Land-use change trajectories up to 2050: insights from a global agro-economic model comparison
Corresponding Author
Christoph Schmitz
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Telegrafenberg A 31, 14473 Potsdam Germany
Corresponding author. Tel.: +0049-331-288-2653, fax: +49-331-288-2600. E-mail address: [email protected] (C. Schmitz).Search for more papers by this authorHans van Meijl
Agricultural Economics Research Institute (LEI), Wageningen University and Research Centre, 2585 DB, The Hague, The Netherlands
Search for more papers by this authorPage Kyle
Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL), 5825 University Research Court, Suite 3500 College Park, MD 20740, USA
Search for more papers by this authorGerald C. Nelson
International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI), 2033 K St., NW Washington, DC, 20006-1002, USA
University of Illinois, Urbana-Champaign, Champaign, IL 61801, USA
Search for more papers by this authorShinichiro Fujimori
National Institute for Environmental Studies (NIES), 16-2 Onogawa Tsukuba, Ibaraki, 305-8506, Japan
Search for more papers by this authorAngelo Gurgel
Sao Paulo School of Economics (EESP-FGV), 01332-000 Sao Paulo, SP, Brazil
Search for more papers by this authorPetr Havlik
International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), Schlossplatz 1, A-2361 Laxenburg, Austria
Search for more papers by this authorEdwina Heyhoe
Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics and Sciences (ABARES), 18 Marcus Clarke Street Canberra ACT 2601, Australia
Search for more papers by this authorDaniel Mason d'Croz
International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI), 2033 K St., NW Washington, DC, 20006-1002, USA
Search for more papers by this authorAlexander Popp
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Telegrafenberg A 31, 14473 Potsdam Germany
Search for more papers by this authorRon Sands
Economic Research Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA), 1400 Independence Ave. SW, Mailstop 1800, Washington, DC 20250, USA
Search for more papers by this authorAndrzej Tabeau
Agricultural Economics Research Institute (LEI), Wageningen University and Research Centre, 2585 DB, The Hague, The Netherlands
Search for more papers by this authorDominique van der Mensbrugghe
Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO), Viale delle Terme di Caracalla, Roma, 00153 Italy
Search for more papers by this authorMartin von Lampe
Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD), 2, rue André Pascal 75775 Paris, Cedex 16, France
Search for more papers by this authorMarshall Wise
Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL), 5825 University Research Court, Suite 3500 College Park, MD 20740, USA
Search for more papers by this authorElodie Blanc
Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, 77 Massachusetts Ave. Cambridge, MA, 02139-4307, USA
Search for more papers by this authorTomoko Hasegawa
National Institute for Environmental Studies (NIES), 16-2 Onogawa Tsukuba, Ibaraki, 305-8506, Japan
Search for more papers by this authorAikaterini Kavallari
Agricultural Economics Research Institute (LEI), Wageningen University and Research Centre, 2585 DB, The Hague, The Netherlands
Search for more papers by this authorHugo Valin
International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), Schlossplatz 1, A-2361 Laxenburg, Austria
Search for more papers by this authorCorresponding Author
Christoph Schmitz
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Telegrafenberg A 31, 14473 Potsdam Germany
Corresponding author. Tel.: +0049-331-288-2653, fax: +49-331-288-2600. E-mail address: [email protected] (C. Schmitz).Search for more papers by this authorHans van Meijl
Agricultural Economics Research Institute (LEI), Wageningen University and Research Centre, 2585 DB, The Hague, The Netherlands
Search for more papers by this authorPage Kyle
Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL), 5825 University Research Court, Suite 3500 College Park, MD 20740, USA
Search for more papers by this authorGerald C. Nelson
International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI), 2033 K St., NW Washington, DC, 20006-1002, USA
University of Illinois, Urbana-Champaign, Champaign, IL 61801, USA
Search for more papers by this authorShinichiro Fujimori
National Institute for Environmental Studies (NIES), 16-2 Onogawa Tsukuba, Ibaraki, 305-8506, Japan
Search for more papers by this authorAngelo Gurgel
Sao Paulo School of Economics (EESP-FGV), 01332-000 Sao Paulo, SP, Brazil
Search for more papers by this authorPetr Havlik
International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), Schlossplatz 1, A-2361 Laxenburg, Austria
Search for more papers by this authorEdwina Heyhoe
Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics and Sciences (ABARES), 18 Marcus Clarke Street Canberra ACT 2601, Australia
Search for more papers by this authorDaniel Mason d'Croz
International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI), 2033 K St., NW Washington, DC, 20006-1002, USA
Search for more papers by this authorAlexander Popp
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Telegrafenberg A 31, 14473 Potsdam Germany
Search for more papers by this authorRon Sands
Economic Research Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA), 1400 Independence Ave. SW, Mailstop 1800, Washington, DC 20250, USA
Search for more papers by this authorAndrzej Tabeau
Agricultural Economics Research Institute (LEI), Wageningen University and Research Centre, 2585 DB, The Hague, The Netherlands
Search for more papers by this authorDominique van der Mensbrugghe
Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO), Viale delle Terme di Caracalla, Roma, 00153 Italy
Search for more papers by this authorMartin von Lampe
Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD), 2, rue André Pascal 75775 Paris, Cedex 16, France
Search for more papers by this authorMarshall Wise
Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL), 5825 University Research Court, Suite 3500 College Park, MD 20740, USA
Search for more papers by this authorElodie Blanc
Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, 77 Massachusetts Ave. Cambridge, MA, 02139-4307, USA
Search for more papers by this authorTomoko Hasegawa
National Institute for Environmental Studies (NIES), 16-2 Onogawa Tsukuba, Ibaraki, 305-8506, Japan
Search for more papers by this authorAikaterini Kavallari
Agricultural Economics Research Institute (LEI), Wageningen University and Research Centre, 2585 DB, The Hague, The Netherlands
Search for more papers by this authorHugo Valin
International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), Schlossplatz 1, A-2361 Laxenburg, Austria
Search for more papers by this authorAbstract
Changes in agricultural land use have important implications for environmental services. Previous studies of agricultural land-use futures have been published indicating large uncertainty due to different model assumptions and methodologies. In this article we present a first comprehensive comparison of global agro-economic models that have harmonized drivers of population, GDP, and biophysical yields. The comparison allows us to ask two research questions: (1) How much cropland will be used under different socioeconomic and climate change scenarios? (2) How can differences in model results be explained? The comparison includes four partial and six general equilibrium models that differ in how they model land supply and amount of potentially available land. We analyze results of two different socioeconomic scenarios and three climate scenarios (one with constant climate). Most models (7 out of 10) project an increase of cropland of 10–25% by 2050 compared to 2005 (under constant climate), but one model projects a decrease. Pasture land expands in some models, which increase the treat on natural vegetation further. Across all models most of the cropland expansion takes place in South America and sub-Saharan Africa. In general, the strongest differences in model results are related to differences in the costs of land expansion, the endogenous productivity responses, and the assumptions about potential cropland.
Supporting Information
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| agec12090-sup-0001-Appendix.zip29.4 MB | Data Appendix Available Online A data appendix to replicate main results is available in the online version of this article. |
Please note: The publisher is not responsible for the content or functionality of any supporting information supplied by the authors. Any queries (other than missing content) should be directed to the corresponding author for the article.
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