Habitat suitability and the genetic structure of human populations during the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) in Western Europe

PLoS One. 2019 Jun 19;14(6):e0217996. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0217996. eCollection 2019.

Abstract

Human populations in Western Europe during the Last Glacial Maximum were geographically constrained to glacial refugia by the severity of the climate and ecological risk factors. In this research we use an agent-based model of human mobility and interaction, based on ethnographic and archaeological data, to explore the impact of ecological risk on human population structure via a reconstructed landscape of habitat suitability. The agent-based model allows us to evaluate the size and location of glacial refugia, the size of the populations occupying them and the degree of genetic relatedness between people occupying these areas. To do this, we model the probability of an agent foraging groups' survival as a function of habitat suitability. The model's simulated "genomes" (composed of regionally specific genetic markers) allow us to track long-term trends of inter-regional interaction and mobility. The results agree with previous archaeological studies situating a large glacial refugium spanning southern France and northeastern Spain, but we expand on those studies by demonstrating that higher rates of population growth in this central refugium led to continuous out-migration and therefore genetic homogeneity across Western Europe, with the possible exception of the Italian peninsula. These results concur with material culture data from known archaeological sites dating to the Last Glacial Maximum and make predictions for future ancient DNA studies.

Publication types

  • Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't

MeSH terms

  • Archaeology
  • Biological Evolution*
  • Climate
  • DNA, Mitochondrial / genetics*
  • Ecosystem
  • Europe
  • France
  • Genetics, Population*
  • Haplotypes
  • Humans
  • Italy
  • Paleontology
  • Phylogeny
  • Phylogeography*
  • Population Density
  • Refugium
  • Sequence Analysis, DNA
  • Spain

Substances

  • DNA, Mitochondrial

Grants and funding

This research was supported and financed by Fonds de recherche du Québec – Société et culture (2019-SE3-254686) and the Social Sciences and Humanities Research Council of Canada (SSHRC #435-2016-1158). The funders had no role in study design, data collection and analysis, decision to publish, or preparation of the manuscript.