When we survey NCAA student-athletes about their expectations of moving on to professional athletics careers, the results indicate surprising confidence in that possibility. The reality is that very few go pro.

Estimated probability of competing in men's college basketball

High School Participants	NCAA Participants	Overall % HS to NCAA	% HS to NCAA Division I	% HS to NCAA Division II	% HS to NCAA Division III
537,438	19,213	3.6%	1.0%	1.0%	1.5%

Sources: High school figures come from the 2022-23 High School Athletics Participation Survey conducted by the National Federation of State High School Associations. College numbers are from the NCAA’s 2022-23 Sports Sponsorship and Participation Rates Report. These college numbers account for participation in college athletics at NCAA-member schools only.

High school-to-NCAA percentages were calculated by dividing the number of NCAA participants in 2022-23 by the number of HS participants in that same year. This assumes that high school and college rosters are turning over at roughly the same rate (e.g., both HS and college participation numbers include four classes of students, and both sets of teams turn over roughly one-quarter of their rosters each year). In prior versions of this table, more complex calculations were used to estimate the number of HS departures and open college roster slots each year; however, these more involved calculations did not lead to substantially different percentages than the simple calculation used currently. Given several potential confounds (e.g., multi-sport participation in high school, frequency of redshirt in NCAA Division I football that would lead to a 5-year rather than 4-year college track), these calculations should be considered approximations and not exact accounting.

The high school-to-NCAA divisional percentages were calculated by dividing the number of 2022-23 participants within each NCAA division by the total number of HS participants. For example, we estimate that approximately 3.6% of HS boys basketball participants go on to play at an NCAA school (Divisions I, II or III), but only 1.0% of HS participants do so at the Division I level.

As the high school figures account only for participants on high school teams and not those competing exclusively on club teams or similar, the true pre-college to NCAA percentages could be lower in some sports (e.g., ice hockey, tennis); see this page for sport-specific information regarding club and high school sport participation). Data for several sports (e.g., rowing, skiing, gymnastics) is not shown due to the low number of high school programs in those sports relative to non-scholastic pre-college participation opportunities.

Estimated probability of competing in men's professional basketball

NCAA Participants	Approximate # Draft Eligible	# Draft Picks	# NCAA Drafted	% NCAA to Major Pro	% NCAA to Total Pro
19,213	4,270	58	46	1.1%	20.6%

• NBA draft data from 2023. There were 58 draft slots in 2023 and 46 went to NCAA athletes (six others were international players not attending U.S. colleges and six were from the U.S. club teams G League Ignite and Overtime Elite). Percentage NCAA to Major Pro calculated using the 46 NCAA selections (calculated as 46 / 4,270 = 1.1%). Since 2013, 10 international players have been drafted on average each year.
• We estimate that 3.8% of draft-eligible Division I players were chosen in the 2023 NBA draft (46 / 1,226). Additionally, approximately 13.7% of draft-eligible players from the five Division I conferences with autonomous governance (ACC, Big Ten, Big 12, Pac-12 and SEC) were drafted by the NBA in 2023 (31 / 226).
• Data on other professional opportunities in men’s basketball were analyzed by NCAA staff with the assistance of eurobasket.com. Tracking 2022-23 international opportunities for the 2022 draft cohort, it was determined that an additional 832 former NCAA student-athletes played internationally, in the G-League or in the NBA as undrafted players (540 from Division I, 227 from Division II and 65 from Division III) after leaving college; this includes international studet-athletes who attended NCAA institutions. These numbers were combined with the 2023 NBA draftees to calculate an approximate NCAA to Total Professional opportunities figure (calculated as [46 + 832] / 4,270 = 21%). Note that the overseas opportunities for the 2023 draft cohort were not used for this analysis because their signing information remained incomplete when data were shared (August 2023).
• We estimate that 48% of the 2023 Division I draft cohort will compete professionally (NBA, G-League or internationally) in their first year post college (calculated as [46 + 540] / 1,226). We also estimate that 63% of the 2023 draft cohort from the five Division I conferences with autonomous governance (ACC, Big Ten, Big 12, Pac-12 and SEC) will play professionally somewhere during the 2023-24 season (calculated as [31 + 111] / 226).

Last Updated: April 1, 2024