Recent Activity of Nyiragongo (Democratic Republic of Congo): New Insights From Field Observations and Numerical Modeling
Abstract
Nyiragongo volcano is known for its active lava lake and for socioeconomic issues arising from future possible eruptive events having major impacts on the community living in the Virunga region. The 2020 field expedition inside the summit crater has allowed the collection of unprecedented field observations to state on the current activity. Since the February 2016 intracrater event, the crater floor level has been rising much faster than during the 2010–2016 period. The current activity is reminiscent of the 1970–1972 and 1994–1995 periods preceding the lava lake drainage events in 1977 and 2002. Numerical simulations, successfully validated with data over the past 30 years, show that the rising of the crater floor could slow down in the next months/years and reach a critical equilibrium. Based on the past eruptive history and on the current activity, a flank eruption in the March 2024 to November 2027 interval could be a possible scenario.
Plain Language Summary
Nyiragongo volcano hosts within its crater the world's largest continuously active lava lake. This constitutes major socioeconomic issues which arise from future possible eruptive events having a catastrophic impact to the Virunga volcanic region's growing community within the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) and Rwanda, particularly the cities of Goma and Gisenyi with about 1.5 million people living at its foot. The 2020 field expedition inside the summit crater allowed the collection of unprecedented field observations to state on the current eruptive activity. Since a new and unusual eruptive event occurred on 29 February 2016, the crater floor level has been rising much faster than during the 2010–2016 period. The current activity is reminiscent of the 1970–1972 and 1994–1995 periods preceding the lava lake drainage events in 1977 and 2002, respectively. Numerical simulations, successfully validated with data over the past 30 years, show that the rising of the crater floor could slow down in the next months/years and reach a precarious balance. Based on the past eruptive history and on the current activity, we stress that a flank eruption in the March 2024 to November 2027 interval could be a possible scenario.
Open Research
Data Availability Statement
The data presented in this study are available online (https://doi.org/10.26037/yareta:4jx4pbkweneg5icpnf6bmxthra).