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Why Are Species’ Traits Weak Predictors of Range Shifts?
- Steven R. Beissinger1,2, and Eric A. Riddell3
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View Affiliations Hide AffiliationsAffiliations: 1Department of Environmental Science, Policy, and Management, University of California, Berkeley, California 94720, USA; email: [email protected] 2Museum of Vertebrate Zoology, University of California, Berkeley, California 94720, USA 3Department of Ecology, Evolution, and Organismal Biology, Iowa State University, Ames, Iowa 50050, USA; email: [email protected]
- Vol. 52:47-66 (Volume publication date November 2021) https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev-ecolsys-012021-092849
- First published as a Review in Advance on August 10, 2021
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Copyright © 2021 by Annual Reviews. All rights reserved
Abstract
We examine the evidence linking species’ traits to contemporary range shifts and find they are poor predictors of range shifts that have occurred over decades to a century. We then discuss reasons for the poor performance of traits for describing interspecific variation in range shifts from two perspectives: (a) factors associated with species’ traits that degrade range-shift signals stemming from the measures used for species’ traits, traits that are typically not analyzed, and the influence of phylogeny on range-shift potential and (b) issues in quantifying range shifts and relating them to species’ traits due to imperfect detection of species, differences in the responses of altitudinal and latitudinal ranges, and emphasis on testing linear relationships between traits and range shifts instead of nonlinear responses. Improving trait-based approaches requires a recognition that traits within individuals interact in unexpected ways and that different combinations of traits may be functionally equivalent.
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