Eurizon SLJ Capital

This week, Neil Staines asks, 'Can growth disappointment unlock volatility?' Next week brings important economic data from the #US, #Australia, #Switzerland, and #China, along with a pivotal #ECB meeting on Thursday, against the backdrop of elections in South Africa, India and Mexico. Key sections include: #Growth squared? Emerging #Elections Show me the Monetary The Long & Short of it... #macroeconomics #investing #inflation #newsletter #podcast

In this edition of "The Long & Short," Neil Staines explores how the interplay between inflation and political events influences monetary policy decisions in the UK and the US. With the UK's General Election and recent economic data shaping the Bank of England's and Federal Reserve's strategies, we delve into the implications for future rate cuts and broader economic stability. The upcoming #UKGeneralElection complicates the Bank of England's rate-cutting plans, likely delaying actions until post-August. April's CPI shows progress, with headline #inflation at 2.3% and core at 3.9%, but current policies are still restrictive amidst low #growth. In the US, the Fed's May 1st minutes reveal mixed views on inflation and growth, with 'various' members open to tightening if necessary. #macroeconomics #ukpolitics #monetarypolicy

Neil Staines explores the Bank of England's revised inflation projections, US inflation, and rate cut expectations on both sides of the pond in our latest LinkedIn newsletter. Key sections include: Dissenters as Leading Indicators? Not ruled out, nor a fait accompli Inflated Expectations The Long & short of it #Inflation #MonetaryPolicy #BankOfEngland #EconomicAnalysis #FinancialMarkets #LinkedInNewsletter #macroeconomics #investing

Inflation and Policy Rates: One Direction? Neil Staines delves into recent developments around global monetary policy, with a spotlight on the US and the UK. Sections include: The Lady is for turning The Case for Dissent June Cut: N’est Pas Fait Accompli? The Long and Short of it PLUS - bonus material at the end of this week's newsletter: 'The Long & Short of the Week Ahead' Podcast. #Economics #MonetaryPolicy #Inflation #BankOfEngland #FederalReserve #GlobalEconomy #TheLongAndShort

In this episode https://lnkd.in/eGaFCaig of 'The Long and Short of the Week Ahead' recorded for professional investors by Eurizon SLJ Capital, Matt Jones and Neil Staines discuss the recent market focus on US data and the Federal Reserve's policy trajectory, and its implications for global economic policies in the coming week. They delve into the Fed's less hawkish than anticipated stance amid inflation concerns and its impact on market expectations, including equity and bond markets. The discussion extends to upcoming central bank meetings, particularly the Reserve Bank of Australia, and shifts in policy focus in response to economic data. They also explore the European Central Bank's position on rate cuts beyond June, influenced by the Fed's narrative and incoming economic data from Europe, including investor confidence and German economic indicators. The episode concludes with insights into the UK's economic outlook concerning the Bank of England's anticipated dovish bias and its implications for UK markets and mortgage holders. #Macroeconomics #FederalReserve #EconomicGrowth #Inflation #MonetaryPolicy #LaborMarket #FinancialMarkets

In the first issue of our newsletter, "Long & Short", Neil Staines explores the current economic scenario characterized by the Fed's retention of a dovish stance despite expectations of a hawkish shift. We delve into the U.S.'s revised growth and employment projections, highlighting how recent increases in productivity and immigration have altered the economic landscape. We discuss the ongoing complex interplay between #inflation, #growth rates, and #monetarypolicy, and how extrapolated expectations of US outperformance have created not so much a narrow path, but a boulevard of (potentially) broken dreams! #Macroeconomics #FederalReserve #EconomicGrowth #LaborMarket #FinancialMarkets

In this episode of 'The Long and Short of the Week Ahead' https://lnkd.in/e2AZFQtz by Eurizon SLJ Capital, Matt Jones and Neil Staines (recorded on Friday, 26th April 2024) discuss the anticipated #macroeconomic themes for professional investors, focusing on market volatilities and policy rates influenced by recent global #PMI data, indicating significant #economic activities across countries like #India, #UK, #Japan, #Australia, and the #Eurozone. They highlight key economic data releases expected in the upcoming week from #Germany, #China, #Japan, #Norway, and #Switzerland, emphasizing their potential impact on global markets. The discussion also covers expectations from the U.S. economic data, including #ISM #manufacturing and services data, #ADP, #JOLTS, and Non-Farm Payroll, and how these might influence the Federal Reserve's monetary policy, especially concerning interest rates and quantitative tightening. 

In this episode https://lnkd.in/ei_7HBFq of 'The Long and Short of the Week Ahead,' Matt Jones and Neil Staines from Eurizon SLJ Capital delve into recent #geopolitical events, earning season volatility, and the intersection of #growth, #inflation, and interest rates. They discuss the market's reaction to these factors, the #IMF's upgraded global growth forecasts, and look ahead to next week's key economic indicators, including global PMIs, German IFO data, consumer confidence in the UK and France, and potential interventions by the Bank of Japan. The episode also covers major points for the US, including Q1 GDP data, the PCE inflation measure, and upcoming earnings releases from major tech companies. #macroeconomics #investing #podcast #fixedincome

In this episode https://lnkd.in/eAyV-Zsp of 'The Long and Short of the Week Ahead,' Eurizon SLJ Capital offers a comprehensive outlook on the week ahead for professional investors, focusing on key #macroeconomic themes. Matt Jones, Head of Distribution, and Neil Staines, Senior Portfolio Manager, discuss various pivotal economic indicators and meetings poised to impact global markets, with a particular emphasis on the UK's financial landscape. They highlight the UK's employment report, #CPI print, retail sales data, and the implications of Governor Bailey's upcoming speeches on the trajectory of UK interest rates. The dialogue also explores the U.S. #economic outlook, particularly in response to recent CPI data and its potential effects on the Federal Reserve's mandate, retail sales, and Q1 earnings reports. Additionally, the episode covers significant economic developments in #China and #Germany, alongside an anticipation of the updated #IMF World Economic Outlook. #wealthmanagement #fixedincome #inflation #growth

In this episode https://lnkd.in/eEJTp7vz of 'The Long and Short of the Week Ahead,' Eurizon SLJ Capital discusses the upcoming macroeconomic themes and central bank policies for professional investors. Host Matt Jones and Senior Portfolio Manager Neil Staines discuss recent economic data, including ISM manufacturing and services, and the implications for inflation and growth moderation. They discuss Federal Reserve Chair Powell's recent comments on the economic outlook and delve into upcoming data releases, such as Sentix data, UK GDP, and US sentiment. The discussion shifts to global central bank focuses, including the RBNZ, Bank of Canada, ECB, and Bank of England, and concludes with the Fed's awaited CPI print and its potential impact on future rate cuts. #macroeconomics #investing #fedpolicy #bankofengland #ecb #fixedincome