BCA Research

Last week's GDP and PCE releases have shown that the consumer continues to be the engine of US economic growth. In our latest BCA Research US Bond Strategy report, we discuss how the latest economic data influenced our view on #treasuries. With real income growth slightly below its average pre-pandemic growth rate, consumption has been supported by an incredibly low savings rate and an uptick in credit card borrowing. However, credit card delinquency rates are already above average pre-pandemic levels and it is only a matter of time before the exhaustion of pandemic-era savings. This creates uncertainty about US consumption growth going forward. For more details, please request access to the full report here: https://bit.ly/3NIeJil

Une merveilleuse soirée hier soir à The York Club avec nos invités spéciaux Dr. Matthew Gertken de BCA Research et Tony Keller de The Globe and Mail. Ce fut un véritable plaisir d'écouter Dr. Gertken partager ses idées sur la manière dont les multiples conflits régionaux et les élections importantes peuvent avoir un impact sur les personnes et les portefeuilles en 2024 et au-delà.

Our latest research on the elevated risk of an oil shock ahead of the US election Nov. 5. Israel needs to push back against Iranian proxies, and Iran needs to demonstrate its regional reach to put a wedge between Israel and the US. We favor energy and defense exposure in such an environment. For the full detailed analysis and more independent geopolitical and commodity research, do get in touch via bcaresearch.com

It was a true privilege to have been with you all and received such a warm reception and such challenging comments and questions — all with Tony as expert moderator. Thank you Richter!

UK #inflation is unlikely to get back to target anytime soon unless we see a hard landing in the #UK - provocative analysis by the BCA Research Fixed Income & Currency team explains in detail why this is the case and outlines #tactical investment implications for #rates, #GILTS, #linkers, #GBP - for the full detailed analysis and more independent FICC research feel free to get in touch

Geopolitics Operates with Long and Variable Lags: All the talk about a U.S.-China détente is wishful thinking in the context of the emerging Russo-Chinese de facto alliance. It would be geopolitical suicide for the U.S. to resume funneling capital and technology into China when China is capable of harnessing Russian and Asian natural resources and strategic support, says BCA's Chief Geopolitical Strategist Matthew Gertken. Read more on Chief Investment Officer now! https://lnkd.in/enkdNWPz

BCA Research invites you to an exclusive event featuring Chief US Investment Strategist Doug Peta, CFA, renowned for his insightful market perspectives. On May 9th at 12:00pm CT at The Allegro Royal Sonesta in Chicago. Doug will discuss why he believes a US recession has been postponed rather than cancelled while touching on the following areas of focus: • Consumption • Inflation • Monetary policy • Interest rates • Business cycle evolution • Tactical and cyclical portfolio positioning Mark your calendar and reserve your spot today! https://lnkd.in/eBiKgCBn

Outside of shelter, healthcare, and auto insurance, inflation is running well under 2%, OK, before you say, “gee, that’s great, as long as you’re happy to be homeless, don’t drive, and don’t need any healthcare”. But that’s not the reason to exclude those three categories. The reason to exclude them is that they are all LAGGING components of the inflation basket. Auto insurance premiums are just catching up to the surge in new and used car prices during the pandemic. Shelter inflation is just catching up to the surge in asking rents. And health care prices are just catching up to other prices (remember: most medical prices are set by long-term contracts).

Two more weeks to kickstart BCA Research's #Africa Special Edition with Chester Ntonifor. Super excited to see this project finally come to life — To join us at one of our 5 stops, do not hesitate to get in touch. The cherry on top of the cake? 3 events paired with tasty meals, great company and even better investment insights! Cape Town | Stellenbosch | Pretoria | Johannesburg | Lagos

Thank you to Hamburg Commercial Bank for hosting BCA's Chief China Investment and Emerging Markets Strategist Arthur Budaghyan for a wonderful discussion on China's economy, focusing on the real estate market, commodity markets, and overall economic trends! We hope to be back soon!