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Forecasting Interest Rates
Politics and the Fed

Last week, I explained why the Federal Reserve (Fed) is unlikely to meet its 2% inflation target in 2024, and I haven’t changed my mind. I referred to an article that said, “Fed Chair Jerome Powell made it clear Tuesday he thinks the Fed will need more than a quarter’s worth of data to really make a judgment on whether inflation is steadily falling towards 2%.”

DeLong’s Slouching Towards Utopia

The Berkeley economist Brad DeLong hates Friedrich HayekYYYYYYthat much is clear from his oversized 536-page tome, Slouching Towards Utopia: An Economic History of the Twentieth Century, 25 years in the making. And that’s also about the level of scholarship we can expect. The key ingredients in this politically slanted misinterpretation of the “long” century, 1870 to 2010, are taunts, insults, and extreme value judgments. In the first five pages, no less, Hayek is both demoted to a “mere” moral philosopher and explicitly called an “extraordinary idiot”YYYYYYonly to be resurrected as “a genius” towards the end of DeLong’s excruciating narrative. It’s anybody’s guess why.

Can the U.S. Tax Its Way to Fiscal Health?

The U.S. national debt has risen to over $34.52 trillion. That’s $3.06 trillion higher than it was a year earlier. The U.S. government’s total outstanding public debt has increased at an average of $8.36 billion per day since May 16, 2023.

The Fed Will Not Meet Its Inflation Target in 2024

According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the year-over-year inflation rate in April 2024 was 3.4%, which has caused some to be optimistic that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will lower interest rates later this year. I won’t guess what the Fed might do, but I’m pretty confident the Fed will not achieve its 2% inflation target in 2024.

Proposed California Law to Protect Neurorights?

The California Senate is in the early stages of deliberating Senate Bill 1223, introduced by Josh Becker (D-District 13). The bill aims to classify “neural data” as “sensitive information” under the California Consumer Privacy Act (CCPA). It is one of the first legislative attempts to codify “neurorights” in the United States and among the first in the world.

Is Europe Headed Towards the Extreme Right?

While it is certain that the far right (by which I mean the nationalist, protectionist, Eurosceptic right) will make headway in the elections to the Strasbourg-based European parliament that will take place in early June in 27 countries, it is far less likely that they will exercise the influence that the media and some of their rivals thinkYYYYYYor claim they believe.

California High-Speed Rail Celebrates Completing Bridge to Nowhere

If critics wanted proof California’s bullet train is a zombie project, they got it straight from California’s High-Speed Rail’s publicity department last week.

Canadian Bill C-63 Creates a Kangaroo Court

In Canada, Big Brother wants control of how citizens think and speak. Tragically, this Orwellian nightmare is becoming a reality. The government’s trilogy of censorship billsYYYYYYBill C-11 empowered the Canadian Radio-television and Telecommunications Commission to tell us what to watch, Bill C-18 extorted millions from big tech to help fund legacy media, and the recently introduced On-Line Harms Act Bill C-63 will impose authoritarian censorship laws the likes of which are found in places like Iran or China.

The Ratchet Effect on the Fed’s Balance Sheet

Pay no attention to the balance sheet behind the curtain.

The FDA Is Not a Referee

Last October, the Food and Drug Administration began surveying ground cinnamon products. By November, the agency identified elevated levels of lead and chromium in applesauce pouches across several producers. Suspecting the worst, the FDA mandated recalls and began investigating whether lead was intentionally added to these products. 

  • Catalyst
  • Beyond Homeless
  • MyGovCost.org
  • FDAReview.org
  • OnPower.org
  • elindependent.org