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Climate Change and the Agrarian Economy: The Case of China

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Abstract

Chapter 4 focuses on the climate change–agrarian economy linkage in Late Imperial China (1600–1840 AD). Both qualitative and quantitative analyses have been applied in a similar practice as Chap. 3 that case study is implemented first and followled by statistical investigation. Population pressure and social crises are also included to examine the economic vulnerabilities in past China besides impacts of climate change. Based on the narrative discussion and statistical analysis on Late Imperial China, the causal relationship between climate change and agrarian economy in pre-industrial world has been constructed and verified in these two chapters to meet all the five criteria of causal analysis raised in Chap. 2.

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Notes

  1. 1.

    Worshiping for a comfortable rainfall. According to Chinese myth, rainfall is controlled by the Dragon King (龙王).

  2. 2.

    (English translation) “Ministry of Revenue reported that due to the cold spring last year, the farming did not start on time and led to less harvest. The spring this year was also cold. But it was now the start of lunar January. We could not miss the time for farming. It should begin the farming as early as possible. If the farming started on time, there would be no harm to harvest.” Volume 4, The Memoir of Taizong (Qing)

    (Original traditional Chinese) “户部曰昨岁春寒, 耕种失时, 以致乏谷。今岁虽复春寒, 然三阳伊始, 农时不可失也, 宜早勤播种而加耘治焉, 夫耕耘及时则稼无灾伤”《太宗实录卷四》

  3. 3.

    English translation: “In (Chongzhen) twentieth year, locust disaster occurred in Liaoyang. The harvest in autumn was wasted.” Volume 18, Northern Campaigns during the Ming Period, Chongzhen fifteenth year. Original traditional Chinese: “(崇禎)十二年, 遼陽復旱蝗, 秋稻縻遺。”《明季北略卷十八》崇禎十五年

  4. 4.

    English translation: “Before the grain was harvested, the autumn frost destroyed the harvest. The rice and other food could possibly not be sufficient.” Volume 58, The Memoir of Qing, Chonde sixth year.

    Original traditional Chinese: “今岁禾谷未收, 秋霜早陨迨收获之时, 孔米粮未能丰足。价值日渐腾贵, 市糶日渐稀少。” 《清实录(大清太宗文皇帝实录)卷五八》崇德六年

  5. 5.

    English translation: “The spring rain did not stop. The troops stayed in the wild place. The soldiers suffered from hunger because there were no food.” Volume 41, The Memoir of Qing, Chonde third year.

    Original traditional Chinese: “今春雨不绝, 屯兵旷野, 粮谷皆无众兵饥饿。” 《清实录卷四一》崇德三年

  6. 6.

    English translation: “In (Chongde) the thirteenth year, a famine occurred in Liaoyang. Human cannibalism happened.” Volume 18, Northern Campaigns during the Ming Period, Chongzhen Fifteenth Year.

    Original traditional Chinese: “(崇祯)十三年, 辽阳大饥, 父子相食。” 《明季北略 》第十八卷崇禎十五年壬午

  7. 7.

    English translation: “The low harvest last year was more serious than that of the previous year. The famine in the northern region was more serious than those the other regions.” Volume 59, The Memoir of Qing, Chonde Seventh Year.

    Original traditional Chinese: “据此窃照本国上年荒歉, 酷于前岁, 北路饥馑, 甚于他道。” (《清实录(大清文太宗文皇帝实录)卷五九》)崇德七年

  8. 8.

    English translation: “We captured 24 persons and seized 2 horses, 4 cattle, and 6 donkeys. Then, we let the soldiers rob again and captured 233 persons and seized 19 horses, 7 mules, 171 cattle, and 115 donkeys.” Volume 44, The Memoir of Qing.

    Original traditional Chinese: “获人口二十四, 马二, 牛四, 驴六, 又军士纵掠, 获人口二百三十三, 马十九, 骡七, 牛一百七十一, 驴一百十五。” 《清实录(大清文宗皇帝实录)卷四四》

  9. 9.

    English translation: “(General) Buersahai took the troops to get food and rice.” Volume 46, The Memoir of Qing. Chongde Fourth Year.

    Original traditional Chinese: “布尔萨海率每牛彔兵六名, 徃取粮米。” 《清实录(大清太宗文皇帝实录)卷四六》崇德四年

  10. 10.

    English translation: “In February, the Qing troops invaded Shouguang and Dezhou.” Volume 16, The Memoir of Chongzhen.

    Original traditional Chinese: “二月, 清兵掠寿光, 攻德州。” 《崇祯实录卷之十六》

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Pei, Q. (2021). Climate Change and the Agrarian Economy: The Case of China. In: Climate Change Economics between Europe and China. Springer, Cham. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-78746-2_4

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