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First published May 2006

Democracy and Crime: A Multilevel Analysis of Homicide Trends in Forty-Four Countries, 1950-2000

Gary Lafree and Andromachi TseloniView all authors and affiliations
Volume 605, Issue 1
https://doi.org/10.1177/0002716206287169

Abstract

Despite simultaneous increases in democratization and violent crime rates in many countries during the second half of the twentieth century, the authors could find no prior studies that have directly examined possible connections between these two processes. The civilization perspective predicts that violent crime rates will decline along with the civilizing effects of democratization, the conflict perspective predicts that violent crime rates will increase along with the brutalizing effects of the market economies that so far have universally accompanied democratization, and the modernization perspective predicts that violent crime rates will initially increase with the transition to democracy but then decline as democracies mature. Our analysis of data from forty-four countries from 1950 to 2000 shows the most support for a modernization perspective: violent crime rates are highest for transitional democracies. However, as predicted by the conflict perspective, we also find that during the second half of the twentieth century homicide rates gradually increased for full democracies.

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1.
1. Skewness of the distribution of ln(homicide rate) is considerably lower (0.34) than that of the original distribution of homicide rates (5.21). Similarly, taking the natural logarithms of the raw homicide rates decreased kurtosis from 39.75 to 3.03. Thus, the distribution of the transformed series, that is, ln(homicide rate), approximates the Gaussian.
2.
2. The Gurr et al. (Gurr 1974; Gurr, Jaggers, and Moore 1990; Jaggers and Gurr 1995; Marshall and Jaggers 2003) democracy scale has been criticized for capturing only procedural aspects of democracy and failing to measure consensual democratic procedures and aspects of consolidated democracy (Bollen and Paxton 2000; Kruzman, Werum, and Bukhart 2002; Munch and Verkuilen 2002). We therefore experimented with several other democracy measures before choosing this scale, including measures developed by Freedom House (2002) and Bollen (1993). However, these other scales are highly correlated with the Gurr et al. scale, which also produced the largest and most diverse sample of countries for analysis.
3.
3. Professor Tryggvi Thor Herbertsson kindly provided Gini coefficients for Iceland.
4.
4. We also included three dummy variables to account for major historic changes in the collection of the homicide data series. First, until 1963, homicide statistics for France included Algeria. Second, after 1991, our data for West Germany are for unified Germany. And finally, after 1992, our data for Czechoslovakia are from only the Czech Republic. However, since none of these measures had a significant effect on the results (available on request), they have been excluded from the present models.
5.
5. The main advantage of the multilevel approach (as opposed, for instance, to panel data analysis) is that it is more efficient at dealing with unbalanced or incomplete data structures (Snijders and Bosker 1999).
6.
6. A quadratic term of time, that is, (t - t0)2, was also fitted but showed no statistically significant fixed or random effects.
7.
7. This is calculated as exp(0.7879) from Table 4.
8.
8. The total standard deviation (over countries and years) of the estimated mean homicide rates in 1975 is 1.199 calculated as (1.2535 + 0.1838); results available on request.
9.
9. The lower and upper boundaries of homicide rate confidence intervals are calculated as exp(0.7879 - 1.96 × 1.12) and exp(0.7879 + 1.96 1.12), respectively; results available on request.
10.
10. Each estimated coefficient in Table 4, bk (k = 0, 1,..., K), gives, in general, the change in the predicted dependent variable, ln(ĥti), due to a unit increase in the respective covariate. Most covariates in this study are binary or nominal; therefore, bk reflects the change in the predicted dependent variable due to the respective characteristic as opposed to the reference characteristic or base. Because the dependent variable in this study is the natural logarithm of homicide rates, the exponent of each estimated coefficient, that is, exp(bk), gives the multiplicative effect on predicted homicide rates due to a unit increase of the respective covariate or due to assuming the respective characteristic rather than the reference one.
11.
11. The regional dummy variables of East Europe and Latin America/Caribbean do not significantly affect the slope of the relationship between homicide rates and democracy. Interaction effects between each of these dummy variables and the democracy scale were fitted in a preliminary analysis and were essentially zero. Similarly, income inequality was not found to interact with the democracy scale in affecting homicide rates.
12.
12. Indeed, the effect of Estonia on homicide growth rates was found to be 2.26 in an estimated model, which differed from the one presented here by including a dummy variable for this country rather than the entire region of East Europe.

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Published In

Volume 605, Issue 1
Pages: 25 - 49
Article first published: May 2006
Issue published: May 2006

Keywords

  1. democracy
  2. violent crime
  3. modernization
  4. conflict
  5. transitional democracies
  6. homicide
  7. civilization perspective

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Gary Lafree
National Center for the Study of Terrorism and Responses to Terrorism (START) at the University of Maryland, Department of Criminology and Criminal Justice, Democracy Collaborative
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