Free Expert Picks and Predictions

After averaging a combined 47.8 points, rebounds, and assists in the regular season, Jokic hasn’t missed a beat against the Lakers. He’s putting up 27.7 points, 15.6 rebounds, and 8.6 assists in the series (51.9 total). With an already-large usage rate during the regular season (28.8%), Jokic is basically not coming off the court in this series. He’s averaging over 39 minutes per game, and the Lakers don’t seem to have any answers for him. 

Davis scored 33 points on 14-23 shooting in Game 3, and he has now dropped 32+ points in every game this series. Davis averaged 24.7 ppg during the regular season, but that was in 35.5 mpg, and he typically sees an uptick in playing time during the playoffs. He averaged 26.8 ppg in 41.2 mpg when the Lakers were swept by the Nuggets in the Western Conference Finals last year, and he's logging 42.3 mpg this series. If the Nuggets were losing games, then coach Michael Malone might gameplan to slow down AD. However, with Denver up 3-0, he seems content with letting AD get his points.

Brad Marchand has been the best skater in the Boston series and leads all players with six points — twice as many points as the Leafs’ leading point-getters. He’s taking advantage of the Leafs’ awful penalty kill with five power-play points, has an assist in each game of the series, and is shooting at a higher rate with 11 shots on goal over his last two games. During the regular season (which is how he is priced), Marchand averaged 14.9 shot attempts/60 and 7.93 SOG/60, but so far in the playoffs, those numbers have ballooned to 20.11 and 7.59 respectively. Marchand is a different player in the playoffs but is priced at his regular-season production. The Leafs are anything but strong defensively and Marchand is getting to the net and getting a ton of chances. He has been one of the most mispriced players in the playoffs in terms of prop odds, in my opinion. 

Max Domi has registered seven assists in his last 10 games, with at least one apple in back-to-back postseason games. The rugged Leafs winger has been on a line with Matthews and Tyler Bertuzzi for nearly a month now, and the trio is coming off leading the NHL in goals per 60 in the regular season while sitting third in the league in expected goals per 60 at 5-on-5. Getting a piece of Domi's assists line at +200 odds is a tremendous value. Toronto is going to need this trio to spark something tonight if they want to go back to Boston with a split series, so let's back the Leafs winger to keep the assists streak going.

Not only are both goaltenders playing well, but both teams are doing a good job of preventing high-danger scoring chances in the playoffs. Among the 16 playoff teams, Dallas ranks fifth in expected goals against per 60 minutes (xGA/60) while Vegas ranks ninth in the same category. Meanwhile, both teams rank eighth or lower in expected goals for per 60 minutes (xGF/60). These two teams rely on depth and two-way play for success, so it is not surprising that there have been five or fewer total goals scored in 16 of the past 22 meetings. Both teams know that the Stars are in a must-win spot in this outing, so I expect a tight-checking affair with limited mistakes but conservative play in what essentially feels like an elimination game.

Rodon hasn’t been nearly as bad as the gap between his xERA and real ERA would show, and it’s just been walks that have really inflated his expected number. The Brewers are walking at a 9.5% clip this season, sure, but that number’s come down a bit over the last week and, on top of that, they’re struggling to do damage against lefties to this point with just a 78 wRC+ in the split.

I’m opting to play the first five innings instead of the full game total considering both bullpens have question marks. Philadelphia’s relief options have been a mess with a league-worst 5.78 ERA and a 1.53 WHIP, while San Diego’s bullpen is taxed after throwing 5 1/3 innings in each of the last two games. The first five innings total is a low one set at 4, but it’s that way for a reason. Cease has been among the best pitchers in the sport when he’s at the peak of his powers, and that appears to be the case through 29 2/3 innings of dominance in 2024. All the while, Suarez is on a heater the likes of which can’t be matched.

Miguel Sano has a great matchup against Minnesota Twins righty Chris Paddack. Sano has been on a three-game hitless spell, but there are reasons to suggest that he breaks out of it here. One of the most significant issues for Paddack is the hard-hit ball, and that’s great news for Sano. He’ll enter this game with one of the highest hard-hit rates in baseball. Of course, the sample size is small, but a hard-hit rate of just over 60% is nothing to sneeze at.