Mapping the Antigenic and Genetic Evolution of Influenza Virus
Abstract
The antigenic evolution of influenza A (H3N2) virus was quantified and visualized from its introduction into humans in 1968 to 2003. Although there was remarkable correspondence between antigenic and genetic evolution, significant differences were observed: Antigenic evolution was more punctuated than genetic evolution, and genetic change sometimes had a disproportionately large antigenic effect. The method readily allows monitoring of antigenic differences among vaccine and circulating strains and thus estimation of the effects of vaccination. Further, this approach offers a route to predicting the relative success of emerging strains, which could be achieved by quantifying the combined effects of population level immune escape and viral fitness on strain evolution.
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We thank R. van Beek, W. Beyer, T. Bhattacharya, R. Bush, N. Cox, B. Grenfell, J. Gog, H. Gutowitz, A. Hay, R. Hightower, T. Jones, A. Tang, the contributors to the WHO global influenza surveillance network, and the maintainers of the Influenza Sequence Database (www.flu.lanl.gov). We acknowledge the support of the Santa Fe Institute and the Dutch National Institute of Public Health and the Environment (RIVM). D.J.S. was supported by European Union grant QLRT-2001-01034. A.S.L. was supported by the U.S. Department of Energy, contract W-7405-ENG-36, under the Laboratory-Directed Research and Development program. R.A.M.F. is a fellow of the Royal Dutch Academy of Arts and Sciences.
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Science
Volume 305 | Issue 5682
16 July 2004
16 July 2004
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American Association for the Advancement of Science.
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Received: 26 February 2004
Accepted: 11 June 2004
Published in print: 16 July 2004
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www.sciencemag.org/cgi/content/full/1097211/DC1
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