Men's NCAA Tournament 2024: B/R Expert Predictions for Sweet 16

The 2024 men's NCAA tournament has been much chalkier than last year's chaotic bracket that saw zero teams on the top three seed lines advance to the Final Four, but that just means we're in for some great basketball in the coming days.

With all four No. 1 and No. 2 seeds still standing, the nation's elite are all still in the mix for a national championship, and even the lone double-digit seed still in the field is an NC State team that upended Duke and North Carolina in the ACC tournament to secure an automatic bid.

We've all had a few days to catch our breath after the flurry of activity that is the tournament's opening weekend, but now it's time to shift our focus to the upcoming matchups in the Sweet 16.

Ahead we've provided a rundown of what each of those teams needs to do to win their next game, along with picks from our team of college basketball writers on how they expect Thursday and Friday to play out.

Let's set the scene for the Sweet 16.

Tipoff: Thursday, 8:39 p.m. ET (CBS)

North Carolina Wins If: The biggest key for the Tar Heels is going to be to play their game against an Alabama team that wants to turn this into a track meet. That's not to say North Carolina is not capable of playing uptempo, but the Heels need to exploit their size advantage. Double-double machine Armando Bacot has a favorable matchup inside, so he needs to be a focal point.

Alabama Wins If: The Crimson Tide rank No. 101 in KenPom's adjusted defensive efficiency, and allowing 96 points to No. 13 seed Charleston did little to inspire confidence in their ability on that end of the floor. Their best chance of winning is an offensive shootout, and that will require a big game from leading scorer Mark Sears. The 6'1" senior had 35 points against Purdue earlier this year, and he had 30 in that opening game against Charleston. He probably needs at least 30 in this one for Alabama to have a chance.

Predictions

David Kenyon: North Carolina

Kerry Miller: North Carolina

Joel Reuter: North Carolina

Tipoff: Thursday, 10:09 p.m. ET (TBS)

Iowa State Wins If: Defense is always at the forefront of the conversation for the Cyclones and for good reason, but they can't afford to lay an egg offensively against an Illinois team that will find a way to put points on the board. Keshon Gilbert (13.7 PPG), Milan Momcilovic (11.2 PPG) and Curtis Jones (10.6 PPG) are all capable of going off for 20-plus points, and at least one of them needs to have a big game in support of do-it-all point guard Tamin Lipsey.

Illinois Wins If: When easy baskets are not readily available, the Illini tend to fall in love with the three ball, and that's a less-than-ideal strategy for a team that shoots 35.3 percent (113th in NCAA) from deep. They shot a season-high 36 threes against Tennessee—the best defense they've faced this year—and lost that game by seven points. If they continue to attack the basket with Terrence Shannon Jr. and Marcus Domask and chase fast-break points, they'll have a real shot.

Predictions

David Kenyon: Iowa State

Kerry Miller: Iowa State

Joel Reuter: Illinois

Tipoff: Friday, 7:09 p.m. ET (CBS)

Marquette Wins If: The Golden Eagles are 6-5 this year in games where they attempt fewer than 12 free throws, so getting to the rim and drawing fouls needs to be part of their game plan. On defense, they can't allow deep post touches for DJ Burns Jr. and Mohamed Diarra since the Wolfpack have a clear size advantage. Offensively, the Golden Eagles are 15-0 when they have at least 18 assists as a team, so moving the ball is important.

NC State Wins If: The Wolfpack punched their ticket to the tournament with five wins in five days in the ACC tournament, and the 6'9", 260-pound Burns has been one of the biggest keys to their success, averaging 16.6 points on 64.9 percent shooting over his last seven games. Exploiting the advantage inside will be the key offensively, while senior point guard DJ Horne, who has 50 steals on the year, needs to make things uncomfortable for Tyler Kolek on the defensive end.

Predictions

David Kenyon: Marquette

Kerry Miller: NC State

Joel Reuter: Marquette

Tipoff: Friday, 7:39 p.m. ET (TBS)

Purdue Wins If: The blueprint to success for the Boilermakers is not complicated. Exploit the size advantage Zach Edey creates down low, knock down open threes when the defense collapses (40.9 3PT%, 1st in NCAA), and play strong perimeter defense (31.4% 3PT allowed, 46th in NCAA). They held the Bulldogs to 6-of-32 shooting from three when these two teams met at the Maui Invitational and Edey had 25 points and 14 rebounds in a 10-point victory.

Gonzaga Wins If: All seven of the Bulldogs losses this year have come in games where they shot under 30 percent from beyond the arc, including that dismal 18.8 percent showing against Purdue in Maui. They need the three ball to fall, plain and simple. All they can do on the defensive end is make sure no one besides Edey burns them with a big game, because he's going to get his 20 points and 10 rebounds.

Predictions

David Kenyon: Gonzaga

Kerry Miller: Purdue

Joel Reuter: Purdue

Tipoff: Friday, 9:39 p.m. ET (CBS)

Houston Wins If: The Cougars' success is built on relentless defensive pressure, and when they are at their best, every offensive possession for the opposition is a struggle. They also play at one of the slowest tempos of any team in college basketball, and comfort with that style of play is a big reason Texas A&M gave them a serious run and Iowa State beat them twice. The Blue Devils also like to play in the half court, so the Cougars need to be locked in and do what has gotten them this far.

Duke Wins If: The Blue Devils lost twice to rival North Carolina this year, but they managed to score 84 and 79 points against a Tar Heels team that ranks No. 6 in KenPom's adjusted defensive efficiency. Protecting the ball has been a key to success all year for Duke, with just 9.6 turnovers per game, and that will be extremely important against Houston's elite defensive guard play. The Blue Devils go seven deep, and only four of those guys are ball-handlers, so they need to stay out of foul trouble.

Predictions

David Kenyon: Duke

Kerry Miller: Houston

Joel Reuter: Duke

Tipoff: Friday, 10:09 p.m. ET (TBS)

Tennessee Wins If: The Volunteers shot 3-of-25 from three-point range against the Texas Longhorns on Saturday and still found a way to win, but they're going to need much better production from the perimeter. They shoot just 33.9 percent (186th in NCAA) from long range, but with Ryan Kalkbrenner (105 blocks, 2nd in NCAA) patrolling the paint for the Bluejays, they have to take advantage of the chances they get outside. Dalton Knecht also needs to avoid another dud after struggling against Mississippi State (4-of-17) and Texas (5-of-18) over his last three games.

Creighton Wins If: The Volunteers are 6-6 when they surrender more than 70 points, so the Bluejays need to come out firing offensively. Hunter Dickinson (17 points, 20 rebounds) and Zach Edey (23 points, 10 rebounds) both had big games against the Tennessee defense in wins by Kansas and Purdue, so Kalkbrenner needs to be a focal point. Control the boards, play inside-out on offense and limit open looks on the perimeter.

Predictions

David Kenyon: Creighton

Kerry Miller: Tennessee

Joel Reuter: Creighton

Tipoff: Thursday, 7:09 p.m. ET (CBS)

Arizona Wins If: The Wildcats are one of the best rebounding teams in the nation, and that is going to be a significant advantage for them against a Clemson team that was out-rebounded 13 different times this year. They need to fully exploit their advantage inside, which means Caleb Love plays his part rather than resorting to hero ball. The Wildcats are 4-5 this year when Love takes 19 or more shots.

Clemson Wins If: First and foremost, leading scorer PJ Hall needs to stay out of foul trouble. The 6'10" forward picked up two early fouls in the opening round against New Mexico, and he ended up fouling out in the second round against Baylor, which limited him to 39 total minutes in those two games. The Tigers don't do much on the offensive glass and don't force many turnovers, so they'll need an extremely efficient game offensively.

David Kenyon: Arizona

Kerry Miller: Arizona

Joel Reuter: Arizona

Tipoff: Thursday, 7:39 p.m. ET (TBS)

UConn Wins If: The Huskies are the best team in the country, with so many weapons that they can afford an off night from one of their stars and still blow out the opposition. Offensively, this is actually a more efficient team than the one that steamrolled its way to the national title a year ago, and Donovan Clingan can impact a game defensively like few other players in the country. All they need to do is stay the course.

San Diego State Wins If: Unlike last year's team, the Aztecs actually have a legitimate go-to scorer this year in Jaedon LeDee, and he is on a roll right now with 58 points against UAB and Yale. The 6'9" forward has scored at least 20 points in 12 of his last 13 games, and he has gone off for over 30 points four times this year. If he can find a fifth 30-point performance and the Aztecs can play their best defensive game of the season, they might have a chance.

Predictions

David Kenyon: UConn

Kerry Miller: UConn

Joel Reuter: UConn