close to a steady state, reductions in its emissions would quickly benefit climate. Sensible emission mitigation strategies require quantitative understanding of CH₄’s budget of emissions and sinks. Atmospheric observations of CH₄ abundance and its rate of increase, combined with an estimate of the CH₄ lifetime, constrain total global CH₄ emissions to between 500 and 600 Tg CH₄ yr⁻¹. While total global emissions are constrained reasonably well, estimates of emissions by source sector vary by up to a factor of 2. Current observation networks are suitable to constrain emissions at large scales (e.g. global) but not at the regional to national scales necessary to verify emission reductions under emissions trading schemes. Improved constraints on the global CH₄ budget and its break down of emissions by source sector and country will come from an enhanced observation network for CH₄ abundance and its isotopic composition (δ¹³C, δD (D=²H) and δ¹⁴C). Isotopic measurements are a valuable tool in distinguishing among various sources that contribute emissions to an air parcel, once fractionation by loss processes is accounted for. Isotopic measurements are especially useful at regional scales where signals are larger. Reducing emissions from many anthropogenic source sectors is cost-effective, but these gains may be cancelled, in part, by increasing emissions related to economic development in many parts of the world. An observation network that can quantitatively assess these changing emissions, both positive and negative, is required, especially in the context of emissions trading schemes.

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Hartery S, Commane R, Lindaas J, Sweeney C, Henderson J, Mountain M, Steiner N, McDonald K, Dinardo S, Miller C, Wofsy S and Chang R (2018) Estimating regional-scale methane flux and budgets using CARVE aircraft measurements over Alaska, Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, 10.5194/acp-18-185-2018, 18:1, (185-202)

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Chandra N, Hayashida S, Saeki T and Patra P (2017) What controls the seasonal cycle of columnar methane observed by GOSAT over different regions in India?, Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, 10.5194/acp-17-12633-2017, 17:20, (12633-12643)

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Poulter B, Bousquet P, Canadell J, Ciais P, Peregon A, Saunois M, Arora V, Beerling D, Brovkin V, Jones C, Joos F, Gedney N, Ito A, Kleinen T, Koven C, McDonald K, Melton J, Peng C, Peng S, Prigent C, Schroeder R, Riley W, Saito M, Spahni R, Tian H, Taylor L, Viovy N, Wilton D, Wiltshire A, Xu X, Zhang B, Zhang Z and Zhu Q (2017) Global wetland contribution to 2000–2012 atmospheric methane growth rate dynamics, Environmental Research Letters, 10.1088/1748-9326/aa8391, 12:9, (094013), Online publication date: 1-Sep-2017.

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Haghnegahdar M, Schauble E and Young E (2017) A model for 12 CH 2 D 2 and 13 CH 3 D as complementary tracers for the budget of atmospheric CH 4 , Global Biogeochemical Cycles, 10.1002/2017GB005655, 31:9, (1387-1407), Online publication date: 1-Sep-2017.

McDermid S, Mearns L and Ruane A (2017) Representing agriculture in Earth System Models: Approaches and priorities for development, Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems, 10.1002/2016MS000749, 9:5, (2230-2265), Online publication date: 1-Sep-2017.

Sherwood O, Schwietzke S, Arling V and Etiope G (2017) Global Inventory of Gas Geochemistry Data from Fossil Fuel, Microbial and Burning Sources, version 2017, Earth System Science Data, 10.5194/essd-9-639-2017, 9:2, (639-656)

Zhang M, Leifer I and Hu C (2017) Challenges in Methane Column Retrievals from AVIRIS-NG Imagery over Spectrally Cluttered Surfaces: A Sensitivity Analysis, Remote Sensing, 10.3390/rs9080835, 9:8, (835)

Brosy C, Krampf K, Zeeman M, Wolf B, Junkermann W, Schäfer K, Emeis S and Kunstmann H (2017) Simultaneous multicopter-based air sampling and sensing of meteorological variables, Atmospheric Measurement Techniques, 10.5194/amt-10-2773-2017, 10:8, (2773-2784)

Pedersen E, Elberling B and Michelsen A (2017) Seasonal variations in methane fluxes in response to summer warming and leaf litter addition in a subarctic heath ecosystem, Journal of Geophysical Research: Biogeosciences, 10.1002/2017JG003782, 122:8, (2137-2153), Online publication date: 1-Aug-2017.

Hansen J, Sato M, Kharecha P, von Schuckmann K, Beerling D, Cao J, Marcott S, Masson-Delmotte V, Prather M, Rohling E, Shakun J, Smith P, Lacis A, Russell G and Ruedy R (2017) Young people's burden: requirement of negative CO<sub>2</sub> emissions, Earth System Dynamics, 10.5194/esd-8-577-2017, 8:3, (577-616)

Thonat T, Saunois M, Bousquet P, Pison I, Tan Z, Zhuang Q, Crill P, Thornton B, Bastviken D, Dlugokencky E, Zimov N, Laurila T, Hatakka J, Hermansen O and Worthy D (2017) Detectability of Arctic methane sources at six sites performing continuous atmospheric measurements, Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, 10.5194/acp-17-8371-2017, 17:13, (8371-8394)

Li T, Zhang Q, Cheng Z, Wang G, Yu L and Zhang W (2017) Performance of CH4MODwetland for the case study of different regions of natural Chinese wetland, Journal of Environmental Sciences, 10.1016/j.jes.2017.01.001, 57, (356-369), Online publication date: 1-Jul-2017.

Bamberger I, Oney B, Brunner D, Henne S, Leuenberger M, Buchmann N and Eugster W (2017) Observations of Atmospheric Methane and Carbon Dioxide Mixing Ratios: Tall-Tower or Mountain-Top Stations?, Boundary-Layer Meteorology, 10.1007/s10546-017-0236-3, 164:1, (135-159), Online publication date: 1-Jul-2017.

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Helbig M, Chasmer L, Kljun N, Quinton W, Treat C and Sonnentag O (2016) The positive net radiative greenhouse gas forcing of increasing methane emissions from a thawing boreal forest‐wetland landscape, Global Change Biology, 10.1111/gcb.13520, 23:6, (2413-2427), Online publication date: 1-Jun-2017.

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Prather M and Holmes C (2017) Overexplaining or underexplaining methane’s role in climate change, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 10.1073/pnas.1704884114, 114:21, (5324-5326), Online publication date: 23-May-2017.

Upstill-Goddard R, Salter M, Mann P, Barnes J, Poulsen J, Dinga B, Fiske G and Holmes R (2017) The riverine source of CH<sub>4</sub> and N<sub>2</sub>O from the Republic of Congo, western Congo Basin, Biogeosciences, 10.5194/bg-14-2267-2017, 14:9, (2267-2281)

Bruhwiler L, Basu S, Bergamaschi P, Bousquet P, Dlugokencky E, Houweling S, Ishizawa M, Kim H, Locatelli R, Maksyutov S, Montzka S, Pandey S, Patra P, Petron G, Saunois M, Sweeney C, Schwietzke S, Tans P and Weatherhead E (2017) U.S. CH 4 emissions from oil and gas production: Have recent large increases been detected? , Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, 10.1002/2016JD026157, 122:7, (4070-4083), Online publication date: 16-Apr-2017.

Michel A, Kapit J, Witinski M and Blanchard R (2017) Open-path spectroscopic methane detection using a broadband monolithic distributed feedback-quantum cascade laser array, Applied Optics, 10.1364/AO.56.000E23, 56:11, (E23), Online publication date: 10-Apr-2017.

Wei D and Wang X (2017) Uncertainty and dynamics of natural wetland CH4 release in China: Research status and priorities, Atmospheric Environment, 10.1016/j.atmosenv.2017.01.038, 154, (95-105), Online publication date: 1-Apr-2017.

Tsuruta A, Aalto T, Backman L, Hakkarainen J, van der Laan-Luijkx I, Krol M, Spahni R, Houweling S, Laine M, Dlugokencky E, Gomez-Pelaez A, van der Schoot M, Langenfelds R, Ellul R, Arduini J, Apadula F, Gerbig C, Feist D, Kivi R, Yoshida Y and Peters W (2017) Global methane emission estimates for 2000–2012 from CarbonTracker Europe-CH<sub>4</sub> v1.0, Geoscientific Model Development, 10.5194/gmd-10-1261-2017, 10:3, (1261-1289)

Thompson R, Sasakawa M, Machida T, Aalto T, Worthy D, Lavric J, Lund Myhre C and Stohl A (2017) Methane fluxes in the high northern latitudes for 2005–2013 estimated using a Bayesian atmospheric inversion, Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, 10.5194/acp-17-3553-2017, 17:5, (3553-3572)

Andresen C, Lara M, Tweedie C and Lougheed V (2016) Rising plant‐mediated methane emissions from arctic wetlands, Global Change Biology, 10.1111/gcb.13469, 23:3, (1128-1139), Online publication date: 1-Mar-2017.

Rhodes R, Brook E, McConnell J, Blunier T, Sime L, Faïn X and Mulvaney R (2017) Atmospheric methane variability: Centennial-scale signals in the Last Glacial Period, Global Biogeochemical Cycles, 10.1002/2016GB005570, 31:3, (575-590), Online publication date: 1-Mar-2017.

Fisher R, France J, Lowry D, Lanoisellé M, Brownlow R, Pyle J, Cain M, Warwick N, Skiba U, Drewer J, Dinsmore K, Leeson S, Bauguitte S, Wellpott A, O'Shea S, Allen G, Gallagher M, Pitt J, Percival C, Bower K, George C, Hayman G, Aalto T, Lohila A, Aurela M, Laurila T, Crill P, McCalley C and Nisbet E (2017) Measurement of the 13 C isotopic signature of methane emissions from northern European wetlands , Global Biogeochemical Cycles, 10.1002/2016GB005504, 31:3, (605-623), Online publication date: 1-Mar-2017.

D'Imperio L, Nielsen C, Westergaard-Nielsen A, Michelsen A and Elberling B (2016) Methane oxidation in contrasting soil types: responses to experimental warming with implication for landscape-integrated CH 4 budget , Global Change Biology, 10.1111/gcb.13400, 23:2, (966-976), Online publication date: 1-Feb-2017.

Chen G, Yang S, Lv C, Zhong J, Wang Z, Zhang Z, Fang X, Li S, Yang W and Xue L (2017) An improved method for estimating GHG emissions from onshore oil and gas exploration and development in China, Science of The Total Environment, 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2016.09.051, 574, (707-715), Online publication date: 1-Jan-2017.

Zhang M, Qiao F and Song Z (2016) Observation of atmospheric methane in the Arctic Ocean up to 87° north, Science China Earth Sciences, 10.1007/s11430-015-0241-3, 60:1, (173-179), Online publication date: 1-Jan-2017.

Roedel W and Wagner T (2017) Atmosphärische Spurengase Physik unserer Umwelt: Die Atmosphäre, 10.1007/978-3-662-54258-3_8, (397-467), .

Ussiri D and Lal R (2017) Historical and Contemporary Global Methane Cycling Carbon Sequestration for Climate Change Mitigation and Adaptation, 10.1007/978-3-319-53845-7_7, (227-285), .

France J, Cain M, Fisher R, Lowry D, Allen G, O'Shea S, Illingworth S, Pyle J, Warwick N, Jones B, Gallagher M, Bower K, Le Breton M, Percival C, Muller J, Welpott A, Bauguitte S, George C, Hayman G, Manning A, Myhre C, Lanoisellé M and Nisbet E (2016) Measurements of δ 13 C in CH 4 and using particle dispersion modeling to characterize sources of Arctic methane within an air mass , Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, 10.1002/2016JD026006, 121:23, Online publication date: 16-Dec-2016.

Saunois M, Bousquet P, Poulter B, Peregon A, Ciais P, Canadell J, Dlugokencky E, Etiope G, Bastviken D, Houweling S, Janssens-Maenhout G, Tubiello F, Castaldi S, Jackson R, Alexe M, Arora V, Beerling D, Bergamaschi P, Blake D, Brailsford G, Brovkin V, Bruhwiler L, Crevoisier C, Crill P, Covey K, Curry C, Frankenberg C, Gedney N, Höglund-Isaksson L, Ishizawa M, Ito A, Joos F, Kim H, Kleinen T, Krummel P, Lamarque J, Langenfelds R, Locatelli R, Machida T, Maksyutov S, McDonald K, Marshall J, Melton J, Morino I, Naik V, O'Doherty S, Parmentier F, Patra P, Peng C, Peng S, Peters G, Pison I, Prigent C, Prinn R, Ramonet M, Riley W, Saito M, Santini M, Schroeder R, Simpson I, Spahni R, Steele P, Takizawa A, Thornton B, Tian H, Tohjima Y, Viovy N, Voulgarakis A, van Weele M, van der Werf G, Weiss R, Wiedinmyer C, Wilton D, Wiltshire A, Worthy D, Wunch D, Xu X, Yoshida Y, Zhang B, Zhang Z and Zhu Q (2016) The global methane budget 2000–2012, Earth System Science Data, 10.5194/essd-8-697-2016, 8:2, (697-751)

Warwick N, Cain M, Fisher R, France J, Lowry D, Michel S, Nisbet E, Vaughn B, White J and Pyle J (2016) Using <i>δ</i><sup>13</sup>C-CH<sub>4</sub> and <i>δ</i>D-CH<sub>4</sub> to constrain Arctic methane emissions, Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, 10.5194/acp-16-14891-2016, 16:23, (14891-14908)

Saunois M, Jackson R, Bousquet P, Poulter B and Canadell J (2016) The growing role of methane in anthropogenic climate change, Environmental Research Letters, 10.1088/1748-9326/11/12/120207, 11:12, (120207), Online publication date: 1-Dec-2016.

Li F, Zhu R, Bao T, Wang Q and Xu H (2016) Sunlight stimulates methane uptake and nitrous oxide emission from the High Arctic tundra, Science of The Total Environment, 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2016.08.026, 572, (1150-1160), Online publication date: 1-Dec-2016.

Webster K, Mirza A, Deli J, Sauer P and Schimmelmann A (2016) Consumption of atmospheric methane in a limestone cave in Indiana, USA, Chemical Geology, 10.1016/j.chemgeo.2016.09.020, 443, (1-9), Online publication date: 1-Dec-2016.

Carmichael M and Smith W (2016) Standing Dead Trees: a Conduit for the Atmospheric Flux of Greenhouse Gases from Wetlands?, Wetlands, 10.1007/s13157-016-0845-5, 36:6, (1183-1188), Online publication date: 1-Dec-2016.

Matvienko G, Romanovskii O, Mordvin E, Lagutin A and Makushev K (2016) Methane content in the mid-upper troposphere of Western Siberia in 2003-2015: results of the AIRS/AMSU-Aqua XXII International Symposium Atmospheric and Ocean Optics. Atmospheric Physics, 10.1117/12.2249472, , (1003578), Online publication date: 29-Nov-2016.

Brownlow R, Lowry D, Thomas R, Fisher R, France J, Cain M, Richardson T, Greatwood C, Freer J, Pyle J, MacKenzie A and Nisbet E (2016) Methane mole fraction and δ 13 C above and below the trade wind inversion at Ascension Island in air sampled by aerial robotics , Geophysical Research Letters, 10.1002/2016GL071155, 43:22, Online publication date: 28-Nov-2016.

Johnson M, Xi X, Jeong S, Yates E, Iraci L, Tanaka T, Loewenstein M, Tadić J and Fischer M (2016) Investigating seasonal methane emissions in Northern California using airborne measurements and inverse modeling, Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, 10.1002/2016JD025157, 121:22, (13,753-13,767), Online publication date: 27-Nov-2016.

Peng S, Piao S, Bousquet P, Ciais P, Li B, Lin X, Tao S, Wang Z, Zhang Y and Zhou F (2016) Inventory of anthropogenic methane emissions in mainland China from 1980 to 2010, Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, 10.5194/acp-16-14545-2016, 16:22, (14545-14562)

Jacob D, Turner A, Maasakkers J, Sheng J, Sun K, Liu X, Chance K, Aben I, McKeever J and Frankenberg C (2016) Satellite observations of atmospheric methane and their value for quantifying methane emissions, Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, 10.5194/acp-16-14371-2016, 16:22, (14371-14396)

Saad K, Wunch D, Deutscher N, Griffith D, Hase F, De Mazière M, Notholt J, Pollard D, Roehl C, Schneider M, Sussmann R, Warneke T and Wennberg P (2016) Seasonal variability of stratospheric methane: implications for constraining tropospheric methane budgets using total column observations, Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, 10.5194/acp-16-14003-2016, 16:21, (14003-14024)

Michel A, Miller D, Sun K, Tao L, Stanton L and Zondlo M Long-Path Quantum Cascade Laser–Based Sensor for Methane Measurements, Journal of Atmospheric and Oceanic Technology, 10.1175/JTECH-D-16-0024.1, 33:11, (2373-2384)

McGinnis D, Bilsley N, Schmidt M, Fietzek P, Bodmer P, Premke K, Lorke A and Flury S (2016) Deconstructing Methane Emissions from a Small Northern European River: Hydrodynamics and Temperature as Key Drivers, Environmental Science & Technology, 10.1021/acs.est.6b03268, 50:21, (11680-11687), Online publication date: 1-Nov-2016.

Pirk N, Tamstorf M, Lund M, Mastepanov M, Pedersen S, Mylius M, Parmentier F, Christiansen H and Christensen T (2016) Snowpack fluxes of methane and carbon dioxide from high Arctic tundra, Journal of Geophysical Research: Biogeosciences, 10.1002/2016JG003486, 121:11, (2886-2900), Online publication date: 1-Nov-2016.

Skorokhod A, Pankratova N, Belikov I, Thompson R, Novigatsky A and Golitsyn G (2016) Observations of atmospheric methane and its stable isotope ratio (δ13C) over the Russian Arctic seas from ship cruises in the summer and autumn of 2015, Doklady Earth Sciences, 10.1134/S1028334X16100160, 470:2, (1081-1085), Online publication date: 1-Oct-2016.

Rice A, Butenhoff C, Teama D, Röger F, Khalil M and Rasmussen R (2016) Atmospheric methane isotopic record favors fossil sources flat in 1980s and 1990s with recent increase, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 10.1073/pnas.1522923113, 113:39, (10791-10796), Online publication date: 27-Sep-2016.

Silny J, Ientilucci E, Miller C, Frankenberg C, Kuhnert A, Spiers G, Eldering A, Rud M, Pagano T, Wilson D, Brooks C and Jaffe D (2016) Capturing complete spatial context in satellite observations of greenhouse gases SPIE Optical Engineering + Applications, 10.1117/12.2238766, , (997609), Online publication date: 19-Sep-2016.

Chai X, Tonjes D and Mahajan D (2016) Methane emissions as energy reservoir: Context, scope, causes and mitigation strategies, Progress in Energy and Combustion Science, 10.1016/j.pecs.2016.05.001, 56, (33-70), Online publication date: 1-Sep-2016.

Davidson S, Sloan V, Phoenix G, Wagner R, Fisher J, Oechel W and Zona D (2016) Vegetation Type Dominates the Spatial Variability in CH4 Emissions Across Multiple Arctic Tundra Landscapes, Ecosystems, 10.1007/s10021-016-9991-0, 19:6, (1116-1132), Online publication date: 1-Sep-2016.

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This Issue

Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences cover image

28 May 2011

Volume 369Issue 1943

Discussion Meeting Issue 'Greenhouse gases in the Earth system: setting the agenda to 2030' organized and edited by Andrew C. Manning, Euan G. Nisbet, Ralph F. Keeling and Peter S. Liss

Article Information

DOI:https://doi.org/10.1098/rsta.2010.0341
Published by:Royal Society
Print ISSN:1364-503X
Online ISSN:1471-2962

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Published online28/05/2011
Published in print28/05/2011

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This journal is © 2011 The Royal Society

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