- Dean's Office, Faculty of Commerce, University of Cape Town, Private bag, RONDEBOSCH 7701, Cape Town, SOUTH AFRICA
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Don Ross
University College Cork, School of Society, Politics, and Ethics, Faculty Member
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Georgia State University, Center for Economic Analysis of Risk, Faculty MemberUniversity of Cape Town, School of Economics, Faculty Member add
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F Mri, Economics, Development Economics, Experimental Economics, International Economics, Neuroeconomics, and 51 moreSocioeconomics, Transport Economics, Institutional Economics, Game Theory, Industrial Organization, Microeconomics, Social Sciences, Economic Sociology, Decision Making, History of Economic Thought, Industrial Economics, Addiction, Neuroimaging, Judgment and Decision Making (Judgment And Decision Making), Poverty, Experimental games, Evolution of cooperation (Evolutionary Biology), The industrialization of agriculture: vertical coordination in the US food system., Transportation Studies, Air Transport, International Trade, Road Transport, Parkinson's Disease, Distributed Cognition, Situated Cognition, Embodied Cognition, Economic Growth, Africa, Gambling Studies, Computational Neuroscience, Poverty Analysis, Poverty Alleviation Programmes, Collective Action, Social science (Africa), Transport Planning, Commons (Biology), Reputation (Biology), Social Norms (Biology), Intraspecies Cooperation (Evolution of cooperation), Interspecies Cooperation, Personhood, Road Studies, Philosophy of Psychology, Philosophy of Science, Reinforcement Learning, Political Economy, Philosophy of Social Science, Cognitive Science, Behavioral Economics, Development Studies, and Neuroscience edit
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I'm Professor and Head of the School of Society, Politics, and Ethics at University College Cork, Ireland; Professor ... moreI'm Professor and Head of the School of Society, Politics, and Ethics at University College Cork, Ireland; Professor of Economics at the University of Cape Town, South Africa; and Program Director for Methodology at the Center for Economic Analysis of Risk, Georgia State University, USA. My research focuses on the foundations of economic theory, the experimental economics of addiction, risk, and time preference, philosophy of science, and infrastructure, trade and industry policy in Africa.
Notable publications include ECONOMIC THEORY AND COGNITIVE SCIENCE: MICROEXPLANATION (MIT Press 2005); MIDBRAIN MUTINY: THE PICOECONOMICS AND NEUROECONOMICS OF DISORDERED GAMBLING (with Carla Sharp, Rudy Vuchinich and David Spurrett, MIT Press 2008); EVERY THING MUST GO: METAPHYSICS NATURALIZED (with James Ladyman, Oxford University Press 2007) and PHILOSOPHY OF ECONOMICS (Palgrave Macmillan 2014). I'm co-editor with Harold Kincaid of THE OXFORD HANDBOOK OF PHILOSOPHY OF ECONOMICS (2009).
I'm the author the article on Game Theory in the Stanford Encyclopedia of Philosophy. Go to http://plato.stanford.edu/entries/game-theory/
I'm Canadian, a long-time resident of South Africa, and married to Dr. Nelleke Bak. edit
Research Interests:
This insightful Modern Guide offers a broad coverage of questions and controversies encountered by contemporary economists. A refreshing approach to philosophy of economics, chapters comprise a range of methodological and theoretical... more
This insightful Modern Guide offers a broad coverage of questions and controversies encountered by contemporary economists. A refreshing approach to philosophy of economics, chapters comprise a range of methodological and theoretical perspectives, from lab and field experiments to macroeconomics and applied policy work, written using a familiar, accessible language for economists.
Highlighting key areas of methodological controversy, the Modern Guide looks at estimating utility functions in choice data, causal modelling, and ethics in randomised control trials. Chapters further explore topical issues, including: economists’ attitudes to other disciplines; gender bias in economic research; methods of modelling social influence in economics; behavioural welfare economics; anti-poverty policy controversies; and inflexible reliance on DSGE models in macroeconomics. Furthermore, it explores the implications of the last financial crisis for macroeconomic confidence, and ways to adapt abstract theory to everyday policy advice.
Avoiding philosophical jargon, and with the majority of chapters written by economists, this Modern Guide will challenge economists and scholars of philosophy of economics to engage with different approaches to the topic. This will also be a useful tool for policy makers administering nudges, development initiatives, macro-forecasting and monetary policy.
Highlighting key areas of methodological controversy, the Modern Guide looks at estimating utility functions in choice data, causal modelling, and ethics in randomised control trials. Chapters further explore topical issues, including: economists’ attitudes to other disciplines; gender bias in economic research; methods of modelling social influence in economics; behavioural welfare economics; anti-poverty policy controversies; and inflexible reliance on DSGE models in macroeconomics. Furthermore, it explores the implications of the last financial crisis for macroeconomic confidence, and ways to adapt abstract theory to everyday policy advice.
Avoiding philosophical jargon, and with the majority of chapters written by economists, this Modern Guide will challenge economists and scholars of philosophy of economics to engage with different approaches to the topic. This will also be a useful tool for policy makers administering nudges, development initiatives, macro-forecasting and monetary policy.
Research Interests:
The book gathers original essays by leading philosophers on the question of whether, and how, metaphysics should be naturalized. Though naturalization has been used to mean a variety of different things, in this book it is generally taken... more
The book gathers original essays by leading philosophers on the question of whether, and how, metaphysics should be naturalized. Though naturalization has been used to mean a variety of different things, in this book it is generally taken to refer to the project of making metaphysics a part of natural science, motivated by the same aims and subject to the same demands as science. Of course, there is rich room for debate about just what these aims and demands are, and over whether any specific kind of metaphysics could achieve and satisfy them. The book includes a rich range of perspectives on these debates. (It does not aim to include voices defending traditional, non-naturalized metaphysics.) In the course of this, numerous related sub-topics are treated in detail. These include the general nature of reality according to physics, the relationships between physics and special sciences, the relationship between scientific and everyday ideas of mind, subjectivity and the kinds of things there are, and attitudes toward metaphysics among historical precursors of contemporary views, such as Kant, Quine, and Peirce. Contributors are Anjan Chakravartty, Daniel Dennett, Michael Friedman, Paul Humphreys, Jenann Ismael, Harold Kincaid, James Ladyman, Andrew Melnyk, Don Ross and Mark Wilson.
https://global.oup.com/academic/product/scientific-metaphysics-9780198744108?cc=ie&lang=en&
https://global.oup.com/academic/product/scientific-metaphysics-9780198744108?cc=ie&lang=en&
This English version of a preface to the forthcoming Japanese edition of ET&CS:M identifies issues raised in my 2005 book on which I would place greater or different emphasis in light of developments in economics, cognitive science and... more
This English version of a preface to the forthcoming Japanese edition of ET&CS:M identifies issues raised in my 2005 book on which I would place greater or different emphasis in light of developments in economics, cognitive science and the philosophy of economics that have occurred over the past decade.
Research Interests:
The book develops a comprehensive philosophy of economics within a framework of naturalistic philosophy of science. It does not proceed by way of conceptual analysis. Rather, it identifies the working ontological and methodological... more
The book develops a comprehensive philosophy of economics within a framework of naturalistic philosophy of science. It does not proceed by way of conceptual analysis. Rather, it identifies the working ontological and methodological contours of both microeconomics and macroeconomics since World War II, but with primary focus on the contemporary scene, by examining the relationships between economics and two of its cognate disciplines, psychology and sociology. The early parts of the book explain the motivations for and technical nature of the completion in the 1940s of Pareto’s project to separate economics from psychology. It then presents the spread of game theory through economics in the 1980s and 1990s as the realization of Hayek’s vision of the discipline as the science of the processing of information by markets. The crisis for Keynesian microfoundations is reviewed, and in this context methodological individualism is considered and rejected. This urgently raises questions about how individuals, groups, and markets are actually related. The theoretical foundations of behavioural economics are critically reviewed, and arguments are given against the radical program that aims at reversing the Pareto-Samuelson programme and collapsing microeconomics into psychology. Instead, a methodological orientation characterized as ‘neo-Samuelsonian’ is developed and defended. This maintains revealed preference theory (RPT) by continuing to identify preferences with choices, but under a ‘field’ rather than episodic understanding of both. This avoids the implication of behaviourist RPT that economic agents can never make errors, an implication which would make welfare and policy economics incoherent. The neo-Samuelsonian approach is shown to make natural sense of current methods for estimating utility functions of real experimental subjects as summaries of stochastic data-generating processes. This in turn allows for clear formulation of the fundamental difference between psychology and experimental microeconomics: the former seeks generalizations about individual mental dispositions across informational and social contexts, whereas the latter studies people as vectors of social information transformations in strategic, and particularly in market, settings. Vernon Smith’s ecological economics, and Binmore’s game-theoretic reconstruction of social normativity, are interpreted as examples of the neo-Samuelsonian philosophy. Finally, in the last chapter, the book argues that, in contrast to the situation with psychology, macroeconomics and mesoeconomics can be expected to substantially converge with sociology, as economists incorporate mathematical network theory into their analyses of markets, and formalize the idea of team agency using Stirling’s conditional game theory. The forecast is not for imperialistic absorption of sociology into economics. Rather, economists are at last developing the formal tools that allow them to unify their models of markets with sociological analyses of power and social influence. The value of these tools lies in their power for identifying empirical structures, not in formal elegance; nevertheless, their theoretical unification of obviously related processes represents exciting progress. Making this explicit is just what a naturalistic philosophy of economics should be expected to do.
http://www.palgrave.com/gp/book/9780230302969
http://www.palgrave.com/gp/book/9780230302969
The image of the addict in popular culture combines victimhood and moral failure; we sympathize with addicts in films and novels because of their suffering and their hard-won knowledge. And yet actual scientific knowledge about addiction... more
The image of the addict in popular culture combines victimhood and moral failure; we sympathize with addicts in films and novels because of their suffering and their hard-won knowledge. And yet actual scientific knowledge about addiction tends to undermine this cultural construct. In this book, addiction researchers from neuroscience, psychology, genetics, philosophy, economics, and other fields survey findings in addiction science. They discuss such questions as whether addiction is one kind of condition, or several; if it is neurophysiological, psychological, social, or incorporates aspects of all of these; to what extent addicts are responsible for their problems, and how this affects health and regulatory policies; and whether addiction is determined by inheritance or environment, or both. The contributors discuss the possibility of a unifying basis for different addictions (considering both substance addiction and pathological gambling), offering both neurally and neuroscientifically grounded accounts, as well as discussions of the social context of addiction.
https://mitpress.mit.edu/books/what-addiction
https://mitpress.mit.edu/books/what-addiction
Research Interests:
The Oxford Handbook of Philosophy of Economics is a reference work on philosophical issues in the practice of economics. It is motivated by the view that there is more to economics than general equilibrium theory, and that the philosophy... more
The Oxford Handbook of Philosophy of Economics is a reference work on philosophical issues in the practice of economics. It is motivated by the view that there is more to economics than general equilibrium theory, and that the philosophy of economics should reflect the diversity of activities and topics that currently occupy economists. Contributions in the book are thus closely tied to on-going theoretical and empirical concerns in economics. Contributors include both philosophers of science and economists. Articles fall into three general categories: received views in philosophy of economics, on-going controversies in microeconomics, and issues in modeling, macroeconomics, and development. Specific topics include methodology, game theory, experimental economics, behavioral economics, neuroeconomics, computational economics, data mining, interpersonal comparisons of utility, measurement of welfare and well-being, growth theory and development, and microfoundations of macroeconomics.
https://global.oup.com/academic/product/the-oxford-handbook-of-philosophy-of-economics-9780195189254?cc=ie&lang=en&
https://global.oup.com/academic/product/the-oxford-handbook-of-philosophy-of-economics-9780195189254?cc=ie&lang=en&
The explanatory power of economic theory is tested by the phenomenon of irrational consumption, examples of which include such addictive behaviors as disordered and pathological gambling. Midbrain Mutiny examines different economic models... more
The explanatory power of economic theory is tested by the phenomenon of irrational consumption, examples of which include such addictive behaviors as disordered and pathological gambling. Midbrain Mutiny examines different economic models of disordered gambling, using the frameworks of neuroeconomics (which analyzes decision making in the brain) and picoeconomics (which analyzes patterns of consumption behavior), and drawing on empirical evidence about behavior and the brain. The book describes addiction in neuroeconomic terms as chronic disruption of the balance between the midbrain dopamine system and the prefrontal and frontal serotonergic system, and reviews recent evidence from trials testing the effectiveness of antiaddiction drugs. The authors argue that the best way to understand disordered and addictive gambling is with a hybrid picoeconomic-neuroeconomic model.
https://mitpress.mit.edu/books/midbrain-mutiny
https://mitpress.mit.edu/books/midbrain-mutiny
This book argues that the only kind of metaphysics that can contribute to objective knowledge is one based specifically on contemporary science as it really is, and not on philosophers' a priori intuitions, common sense, or... more
This book argues that the only kind of metaphysics that can contribute to objective knowledge is one based specifically on contemporary science as it really is, and not on philosophers' a priori intuitions, common sense, or simplifications of science. In addition to showing how recent metaphysics has drifted away from connection with all other serious scholarly inquiry as a result of not heeding this restriction, this book demonstrates how to build a metaphysics compatible with current fundamental physics ("ontic structural realism"), which, when combined with metaphysics of the special sciences ("rainforest realism"), can be used to unify physics with the other sciences without reducing these sciences to physics itself. Taking science metaphysically seriously, this book argues, means that metaphysicians must abandon the picture of the world as composed of self-subsistent individual objects, and the paradigm of causation as the collision of such objects. The text assesses the role of information theory and complex systems theory in attempts to explain the relationship between the special sciences and physics, treading a middle road between the grand synthesis of thermodynamics and information, and eliminativism about information. The consequences of the books' metaphysical theory for central issues in the philosophy of science are explored, including the implications for the realism versus empiricism debate, the role of causation in scientific explanations, the nature of causation and laws, the status of abstract and virtual objects, and the objective reality of natural kinds. © James Ladyman, Don Ross, David Spurrett, and John Collier 2007. All rights reserved.
https://global.oup.com/academic/product/every-thing-must-go-9780199276196?cc=ie&lang=en&
https://global.oup.com/academic/product/every-thing-must-go-9780199276196?cc=ie&lang=en&
Recent scientific findings about human decision making would seem to threaten the traditional concept of the individual conscious will. The will is threatened from “below” by the discovery that our apparently spontaneous actions are... more
Recent scientific findings about human decision making would seem to threaten the traditional concept of the individual conscious will. The will is threatened from “below” by the discovery that our apparently spontaneous actions are actually controlled and initiated from below the level of our conscious awareness, and from “above” by the recognition that we adapt our actions according to social dynamics of which we are seldom aware. In Distributed Cognition and the Will, leading philosophers and behavioral scientists consider how much, if anything, of the traditional concept of the individual conscious will survives these discoveries, and they assess the implications for our sense of freedom and responsibility. The contributors all take science seriously, and they are inspired by the idea that apparent threats to the cogency of the idea of will might instead become the basis of its reemergence as a scientific subject. They consider macro-scale issues of society and culture, the micro-scale dynamics of the mind/brain, and connections between macro-scale and micro-scale phenomena in the self-guidance and self-regulation of personal behavior.
https://mitpress.mit.edu/books/distributed-cognition-and-will
https://mitpress.mit.edu/books/distributed-cognition-and-will
It is widely believed that economic development in much of the world is not happening quickly enough. Indeed, the standard of living in some parts of the world has actually been declining. Many experts now doubt that the solution can be... more
It is widely believed that economic development in much of the world is not happening quickly enough. Indeed, the standard of living in some parts of the world has actually been declining. Many experts now doubt that the solution can be purely technical and economic; it must also be political and moral. This book brings together contributions from leading authorities, such as Joseph Stiglitz, Jean-Jacques Laffont and Daniel Hausman, on economics and political philosophy to survey current barriers to growth, including problems with policy and problems with concepts and thinking. Getting policies right, the contributors stress, is a complicated task in itself, but it also may not be enough; instead, people in both the developed and developing worlds may also need to reconsider basic and time-worn beliefs about facts, values, the measurement of data, rights, needs and the nature of government.
Of interest to economics and policy makers, Development Dilemmas is a long-awaited addition to the debate over economics and political philosophy in the developing world.
https://books.google.ie/books/about/Development_Dilemmas.html?id=havfPPfxtx0C&redir_esc=y
Of interest to economics and policy makers, Development Dilemmas is a long-awaited addition to the debate over economics and political philosophy in the developing world.
https://books.google.ie/books/about/Development_Dilemmas.html?id=havfPPfxtx0C&redir_esc=y
In this study, Don Ross explores the relationship of economics to other branches of behavioral science, asking, in the course of his analysis, under what interpretation economics is a sound empirical science. The book explores the... more
In this study, Don Ross explores the relationship of economics to other branches of behavioral science, asking, in the course of his analysis, under what interpretation economics is a sound empirical science. The book explores the relationships between economic theory and the theoretical foundations of related disciplines that are relevant to the day-to-day work of economics—the cognitive and behavioral sciences. It asks whether the increasingly sophisticated techniques of microeconomic analysis have revealed any deep empirical regularities—whether technical improvement represents improvement in any other sense. Casting Daniel Dennett and Kenneth Binmore as its intellectual heroes, the book proposes a comprehensive model of economic theory that, Ross argues, does not supplant but recovers the core neoclassical insights and counters the caricaturish conception of neoclassicism so derided by advocates of behavioral or evolutionary economics. Because he approaches his topic from the viewpoint of the philosophy of science, Ross devotes one chapter to the philosophical theory and terminology on which his argument depends and another to related philosophical issues. Two chapters provide the theoretical background in economics, one covering developments in neoclassical microeconomics and the other treating behavioral and experimental economics and evolutionary game theory. The three chapters at the heart of the argument then apply theses from the philosophy of cognitive science to foundational problems for economic theory. In these chapters economists will find a genuinely new way of thinking about the implications of cognitive science for economics and cognitive scientists will find in economic behavior a new testing site for the explanations of cognitive science.
https://mitpress.mit.edu/books/economic-theory-and-cognitive-science
https://mitpress.mit.edu/books/economic-theory-and-cognitive-science
Author of such groundbreaking and influential books as Consciousness Explained and Darwin's Dangerous Idea, Daniel C. Dennett has reached a huge general and professional audience that extends far beyond the confines of academic... more
Author of such groundbreaking and influential books as Consciousness Explained and Darwin's Dangerous Idea, Daniel C. Dennett has reached a huge general and professional audience that extends far beyond the confines of academic philosophy. Dennett has made significant contributions to the study of consciousness, the development of the child's mind, cognitive ethnology, explanation in the social sciences, artificial intelligence, and evolutionary theory. This volume is the only truly introductory collection that traces these connections, explores the implications of Dennett's work, and furnishes the non-specialist with a fully-rounded account of why Dennett is such an important voice on the philosophical scene.
https://www.amazon.com/Daniel-Dennett-Contemporary-Philosophy-Focus/dp/0521008646
https://www.amazon.com/Daniel-Dennett-Contemporary-Philosophy-Focus/dp/0521008646
The influential philosopher Daniel Dennett is best known for his distinctive theory of mental content, his elucidation of how the complex components of mental processing seem to come together in the relatively coherent narratives that we... more
The influential philosopher Daniel Dennett is best known for his distinctive theory of mental content, his elucidation of how the complex components of mental processing seem to come together in the relatively coherent narratives that we tell ourselves about ourselves and in his vivid accounts of how to think about minds in their evolutionary setting. The essays in this collection step back to ask: Do the complex components of Dennett's work on intentionality, consciousness, evolution, and ethics themselves come together into a coherent philosophical system? The essays, which grew out of a conference attended by Dennett, consider evolution, intentionality, consciousness, ontology, and ethics and free will. Unusually, for a collection of this kind, the authors were able to take account of Dennett's comments on their views. In the concluding essay, "With a Little Help from My Friends," Dennett offers his own thoughts on the comprehensiveness of his philosophy.
https://mitpress.mit.edu/books/dennetts-philosophy
https://mitpress.mit.edu/books/dennetts-philosophy
This paper extends stationary Markov chain convergence theory to model discrete-time regular multivariate Markov chains with joint-conditioning transition probability functions that condition the future state of each process on the... more
This paper extends stationary Markov chain convergence theory to model discrete-time regular multivariate Markov chains with joint-conditioning transition probability functions that condition the future state of each process on the present states of all processes considered jointly. This result is a formal extension of currently modeled multivariate Markov chains discussed in the literature, which employ marginal-conditioning transition probability functions that condition the future state of each process separately on the present state of each of the complementary processes considered individually. The advantage of this generalization is that it accounts for interdependencies among the members of the complementary sets. We also establish that it is generally not possible to deduce equivalent marginal-conditioning transition probability functions from joint-conditioning probability functions. Our methodology is to establish the existence of a Markov equivalent complementary graphical representation of a multivariate Markov process with the complementary subset of the process as vertices and the edges comprising joint-conditioning/joint-conditioned transition probabilities, to which the Markov chain convergence theorem may be directly applied. This generalization is particularly applicable to scenarios where interrelationships between conditioning sources of causal or informational influence cannot be modeled as individual conditioning functions, and potentially informs designs for domains such as economic experiments, mobile robotics, and other artificial intelligence applications.
Research Interests:
Research Interests:
Recently, philosophers have developed an extensive literature on social ontology that applies methods and concepts from analytic metaphysics. Much of this is entirely abstracted from, and unconcerned with, social science. However, Epstein... more
Recently, philosophers have developed an extensive literature on social ontology that applies methods and concepts from analytic metaphysics. Much of this is entirely abstracted from, and unconcerned with, social science. However, Epstein (2015) argues explicitly that analytic social metaphysics, provided its account of ontological 'grounding' is repaired in specific ways, can rescue social science from explanatory impasses into which he thinks it has fallen. This version of analytic social ontology thus directly competes with radically naturalistic alternatives, in a way that helps to clarify what makes some metaphysics genuinely scientific (that is, part of the scientific enterprise and worldview). I consider this competition, marshal considerations against the value to social science of analytic metaphysics, and sketch a contrasting scientific metaphysics for understanding the implications of revisionist social ontology in unified scientific ontology.
Research Interests:
Research Interests:
The rise of behavioral economics since the 1980s led to richer mutual influence between economic and psychological theory and experimentation. However, as behavioral economics has become increasingly integrated into the main stream in... more
The rise of behavioral economics since the 1980s led to richer mutual
influence between economic and psychological theory and
experimentation. However, as behavioral economics has become
increasingly integrated into the main stream in economics, and as
psychology has remained damagingly methodologically conservative,
this convergence has recently gone into reverse. At the same time,
growing appreciation among economists of the limitations of atomistic
individualism, along with advantages in econometric modeling
flexibility by comparison with psychometrics, is leading economists to
become more pluralistic than psychologists about the ontology of
behavioral causation and structures. This, combined with economists’
growing interest in network models, is drawing economists closer in
theory and practice to sociologists who use quantitative or mixed
methods.
influence between economic and psychological theory and
experimentation. However, as behavioral economics has become
increasingly integrated into the main stream in economics, and as
psychology has remained damagingly methodologically conservative,
this convergence has recently gone into reverse. At the same time,
growing appreciation among economists of the limitations of atomistic
individualism, along with advantages in econometric modeling
flexibility by comparison with psychometrics, is leading economists to
become more pluralistic than psychologists about the ontology of
behavioral causation and structures. This, combined with economists’
growing interest in network models, is drawing economists closer in
theory and practice to sociologists who use quantitative or mixed
methods.
Research Interests:
Research Interests:
Behavioral economics poses a challenge for the welfare evaluation of choices, particularly those that involve risk. It demands that we recognize that the descriptive account of behavior towards those choices might not be the ones we were... more
Behavioral economics poses a challenge for the welfare evaluation of choices, particularly those that involve risk. It demands that we recognize that the descriptive account of behavior towards those choices might not be the ones we were all taught, and still teach, and that subjective risk perceptions might not accord with expert assessments of probabilities. In addition to these challenges, we are faced with the need to jettison naive notions of revealed preferences, according to which every choice by a subject expresses her objective function, as behavioral evidence forces us to confront pervasive inconsistencies and noise in a typical individual's choice data. A principled account of errant choice must be built into models used for identification and estimation. These challenges demand close attention to the methodological claims often used to justify policy interventions. They also require, we argue, closer attention by economists to relevant contributions from cognitive science. We propose that a quantitative application of the "intentional stance" of Dennett provides a coherent, attractive and general approach to behavioral welfare economics.
Research Interests:
Much of the game theory literature concerns mechanisms by which players can infer information about the utilities, beliefs, and strategies of other players based on actions within games and pre-play signals. When game theory is applied to... more
Much of the game theory literature concerns mechanisms by which players can infer information about the utilities, beliefs, and strategies of other players based on actions within games and pre-play signals. When game theory is applied to strategic interactions among people, such analysis interprets them as trying to "mindread". Recent work in cognitive science, however, suggests that human coordination rests more centrally and necessarily on "mindshaping" processes, in which people resolve equivocal preference content jointly. This kind of process cannot be modeled using standard resources of game theory. However, as mindshaping is strategic, there is motivation to widen the game theory toolkit to accommodate it. Conditional Game Theory is a strategic theory of mindshaping. We show how it can be used to help players of standard games identify correlated equilibrium, and thus solve games. We then extend CGT to address a challenge to the relevance of correlated equilibrium to empirical choice data. This is based on the fact that correlated equilibrium requires the Harsanyi Doctrine, according to which Baysian players share common priors; but the majority of observed empirical choice behavior under risk violates this Doctrine. We show how pre-play analysis using CGT can reconcile the Harsanyi Doctrine with rank-dependent choice as typically seen in economic experiments.
Research Interests:
Research Interests:
Addictions are typically characterised by cycles of abstinence and relapse over many years, with a variety of resolution states. Economic models of addiction assume intertemporal dependencies in the consumption of addictive goods, thereby... more
Addictions are typically characterised by cycles of abstinence and relapse over many years, with a variety of resolution states. Economic models of addiction assume intertemporal dependencies in the consumption of addictive goods, thereby incorporating attitudes to risk over time in explanations of addictive behaviour. We are the first to study the intertemporal risk attitudes of addicts. Focussing on smoking behaviour, we compare experimentally elicited risk preferences of addicts, former addicts, and controls. Contrary to an assumption taken up in standard economic models of addiction, smokers do not exhibit intertemporal risk seeking behaviour. Instead, our sample is characterised by high levels of intertemporal risk aversion which varies by smoking intensity and smoking severity in men, but not in women. Our results are the first to demonstrate the role that intertemporal risk attitudes, together with atemporal risk attitudes and discounting behaviour, play in the onset and pers...
Research Interests:
The role of informal norms in constraining available equilibria in social dynamics has increasingly interested social scientists. There is as yet no general theory of norms to play the role of a ‘default model’ against which innovations... more
The role of informal norms in constraining available equilibria in social dynamics has increasingly interested social scientists. There is as yet no general theory of norms to play the role of a ‘default model’ against which innovations and refinements can be assessed. The ambition to produce such a model is complicated by different, and apparently incompatible, ways in which economists and sociologists respectively conceptualise norms. A feature of norms that is emphasised in recent models is their conditionality: agents’ choices to conform their actions to norms are sensitive to the extent to which they observe corresponding behaviour in those with whom they interact (Bicchieri 2006, 2017). There is a weak sense in which conditionality is sown into the very fabric of game theory: whether a given choice is an element of an equilibrium strategy for an agent is a function of what other agents choose. Therefore, whether an action in a strategic setting maximizes an agent’s utility fun...
Research Interests:
Research Interests:
Research Interests:
This paper combines economic theory with GIS application to assess whether South African road authorities can satisfy constitutionally protected basic access needs without sacrificing economic growth. The trade-off between access to basic... more
This paper combines economic theory with GIS application to assess whether South African road authorities can satisfy constitutionally protected basic access needs without sacrificing economic growth. The trade-off between access to basic services for all citizens and economic growth is investigated, with particular attention to issues of constitutional obligations, quality of life, and the fundamental role of economic growth in poverty reduction. Based on Rawls’s Theory of Justice and game theory arguments presented by Binmore, lexicographical priority is assigned to basic access roads. Following the definition of basic access roads and an investigation of the national demand profile, the extent of the potential basic access road network is estimated using primary and secondary schools as a proxy for service centres.
Research Interests:
Atemporal risk preferences, time preferences, and intertemporal risk preferences are central to economic explanations of addiction, but have received little attention in the experimental economic literature on substance use. We conduct an... more
Atemporal risk preferences, time preferences, and intertemporal risk preferences are central to economic explanations of addiction, but have received little attention in the experimental economic literature on substance use. We conduct an incentive-compatible experiment designed to elicit the atemporal risk preferences, time preferences, and intertemporal risk preferences of a sample of student (n = 145) and staff (n = 111) smokers, ex-smokers, and non-smokers at the University of Cape Town in 2016-2017. We estimate a structural model of intertemporal risk preferences jointly with a rank-dependent utility model of choice under atemporal risk and a quasi-hyperbolic model of time preferences. We find no substantive differences in atemporal risk preferences according to smoking status, smoking intensity, and smoking severity, but do find that time preferences have an economically significant association with smoking behaviour. Smokers discount at a far higher rate than non-smokers, and...
Research Interests:
Many road authorities, including those in South Africa, are unable to reliably identify and prioritise the maintenance of two essential road categories: roads that are required to satisfy citizens’ constitutional right to access basic... more
Many road authorities, including those in South Africa, are unable to reliably identify and prioritise the maintenance of two essential road categories: roads that are required to satisfy citizens’ constitutional right to access basic services; and roads that maximise potential economic growth. This issue stems from reliance on the current set of classification systems, which lack the requisite detail to determine a road’s significance in connecting communities to basic service facilities, the volume and type of economic activity it supports, and overlaps between these functions. This paper therefore presents an economics-based road classification system customised for the South African road network. The new system disaggregates roads into four classes: Basic Access Roads; Strategic Roads; Tactical Roads; and Surplus Roads. The characteristics and maintenance priority level of each road class are addressed, along with an identification methodology that authorities can use to include...
Research Interests:
Geography, Development Economics, Transport Economics, Transportation Studies, Transportation Economics, and 9 moreRoad Transport, Transport Planning, Transportation, Road Pavement Engineering and Design, South Africa, Asset Management, South African Economy, HIGHWAY ROADS AND BRIDGES, and Economics Study of Infrastructure and Urban Development
Productive expenditure on road infrastructure contributes to economic growth as a factor of production, complement to other factors of production, stimulus to factor accumulation, stimulus to aggregate demand, and industrial policy tool.... more
Productive expenditure on road infrastructure contributes to economic growth as a factor of production, complement to other factors of production, stimulus to factor accumulation, stimulus to aggregate demand, and industrial policy tool. On the other hand, unproductive or insufficient investment in road infrastructure may crowd out private sector investment, increase operational costs, reduce the life-span of private sector capital, necessitate private capital adjustment costs, decrease labour productivity, and impinge on human development. This paper uses economic growth theory to explain the roles of road infrastructure investment in the growth process, with reference made to studies that confirm the relevance, direction, and magnitude of these effects in South Africa. Details of national development policies, the geographic structure of the South African economy, the state of the country’s rail sector, and freight, personal travel, proximity to basic services, rural-urban migrati...
Research Interests:
Transportation Engineering, Economics, Development Economics, Transport Economics, Sustainable Transportation, and 9 moreTransportation Studies, Transportation Economics, Road Transport, Transport Planning, Transportation, Road Pavement Engineering and Design, South African Economy, Impact of Road Infrastructure on Economic Growth, and HIGHWAY ROADS AND BRIDGES
Political scientists have conventionally assumed that achieving democracy is a one-way ratchet. Only very recently has the question of “democratic backsliding” attracted any research attention. We argue that democratic instability is best... more
Political scientists have conventionally assumed that achieving democracy is a one-way ratchet. Only very recently has the question of “democratic backsliding” attracted any research attention. We argue that democratic instability is best understood with tools from complexity science. The explanatory power of complexity science arises from several features of complex systems. Their relevance in the context of democracy is discussed. Several policy recommendations are offered to help (re)stabilize current systems of representative democracy.
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Ainslie insightfully refines the concept of willpower by emphasizing low-effort applications of resolve. However, he gives undue weight to intertemporal discounting as the problem that willpower is needed to overcome. Nonhumans typically... more
Ainslie insightfully refines the concept of willpower by emphasizing low-effort applications of resolve. However, he gives undue weight to intertemporal discounting as the problem that willpower is needed to overcome. Nonhumans typically don't encounter choices that differ only in the time of consumption. Humans learn to transform uncertainty into problems they can solve using culturally evolved mechanisms for quantifying risk.
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Stanford casts original light on the question of why humans moralize some preferences. However, his account leaves some ambiguity around the relationship between the evolutionary function of moralization and the dynamics of tribal... more
Stanford casts original light on the question of why humans moralize some preferences. However, his account leaves some ambiguity around the relationship between the evolutionary function of moralization and the dynamics of tribal formation. Does the model govern these dynamics, or only explain why there are moralizing dispositions that more conventional modeling of the dynamics can exploit?
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It is widely appreciated that establishment and maintenance of coordination are among the key evolutionary promoters and stabilizers of human language. In consequence, it is also generally recognized that game theory is an important tool... more
It is widely appreciated that establishment and maintenance of coordination are among the key evolutionary promoters and stabilizers of human language. In consequence, it is also generally recognized that game theory is an important tool for studying these phenomena. However, the best known game theoretic applications to date tend to assimilate linguistic communication with signaling. The individualistic philosophical bias in Western social ontology makes signaling seem more challenging than it really is, and thus focuses attention on theoretical problems – for example, coordination on lexical meaning – that actual evolution did not need to solve by improving humans’ strategic or social intelligence relative to the endowments of other primates. At the same time, issues of genuine evolutionary significance related to language, especially those around the tensions between individual and collective agency, and around intergenerational accumulation of knowledge, are obscured. This in tu...
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Increases in the availability of gambling heighten the need for a short screening measure of problem gambling. The Problem Gambling Severity Index (PGSI) is a brief measure that allows for the assessment of characteristics of gambling... more
Increases in the availability of gambling heighten the need for a short screening measure of problem gambling. The Problem Gambling Severity Index (PGSI) is a brief measure that allows for the assessment of characteristics of gambling behavior and severity and its consequences. The authors evaluate the psychometric properties of the PGSI using item response theory methods in a representative sample of the urban adult population in South Africa ( N = 3,000). The PGSI items were evaluated for differential item functioning (DIF) due to language translation. DIF was not detected. The PGSI was found to be unidimensional, and use of the nominal categories model provided additional information at higher values of the underlying construct relative to a simpler binary model. This study contributes to the growing literature supporting the PGSI as the screen of choice for assessing gambling problems in the general population.
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Psychology, Assessment, Evaluation Research, Item Response Theory, Personality Disorders, and 15 moreProblem gambling, Humans, Differential Item Functioning, Business and Management, Psychological, Gambling, Female, Male, Psychometric Properties, Adult, Chi Square Distribution, Psychological Theory, Indexation, Personality Tests, and General Population
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In the English-speaking world and some parts of Europe, problem and pathological gambling are treated as a significant public health problem. At the same time, these jurisdictions recognise that for most of those who engage in it,... more
In the English-speaking world and some parts of Europe, problem and pathological gambling are treated as a significant public health problem. At the same time, these jurisdictions recognise that for most of those who engage in it, gambling is a harmless leisure activity that may yield public benefits by contributing more in taxation than other leisure industries and/or contributing to out-of-town tourism. Strategies that combine minimising the harm caused with maximising the benefits of gambling are therefore crucial for good public policy. Such lessons may also be relevant to other legal and illegal industries, such as those involving the production and sales of alcohol, where analogous harms and benefits exist.
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We convey our experiences developing and implementing an online experiment to elicit subjective beliefs and economic preferences. The COVID-19 pandemic and associated closures of our laboratories required us to conduct an online... more
We convey our experiences developing and implementing an online experiment to elicit subjective beliefs and economic preferences. The COVID-19 pandemic and associated closures of our laboratories required us to conduct an online experiment in order to collect beliefs and preferences associated with the pandemic in a timely manner. Since we had not previously conducted a similar multi-wave online experiment, we faced design and implementation considerations that are not present when running a typical laboratory experiment. By discussing these details more fully, we hope to contribute to the online experiment methodology literature at a time when many other researchers may be considering conducting an online experiment for the first time. We focus primarily on methodology; in a complementary study we focus on initial research findings.
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Interview by Richard Marshall of Don Ross. 'The atomistic understanding of mind is not, in my view, even generally useful as an idealisation. It profoundly misrepresents what minds are. Following Dennett and many other current... more
Interview by Richard Marshall of Don Ross.
'The atomistic understanding of mind is not, in my view, even generally useful as an idealisation. It profoundly misrepresents what minds are. Following Dennett and many other current philosophers, I’m persuaded that minds are constructs built under social pressure. People are socially required, in order to usefully contribute to joint projects, to be comprehensible and relatively consistent, but also to manifest some identifying ‘signature’ patterns in their self-presentations that distinguish them from others.'
'Biology tends never to yield bright lines between conditions like ‘has language / does not have language’. My co-investigators and I are empirically studying one piece of this tangle of relationships, the prospect that elephants, like humans, manage uncertainty by using joint representations to transform it into risk. We’re doing this by adapting the experimental design we use with humans in our experimental economics lab. Elephants can do enough basic arithmetic to learn how to consistently distinguish uncertain prospects by magnitude differences, and conditional probabilities don’t baffle them.'
'‘Theory’ means different things in different sciences. In some it’s customary to refer to very general hypotheses as theories. But in economics theory means: a structure that can be used to identify data and estimate parameters. By direct implication, then, a theory is a filter, a device to force consistency in interpreting observations so that knowledge can, if we’re lucky and careful, accumulate.'
'... the most fruitful and successful work in economics is social science, not behavioural science. Insofar as economics has a fundamental class of phenomena to study, these have always been, and remain, markets. The concept of a market applies very broadly, to any system of networked information processing about relative marginal values of flows and stocks of resources that agents in the network seek to control. Markets of goods and services that are priced using money are only one, hugely socially important, kind of market. But where the question at hand is concerned they all have something in common: they are social phenomena.'
'Friendship is among the greatest of human goods, because its true manifestation is helping specific others defend and extend what is special about them.'
'I see no reason to regard ... Sellarsian / Dennettian work as metaphysics, since it isn’t trying to discover the general structure of reality. It’s cognitive anthropology, aiming to enrich and empower our knowledge of ourselves. Art does that too, though it’s only one of many enormously valuable things that art does. But enhanced knowledge of the objective structures of the world that are independent of human practical and moral concerns is delivered only by empirical science and mathematics. So thought the positivists, and they were right (about that).'
' 3:16 3:16(/) (/)
'The atomistic understanding of mind is not, in my view, even generally useful as an idealisation. It profoundly misrepresents what minds are. Following Dennett and many other current philosophers, I’m persuaded that minds are constructs built under social pressure. People are socially required, in order to usefully contribute to joint projects, to be comprehensible and relatively consistent, but also to manifest some identifying ‘signature’ patterns in their self-presentations that distinguish them from others.'
'Biology tends never to yield bright lines between conditions like ‘has language / does not have language’. My co-investigators and I are empirically studying one piece of this tangle of relationships, the prospect that elephants, like humans, manage uncertainty by using joint representations to transform it into risk. We’re doing this by adapting the experimental design we use with humans in our experimental economics lab. Elephants can do enough basic arithmetic to learn how to consistently distinguish uncertain prospects by magnitude differences, and conditional probabilities don’t baffle them.'
'‘Theory’ means different things in different sciences. In some it’s customary to refer to very general hypotheses as theories. But in economics theory means: a structure that can be used to identify data and estimate parameters. By direct implication, then, a theory is a filter, a device to force consistency in interpreting observations so that knowledge can, if we’re lucky and careful, accumulate.'
'... the most fruitful and successful work in economics is social science, not behavioural science. Insofar as economics has a fundamental class of phenomena to study, these have always been, and remain, markets. The concept of a market applies very broadly, to any system of networked information processing about relative marginal values of flows and stocks of resources that agents in the network seek to control. Markets of goods and services that are priced using money are only one, hugely socially important, kind of market. But where the question at hand is concerned they all have something in common: they are social phenomena.'
'Friendship is among the greatest of human goods, because its true manifestation is helping specific others defend and extend what is special about them.'
'I see no reason to regard ... Sellarsian / Dennettian work as metaphysics, since it isn’t trying to discover the general structure of reality. It’s cognitive anthropology, aiming to enrich and empower our knowledge of ourselves. Art does that too, though it’s only one of many enormously valuable things that art does. But enhanced knowledge of the objective structures of the world that are independent of human practical and moral concerns is delivered only by empirical science and mathematics. So thought the positivists, and they were right (about that).'
' 3:16 3:16(/) (/)
Presentation on nudging, boosting and paternalism by way of an applied case study.
The aim of this book is to defend a radically naturalistic metaphysics. By this we mean a metaphysics that is motivated exclusively by attempts to unify hypotheses and theories that are taken seriously by contemporary science. For reasons... more
The aim of this book is to defend a radically naturalistic metaphysics. By this we mean a metaphysics that is motivated exclusively by attempts to unify hypotheses and theories that are taken seriously by contemporary science. For reasons to be explained, we take the view that no alternative kind of metaphysics can be regarded as a legitimate part of our collective attempt to model the structure of objective reality.
Book Chapter written with Don Ross and James Ladyman in Ladyman & Ross's 'Everything Must Go'.
Book Chapter written with Don Ross and James Ladyman in Ladyman & Ross's 'Everything Must Go'.
Improving the quality and extending the distribution of lower-skilled human capital that has a non-negative shadow value is an urgent policy priority in South Africa. This paper therefore explores the employment benefits of a policy to... more
Improving the quality and extending the distribution of lower-skilled human capital that has a non-negative shadow value is an urgent policy priority in South Africa. This paper therefore explores the employment benefits of a policy to surface provincial and municipal gravel roads with a light bituminous seal. The analysis indicates that sealing gravel roads could generate approximately 7.1 million full-time equivalent job opportunities, with most of these jobs located in predominantly rural provinces with the highest levels of unemployment. The total full-time equivalent job opportunities are distributed over short- to long-term timeframes to indicate the potential impact that alternative upgrade schedules could have on the unemployment rate. In addition to these employment benefits, a policy to seal gravel roads can substitute locally available labour for currently imported capital equipment, reduce short-term rural-urban migration pressures, develop human capital, and realise a lifecycle cost saving once the shadow price is substituted for the artificially inflated market wage for unskilled labour. All these factors lead to the conclusion that gravel roads worth maintaining should be sealed at a rate possible within budget limits.
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Economics, Development Economics, Transportation Studies, Road Transport, Labour Economics, and 7 moreRoad Pavement Engineering and Design, Labour, Transportation Planning, Road Construction, Use of labour intensive methods for construction, HIGHWAY ROADS AND BRIDGES, and labour intensive construction
Enormous progress has been made on causal inference and modeling in areas outside of economics. We now have a full semantics for causality in a number of empirically relevant situations. This semantics is provided by causal graphs and... more
Enormous progress has been made on causal inference and modeling in areas outside of economics. We now have a full semantics for causality in a number of empirically relevant situations. This semantics is provided by causal graphs and allows provable precise formulation of causal relations and testable deductions from them. The semantics also allows provable rules for sufficient and biasing covariate adjustment and algorithms for deducing causal structure from data. I outline these developments, show how they describe three basic kinds of causal inference situations that standard multiple regression practice in econometrics frequently gets wrong, and show how these errors can be remedied. I also show that instrumental variables, despite claims to the contrary, do not solve these potential errors and are subject to the same morals. I argue both from the logic of elemental causal situations and from simulated data with nice statistical properties and known causal models. I apply these general points to a reanalysis of the Sachs and Warner model and data on resource abundance and growth. I finish with open potentially fruitful questions.
Interdisciplinary study of addiction is facilitated by relative unification of the concept. What should be sought is not formal unification through literal analytic definition, which would undermine practical flexibility within... more
Interdisciplinary study of addiction is facilitated by relative unification of the concept. What should be sought is not formal unification through literal analytic definition, which would undermine practical flexibility within disciplines and intervention practices. However, leading controversies around whether addiction should be conceived as a 'disease', and over whether addiction is 'chosen' behavior, are made more difficult to resolve by failure to apply philosophical reflection on these general concepts. Such reflection should be sensitive to two kinds of constraint: coherence in description of empirical, including neuroscientific, observation, and utility in framing normative goals in treatment and policy design. Following review of various interpretations of addiction, disease, and choice across contributing disciplines, it is concluded that addiction is most plausibly viewed as a disease at the scale of public health research and policy, but not personal (e.g. clinical) management and intervention. Addicts must make choices to recover, and in that respect addiction is a 'disorder of choice'. However, it is concluded that the most relevant sense of 'disorder' arises at the social rather than the personal scale.
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Economic models of addiction typically posit intertemporal dependencies in the consumption of addictive goods, although the models differ regarding the structure of the dependencies. Addictions are often associated with multiple attempts... more
Economic models of addiction typically posit intertemporal dependencies in the consumption of addictive goods, although the models differ regarding the structure of the dependencies. Addictions are often associated with multiple attempts to quit, usually successfully for short periods of time, accompanied by eventual relapse. This standard life course of addiction illustrates the role that attitudes to risk over time may play in explaining addictive behaviour. While researchers have paid attention to the atemporal risk attitudes of addicts, no prior research has investigated the intertemporal risk attitudes of addicts. Yet measures of risk attitudes at a point in time logically need have no relation at all with risk attitudes over time. Focusing on smoking behaviour, we undertake a natural first step of comparing experimentally elicited intertemporal risk preferences, along with atemporal risk preferences and time preferences, among cohorts of people who have not been addicted, people who are current addicts, and people who are former addicts. From the resulting data we estimate a structural model of intertemporal risk preferences jointly with a rank-dependent utility model of atemporal risk and a quasi-hyperbolic model of time preferences. The intertemporal risk preferences of our sample exhibit significant heterogeneity and, contrary to the assumption employed by standard economic models of addiction, smokers do not exhibit intertemporal risk seeking behaviour. Instead, our sample is characterised by high levels of intertemporal risk aversion which varies by smoking intensity and smoking severity in men, but not in women. Our results highlight the role that intertemporal risk attitudes, together with atemporal risk attitudes and discounting behaviour, play in the aetiology of addiction.
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I investigate the extent to which there might be, now or in the future, non-human animals that partake in the kind of fully human-style consciousness (FHSC) that has been taken by many philosophers to be the basis of normative personhood.... more
I investigate the extent to which there might be, now or in the future, non-human animals that partake in the kind of fully human-style consciousness (FHSC) that has been taken by many philosophers to be the basis of normative personhood. I first sketch a conceptual framework for considering the question, based on a range of philosophical literature on relationships between consciousness, language and personhood. I then review the standard basis for largely a priori skepticism about the possibility that any non-human animal could experience FHSC and be a person to any extent, and indicate empirically motivated grounds for rejecting such skepticism, at least with respect to a select group of hypersocial candidate species with communication systems we do not currently know are not languages: corvids, parrots, elephants, and toothed whales. Relevant facts about elephants are reviewed in some detail, as a mini case study. While it is suggested that elephants might partake in the sort of consciousness characteristic of personhood to some extent, grounds are given for expecting that this extent is sharply limited by comparison with normal humans. As these grounds are mainly aspects of elephants’ external niche, however, rather than known limitations in their inboard cognitive or representational capacities, the surprising conclusion emerges that elephants might acquire FHSC, and thereby become persons, if they can be brought into conversation with humans, a possibility opened by considerations canvassed in the paper.
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Theoretical work on stochastic choice mainly focuses on the sources of choice ran-domness, and less on its economic consequences. We attempt to close this gap by developing a method of extracting information about the monetary costs of... more
Theoretical work on stochastic choice mainly focuses on the sources of choice ran-domness, and less on its economic consequences. We attempt to close this gap by developing a method of extracting information about the monetary costs of noise from structural estimates of preferences and choice randomness. Our method is based on allowing a degree of noise in choices in order to rationalize them by a given structural model. To illustrate the approach, we consider risky binary choices made by a sample of the general Danish population in an artefactual field experiment. The estimated welfare costs are small in terms of everyday economic activity, but they are considerable in terms of the actual stakes of the choice environment. Higher welfare costs are associated with higher age, lower education, and lower income., mla.eco@cbs.dk and don.ross@uct.ac.za. We are grateful to the Danish Social Science Research Council (Project #12-130950) for financial support.
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Productive expenditure on road infrastructure contributes to economic growth as a factor of production, complement to other factors of production, stimulus to factor accumulation, stimulus to aggregate demand, and industrial policy tool.... more
Productive expenditure on road infrastructure contributes to economic growth as a factor of production, complement to other factors of production, stimulus to factor accumulation, stimulus to aggregate demand, and industrial policy tool. On the other hand, unproductive or insufficient investment in road infrastructure may crowd out private sector investment, increase operational costs, reduce the lifespan of private sector capital, necessitate private capital adjustment costs, decrease labour productivity, and impinge on human development. This paper uses economic growth theory to explain the roles of road infrastructure investment in the growth process, with reference made to studies that confirm the relevance, direction, and magnitude of these effects in South Africa. Details of national development policies, the geographic structure of the South African economy, the state of the country's rail sector, and freight, personal travel, proximity to basic services, rural-urban migration, and household agriculture statistics are also incorporated in the discussion to emphasise the importance of sound road investment policy in South Africa.
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Theoretical work on stochastic choice mainly focuses on the sources of choice ran-domness, and less on its economic consequences. We attempt to close this gap by developing a method of extracting information about the monetary costs of... more
Theoretical work on stochastic choice mainly focuses on the sources of choice ran-domness, and less on its economic consequences. We attempt to close this gap by developing a method of extracting information about the monetary costs of noise from structural estimates of preferences and choice randomness. Our method is based on allowing a degree of noise in choices in order to rationalize them by a given structural model. To illustrate the approach, we consider risky binary choices made by a sample of the general Danish population in an artefactual field experiment. The estimated welfare costs are small in terms of everyday economic activity, but they are considerable in terms of the actual stakes of the choice environment. Higher welfare costs are associated with higher age, lower education, and lower income., mla.eco@cbs.dk and don.ross@uct.ac.za. We are grateful to the Danish Social Science Research Council (Project #12-130950) for financial support.
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Many road authorities, including those in South Africa, are unable to reliably identify and prioritise the maintenance of two essential road categories: roads that are required to satisfy citizens' constitutional right to access basic... more
Many road authorities, including those in South Africa, are unable to reliably identify and prioritise the maintenance of two essential road categories: roads that are required to satisfy citizens' constitutional right to access basic services; and roads that maximise potential economic growth. This issue stems from reliance on the current set of classification systems, which lack the requisite detail to determine a road's significance in connecting communities to basic service facilities, the volume and type of economic activity it supports, and overlaps between these functions. This paper therefore presents an economics-based road classification system customised for the South African road network. The new system disaggregates roads into four classes: Basic Access Roads; Strategic Roads; Tactical Roads; and Surplus Roads. The characteristics and maintenance priority level of each road class are addressed, along with an identification methodology that authorities can use to include this information within their asset management systems to improve expenditure and investment outcomes.
Research Interests:
Productive expenditure on road infrastructure contributes to economic growth as a factor of production, complement to other factors of production, stimulus to factor accumulation, stimulus to aggregate demand, and industrial policy tool.... more
Productive expenditure on road infrastructure contributes to economic growth as a factor of production, complement to other factors of production, stimulus to factor accumulation, stimulus to aggregate demand, and industrial policy tool. On the other hand, unproductive or insufficient investment in road infrastructure may crowd out private sector investment, increase operational costs, reduce the lifespan of private sector capital, necessitate private capital adjustment costs, decrease labour productivity, and impinge on human development. This paper uses economic growth theory to explain the roles of road infrastructure investment in the growth process, with reference made to studies that confirm the relevance, direction, and magnitude of these effects in South Africa. Details of national development policies, the geographic structure of the South African economy, the state of the country's rail sector, and freight, personal travel, proximity to basic services, rural-urban migration, and household agriculture statistics are also incorporated in the discussion to emphasise the importance of sound road investment policy in South Africa.
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The South African Institution of Civil Engineering's 2017 Infrastructure Report Card scored national roads a " B " (fit for the future), paved metropolitan roads a " C " (satisfactory for now), paved provincial and other municipal roads a... more
The South African Institution of Civil Engineering's 2017 Infrastructure Report Card scored national roads a " B " (fit for the future), paved metropolitan roads a " C " (satisfactory for now), paved provincial and other municipal roads a " D " (at risk of failure), and gravel roads an " E " (unfit for purpose). Commonly cited estimates of the magnitude of these road maintenance backlogs, including that used in the 2018 Draft Roads Policy for South Africa, indicate that they amounted to R197 billion in 2014. This paper interrogates the accuracy of this estimate through an evaluation of the extent to which the national, provincial, and municipal road authorities are singularly and cumulatively affected by road maintenance backlogs as at 2017. The cost modelling demonstrates that the rehabilitation costs are potentially as high as R128.6 billion for the paved road network and R281.2 billion for the gravel road network. Additional cost estimates are generated for gravel to surface upgrades and of the contingent liability posed by the unproclaimed road network. Addressed in the discussion of these results are the implications for road investment policy, budget planning, and attempts to develop an integrated funding model.
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Productive expenditure on road infrastructure contributes to economic growth as a factor of production, complement to other factors of production, stimulus to factor accumulation, stimulus to aggregate demand, and industrial policy tool.... more
Productive expenditure on road infrastructure contributes to economic growth as a factor of production, complement to other factors of production, stimulus to factor accumulation, stimulus to aggregate demand, and industrial policy tool. On the other hand, unproductive or insufficient investment in road infrastructure may crowd out private sector investment, increase operational costs, reduce the lifespan of private sector capital, necessitate private capital adjustment costs, decrease labour productivity, and impinge on human development. This paper uses economic growth theory to explain the roles of road infrastructure investment in the growth process, with reference made to studies that confirm the relevance, direction, and magnitude of these effects in South Africa. Details of national development policies, the geographic structure of the South African economy, the state of the country's rail sector, and freight, personal travel, proximity to basic services, rural-urban migration, and household agriculture statistics are also incorporated in the discussion to emphasise the importance of sound road investment policy in South Africa.
Research Interests:
Many road authorities, including those in South Africa, are unable to reliably identify and prioritise the maintenance of two essential road categories: roads that are required to satisfy citizens' constitutional right to access basic... more
Many road authorities, including those in South Africa, are unable to reliably identify and prioritise the maintenance of two essential road categories: roads that are required to satisfy citizens' constitutional right to access basic services; and roads that maximise potential economic growth. This issue stems from reliance on the current set of classification systems, which lack the requisite detail to determine a road's significance in connecting communities to basic service facilities, the volume and type of economic activity it supports, and overlaps between these functions. This paper therefore presents an economics-based road classification system customised for the South African road network. The new system disaggregates roads into four classes: Basic Access Roads; Strategic Roads; Tactical Roads; and Surplus Roads. The characteristics and maintenance priority level of each road class are addressed, along with an identification methodology that authorities can use to include this information within their asset management systems to improve expenditure and investment outcomes.
Research Interests:
Productive expenditure on road infrastructure contributes to economic growth as a factor of production, complement to other factors of production, stimulus to factor accumulation, stimulus to aggregate demand, and industrial policy tool.... more
Productive expenditure on road infrastructure contributes to economic growth as a factor of production, complement to other factors of production, stimulus to factor accumulation, stimulus to aggregate demand, and industrial policy tool. On the other hand, unproductive or insufficient investment in road infrastructure may crowd out private sector investment, increase operational costs, reduce the lifespan of private sector capital, necessitate private capital adjustment costs, decrease labour productivity, and impinge on human development. This paper uses economic growth theory to explain the roles of road infrastructure investment in the growth process, with reference made to studies that confirm the relevance, direction, and magnitude of these effects in South Africa. Details of national development policies, the geographic structure of the South African economy, the state of the country's rail sector, and freight, personal travel, proximity to basic services, rural-urban migration, and household agriculture statistics are also incorporated in the discussion to emphasise the importance of sound road investment policy in South Africa.
Research Interests:
Many road authorities, including those in South Africa, are unable to reliably identify and prioritise the maintenance of two essential road categories: roads that are required to satisfy citizens' constitutional right to access basic... more
Many road authorities, including those in South Africa, are unable to reliably identify and prioritise the maintenance of two essential road categories: roads that are required to satisfy citizens' constitutional right to access basic services; and roads that maximise potential economic growth. This issue stems from reliance on the current set of classification systems, which lack the requisite detail to determine a road's significance in connecting communities to basic service facilities, the volume and type of economic activity it supports, and overlaps between these functions. This paper therefore presents an economics-based road classification system customised for the South African road network. The new system disaggregates roads into four classes: Basic Access Roads; Strategic Roads; Tactical Roads; and Surplus Roads. The characteristics and maintenance priority level of each road class are addressed, along with an identification methodology that authorities can use to include this information within their asset management systems to improve expenditure and investment outcomes.
Research Interests:
South Africa's provincial and municipal road authorities are responsible for the maintenance of an extensive low-volume gravel road network. Given the significant deterioration in the quality of this network, it is questionable whether... more
South Africa's provincial and municipal road authorities are responsible for the maintenance of an extensive low-volume gravel road network. Given the significant deterioration in the quality of this network, it is questionable whether authorities can and should accommodate the relative maintenance intensity of gravel roads within the resource constraints they face. The high incidence of gravel roads was largely driven by decentralized provision and relatively cheap construction costs compared to sealed alternatives, but consideration should extend to the resources that are required for the routine maintenance and periodic re-gravelling necessary to uphold their design life. Planning generally was not extended over the life-cycle of low-volume roads, so shocks have been encountered with respect to haulage distances for gravel, erosion of longitudinal road gradients, climate change, and increases in traffic volumes. We therefore estimate and stress test the whole-life economic asset cost of a gravel road under South African conditions, and compare these results against a variety of sealed alternatives to determine the points at which gravel is no longer the most cost-effective surface option for low-volume roads. Each alternative surface includes a specification, schedule of inputs, and standard maintenance programme. The stress tests focus on variations in input prices, the potential labour intensity of road works, the cost of labour, road user costs, and the sensitivity of maintenance schedules and costs to environmental factors. INTRODUCTION This paper presents a South African specific life cycle cost analysis (LCCA) of alternative unsealed and sealed surfaces for low-volume roads, defined here as carrying 75 to 220 vehicles per day, to promote their cost-effective provision by the 278 municipal and 9 provincial road authorities. The LCCA explores the trade-offs between the investment, maintenance, rehabilitation, and road user costs of gravel, sand seal, slurry seal, single chip seal, cape seal, and ultra-thin reinforced concrete pavement (UTRCP) roads. Stress tests are performed according to local variations in the proximity of natural resources to roads, the price inflation of inputs, climate, topography, the cost of labour, and road user costs to ensure this study is robust and has country-wide application. The results support a policy to seal low-volume gravel roads at a rate possible within budget limitations.
Research Interests:
The paper expands on the self-governance model of personhood (SGP), an account based in cognitive science on how autonomous persons regulate aspects of their brains and behaviour. This model has arisen in the work of a number of authors... more
The paper expands on the self-governance model of personhood (SGP), an account based in cognitive science on how autonomous persons regulate aspects of their brains and behaviour. This model has arisen in the work of a number of authors over the past twenty years, but has recently been consolidated and memetically named by Ismarl (2016). According to the SPG, persons are the governors of human bodies and of their extended psychological emanations. The person does not manage, or try to manage, everything that goes on in the body, or most of the fine-grained details of every action that a body performs intentionally. The person instead regulates the body's actions so as to maintain coherence among them and keep them aligned with, or at least not subversive of, meaningful narratives told by the person to herself and, in fragments and allusions, to others. The paper explores the boundary conditions of the SGP by considering two varieties of what emerge under the framework as cases of diminished personhood: gambling addicts in extreme states of dependency, and elephants under the conjecture that their sophisticated communication supports some representation their social norms as norms. The reflections along the boundary lead to emphasis on the dynamic nature of the SGP, and on the relatively 'light' load of inboard resources required for basic personhood, provided that adequate external cognitive scaffolding (as per Clark 1997) is available. 1. The self-governance model of personhood A natural philosophical device for exposing fresh contours in a concept of interest is to examine cases near its boundaries. This is the methodology that leads me to put elephants and addicts together in reflective montage. The concept of interest is that of personhood. The view of personhood that I will presuppose rather than defend is one I have sketched in previous work (Ross
Research Interests:
We study Danish adult gambling behavior with an emphasis on discovering patterns relevant to public health forecasting and economic welfare assessment of policy. Methodological innovations include measurement of formative in addition to... more
We study Danish adult gambling behavior with an emphasis on discovering patterns relevant to public health forecasting and economic welfare assessment of policy. Methodological innovations include measurement of formative in addition to reflective constructs, estimation of prospective risk for developing gambling disorder rather than risk of being falsely negatively diagnosed, analysis with attention to sample weights and correction for sample selection bias, estimation of the impact of trigger questions on prevalence estimates and sample characteristics, and distinguishing between total and marginal effects of risk-indicating factors. The most significant novelty in our design is that nobody was excluded on the basis of their response to a 'trigger' or 'gateway' question about previous gambling history. Our sample consists of 8,405 adult Danes. We administered the Focal Adult Gambling Screen to all subjects and estimate prospective risk for Disordered Gambling. We find that 87.6% of the population is indicated for No Detectable Risk, 5.4% is indicated for Early Risk, 1.7% is indicated for Intermediate Risk, 2.6% is indicated for Advanced Risk, and 2.6% is indicated for Disordered Gambling. Correcting for sample weights and controlling for sample selection has a significant effect on prevalence rates. Although these estimates of the 'at risk' fraction of the population are significantly higher than conventionally reported, we infer a significant decrease in overall prevalence rates of detectable risk with these corrections, since gambling behavior is positively correlated with the decision to participate in gambling surveys. We also find that imposing a threshold gambling history leads to underestimation of the prevalence of gambling problems. †. We are grateful to the Danish Social Science Research Council (Project #12-130950) for financial support.
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Gambling behavior is pervasive, apparently growing, and of methodological and substantive interest to economists. We examine the manner in which the population prevalence of disordered gambling has been estimated. General population... more
Gambling behavior is pervasive, apparently growing, and of methodological and substantive interest to economists. We examine the manner in which the population prevalence of disordered gambling has been estimated. General population surveys have deepened our knowledge of the population prevalence of gambling disorders, as well as the manner in which gambling disorder is associated with other mental health problems. However, we identify a fundamental bias in the manner in which these surveys have been used to draw inferences about the general population prevalence of gambling problems, due to a behavioral response to seemingly innocuous " trigger, " " gateway " or " diagnostic stem " questions in the design of surveys. Formal modeling of the latent sample selection behavior generated by these trigger questions leads to dramatically different inferences about population prevalence and comorbidities with other psychiatric disorders. The population prevalence of problem or pathological gambling in the United States is inferred to be 7.7% rather than 1.3% when this behavioral response is ignored. Comorbidities are inferred to be much smaller than the received wisdom, particularly when considering the marginal association with other mental health problems rather than the total association. The issues identified here apply, in principle, to every psychiatric disorder covered by these surveys, and not just gambling disorder. We discuss ways in which these behavioral biases can be mitigated in future surveys. †
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Evidence of risk aversion in laboratory settings over small stakes leads to a priori implausible levels of risk aversion over large stakes under certain assumptions. One core assumption in standard statements of this calibration puzzle is... more
Evidence of risk aversion in laboratory settings over small stakes leads to a priori implausible levels of risk aversion over large stakes under certain assumptions. One core assumption in standard statements of this calibration puzzle is that individuals define utility over terminal wealth, and that terminal wealth is defined as the sum of extra-lab wealth and any wealth accumulated in the lab. This assumption is often used in Expected Utility Theory, as well as popular alternatives such as Rank-Dependent Utility theory. Another core assumption is that the small-stakes risk aversion is observed over all levels of wealth, or over a " sufficiently large " range of wealth. Although this second assumption is often viewed as self-evident from the vast experimental literature showing risk aversion over laboratory stakes, it actually requires that lab wealth be varied for a given subject as one takes the " risk aversion temperature " of the subject. We consider evidence from a simple design that tests this assumption. We find that the assumption is strikingly rejected for a large sample of subjects from a population of college students. However, we find that the assumption is not rejected for a large sample of subjects from the adult population of Denmark. We conclude that the implausible predictions that flow from these assumptions do not apply to one specialized population widely used to study economic behavior in experiments, but do apply to a broader population that is arguably of greater interest. † and swarthout@gsu.edu. We are grateful to the Danish Social Science Research Council (Project #12-130950) for financial support, and to Jim Cox for valuable comments and discussion.
Research Interests:
We consider motivations for acknowledging that people participate in multiple levels of economic agency. One of these is characterized in terms of subjective utility to the individual; another, frequently observed, level is characterized... more
We consider motivations for acknowledging that people participate in multiple levels of economic agency. One of these is characterized in terms of subjective utility to the individual; another, frequently observed, level is characterized in terms of utility to social groups with which people (temporarily) identify. Following Bacharach (2006), we describe such groups as 'teams'. We review Bacharach's theory of such identification in his account of 'team reasoning'. While this conceptualization is useful, it applies only to processes supported by deliberation. As this is only one of a range of causal mechanisms underlying behaviour by humans and other strategic agents, a more general account is desirable. We then argue that Stirling's (2012) account of 'conditional games' achieves the desired generalization.