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December 16, 2006
I Call "Market Top " on "You"
Time just named "you" its Person of the Year for 2006. Yes, it's an incredible cop-out in a year when wasted multitudes died in Iraq, in a year containing newsmakers like Iran's President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, Korea's Jim Jong-Il, and even Nancy Pelosi. And from a financial perspective this has to mark some sort of near-term market top for user-generated content, blogs, social networks, me-media, etc.
Aha. The front cover theory. Works like a dime every time.
personal pronoun voodoo (you, my, wii, i)
How about a poll for readers of p.k.com?
1. When was the last time YOU picked up a copy of Time Magazine and read ANY of it?
'Cause for me, it certainly wasn't in this century...
Hi Paul,
I beg to disagree as I think we have yet to see the full power of user-generated content. Given this thinking, I am forced to conclude that may still be there are still some room to grow in the "market" side of things.
I guess except dictatorial countries, the world will be affected by more effective and efficiently user generated media. Just my 2 cents.
Kempton
Except for that from a few talented people, the vast majority of user generated media is unwatchable crap. People will soon tire of it, if they haven't already.
(Remember the independent film revolution of the 60s and 70s? Truth is, most of the stuff produced was horrible drek. It did, however, provide a good training ground for the few truly talented film makers who have since "sold out" and entertained us all. The exact same thing is happening here, only the pool is larger since the cost of entry is much lower.)
Not sure what 'top' means or whether the concept is relevant. Nasdaq was at 5000 in year 2000. That was the top for many Internet stocks. But the internet kept going by all measures since 2000. Likewise, user-generated content, crap or otherwise, will keep going whether the valuation of YouTube-like companies comes crashing down or not.
While channel-surfing I caught part of a CNN segment on "the making of the Time POTY" and they were showing a mock-up POTY cover picturing "The YouTube Guys." I can see how that could progress to "You" and how the YouTube deal is a high water mark for speculation in user-generated content, at least for the forseeable future.
A broader market top? Maybe that too with many predicting a slow down while the Dow Industrials hit new unadjusted highs. But are these connected? I'm trying hard to see how. I can imagine an impending correction--not a long standing top...
Yuan-based ADR's are interesting. :)