Risk Planning and Management for the Panama Canal Expansion Program
Publication: Journal of Construction Engineering and Management
Volume 137, Issue 10
Abstract
In April 2006, the Panama Canal Authority formally proposed a major expansion of the canal to increase its capacity and make it more productive, safe, and efficient. This proposal included cost and schedule estimates for completing the expansion and was supported overwhelmingly by the citizens of Panama in an October 2006 public referendum. Given the conceptual level of design at the time of the proposal and the inherent uncertainty in a project of this magnitude at the early stages of engineering, a comprehensive risk analysis was performed to develop a contingency model for the total expansion program cost and schedule. This contingency model is based on a Monte Carlo simulation of the cost and schedule estimates, taking into account the most significant risks identified for the project. The resulting model provides contingency assessments for duration and total cost and sensitivity analysis of the risks; it also allows for multiple scenario planning and ultimately supports overall risk management. This paper presents a project case study that focuses on the contingency model development and the resulting risk management and contingency resolution processes.
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Acknowledgments
The writers would like to acknowledge the efforts of the many engineers from around the world who put significant time and effort into designing, estimating, and scheduling this historic project, particularly the efforts of the Panamanian engineers of the Panama Canal Authority. The writers would also like to acknowledge the efforts of our colleagues who assisted with the cost and schedule review of the estimate: Stuart D. Anderson, Debbie A. Niemeier, and Clifford J. Schexnayder.
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Information & Authors
Information
Published In
Journal of Construction Engineering and Management
Volume 137 • Issue 10 • October 2011
Pages: 762 - 771
Copyright
© 2011 American Society of Civil Engineers.
History
Received: Jun 7, 2010
Accepted: Nov 1, 2010
Published online: Nov 3, 2010
Published in print: Oct 1, 2011
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