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000
FXUS64 KFWD 280710
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
210 AM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024

...New Long Term...

.SHORT TERM... /Issued 119 AM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024/
/Today through Monday Afternoon/

The main show of our overnight severe weather event is currently
on our doorstep. We`ve already seen some severe-caliber storms in
our northwest along the line, with isolated warm advection-
induced convection ahead of the line within western North Texas.
The line will continue to advance eastward through the night and
into this morning as its upper level support swings through the
Central Plains. The environment that the line is moving into is
capable of large hail, damaging winds, and tornadoes, as seen on
the 00Z FWD sounding. The "loaded gun" sounding featured an
uncapped atmosphere with deep layer shear 45-50 kts, MLCAPE of
around 3000 J/kg, and favorable low-level SRH. All this to say:
large hail, damaging winds, and QLCS tornadoes will all be
possible through the nighttime hours. The line will gradually
weaken and the severe threat will lessen for some as it moves into
East Texas, however, severe weather will still remain possible.

CAM guidance continues to highlight redevelopment near and east
of the I-35 corridor over the mid-afternoon hours on Sunday as a
shortwave disturbance rounds the base of the departing upper low.
These storms are progged to move east/northeast over the rest of
the day. Forecast soundings ahead of the storms show an
environment with steep lapse rates, sufficient deep layer shear,
and MLCAPE around 2000 J/kg (which is a bit more robust than
previous runs). Areas near and east of I-35 will be under another
severe threat, with storms primarily capable of large hail and
damaging winds, and a tertiary tornado threat. Make sure to stay
weather aware tomorrow, especially if attending outdoor
activities.

Through Sunday afternoon, expect average total rainfall amounts of 1-
3" with isolated amounts up to 4-5". These amounts, coupled with
multiple rounds of storms expected through tonight, will
exacerbate the flood threat. This will be especially true in flood
prone areas and in places that have already received heavy
rainfall. The Flood Watch remains in effect until 7 PM this
evening, but may need to be extended through the evening hours for
portions of eastern Central Texas.

All rain should come to an end by Monday morning, leaving the rest
of the short term period dry. Winds will be light through the
night, and with clearing skies and primed soils, there is
potential for mist/patchy fog and associated visibility
restrictions across much of the area through the morning hours on
Monday. Meanwhile, the base of an eastward- moving longwave
trough will begin to move overtop the region over Monday, but any
associated rain chances should stay to our south where the better
moisture resides. Have left unmentionable 10% PoPs in our
southernmost zones through Monday afternoon to account for the low
possibility of showers developing a bit further north.

Prater

&&

.LONG TERM... /NEW/
Update:
An active weather pattern will continue through much of the
upcoming workweek after a brief lull on Monday. Additional
opportunities for thunderstorms are forecast from Tuesday through
Friday, although the potential for organized severe weather on any
particular day is still uncertain at this time. Sufficient
shear/instability parameter space for at least an isolated strong
or severe storm will exist on a daily basis as we remain in an
open warm sector though Friday before the arrival of a cold front.
Aside from nominal adjustments to PoPs, minimal changes were
needed from the previous long term forecast.

-Stalley

Previous Discussion:
/Monday Onward/

A lull in the active weather will occur on Monday as the
multitude of upper level systems responsible for this weekend`s
thunderstorms shift to the east, and a weak ridge develops
overhead. Storm chances will return on Tuesday, however, as a
shortwave rounds the northern flank of the ridge. This will help
ignite thunderstorms along the dryline, which will be positioned
across the Big Country by Tuesday afternoon. These storms should
remain confined to the western half of the region, keeping the
severe weather potential largely west of the I-35 corridor. A
secondary batch of convection may also occur across the southeast
zones where an active seabreeze may infiltrate Tuesday afternoon.
The southeast storms will likely remain sub-severe, though a few
may produce gusty winds and heavy rain.

By Wednesday, a stronger shortwave will be dropping southeast
through the Rockies, weakening the ridge and generating another
round of dryline convection across the Big Country mid to late
afternoon. A warm and unstable environment along with 35+ knots
of effective shear will support more severe thunderstorm potential
as convection spreads east through the region Wednesday evening.
Storms will dissipate Wednesday night as instability wanes and a
capping inversion strengthens at the 850-700mb level.

A cold front will then approach on Thursday as the shortwave
trough traverses the Plains, providing another focus for showers
and storms along with the dryline Thursday afternoon and evening.
Widespread convection will be the result Thursday afternoon
through Thursday night, with activity pushing south of the region
along with the front on Friday.

A short reprieve in rain chances will occur Friday into Friday
evening before a shortwave embedded in the subtropical jet
generates another round of precipitation Friday night into next
Saturday. All of the forecast area should be in the cool sector
following the frontal passage, keeping any thunderstorms elevated
in nature and resulting from isentropic ascent. This should limit
the severe potential, but a strong storm or two would be capable
of producing hail. After a seasonably cool and damp (next)
weekend, a strengthening ridge aloft should lead to a warm-up and
a rain-free start to the following week.

30

&&

.AVIATION... /Issued 119 AM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024/
/06Z TAFs/

Scattered showers and storms have popped up across D10 over the
last couple hours and will continue to do so ahead of the main
line of storms. The line will directly impact D10 between 9-13Z,
and ACT 12-14Z. During this time, expect occasionally gusty
westerly winds and the potential for hail and spin-up tornadoes,
mainly closer to D10. Lingering precipitation is expected behind
the line until the mid-morning, before a lull in precipitation is
expected. Ceilings should lift somewhat, allowing low VFR to
return to all TAF sites mid-late afternoon. Redevelopment is
possible near and east of the airports mid afternoon and will move
east by the evening. Skies will more efficiently clear out
tonight with VFR prevailing.

There is the potential for lowered visibilities due to mist over
Monday morning, but have only included this potential at KDFW as
it is at the end of the period.

Prater

&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    80  65  85  67  84 /  80   5   5   5  20
Waco                78  66  84  64  83 /  90  10   5   5  20
Paris               76  61  81  61  81 /  90  40   5   5  20
Denton              80  60  83  64  83 /  60   0   5   0  10
McKinney            78  63  83  64  83 /  90   5   5   0  20
Dallas              80  65  85  65  85 /  90   5   5   5  20
Terrell             77  64  83  65  82 / 100  30   5   5  20
Corsicana           80  67  85  67  84 /  90  40   5   5  30
Temple              79  66  85  66  84 /  90  10   5   5  20
Mineral Wells       82  59  86  64  86 /  30   0   5   0  10

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch through this evening for TXZ091>095-100>107-117>123-
131>135-144>146-159.

Flood Watch from 7 AM CDT this morning through this evening for
TXZ147-148-160>162-174-175.

&&

$$