Hébert: Is Justin Trudeau the Liberals’ salvation?

With polls showing that the NDP under Thomas Mulcair is establishing itself as the alternative to the Conservatives and with a leadership campaign about to get officially underway, more and more Liberals are looking for a Hail Mary pass.

Within the ranks of the diminished party, the search for a game-changing leadership move has gained momentum since the NDP convention.

Its proponents argue that settling into a third-place niche for as long as it takes to rebuild the party from the ground up is simply not a viable option. Nor do they think the party has the luxury of giving a rookie leader two mandates to grow into the job.

For all the pious talk about the virtues of the long game, it is not in the DNA of mature parties to play for anything but a win. That is probably even more true of the federal Liberal party — an organization that has a long history in government.

What is also certain is that with Mulcair as leader, the odds that the NDP will put down permanent roots in Quebec and expand its support in Ontario have gone up exponentially. And that could make the ongoing Liberal decline irreversible.

The positive NDP numbers also have a growing number of Liberals looking beyond Bob Rae — the interim leader who seemed to have a prohibitive edge in the leadership contest right up to Mulcair’s convention victory.

Some Liberal insiders see the former NDP premier as a stalking horse for Jean Chrétien and his proposed merger with the NDP.

Others believe that Rae has too much Ontario baggage and not enough Quebec credentials to do well against Stephen Harper and Mulcair in the two central provinces that offer the Liberals their best (and only?) hope for a 2015 comeback.

Some Rae sympathizers worry that he is about to waste the last best years of his public life chasing a pipe dream.

In parallel circumstances in the late 1990s, Joe Clark tried to combine his personal redemption as an unaccomplished prime minister with the salvation of the Progressive Conservatives.

His decision to come out of retirement to lead the embattled Tories turned out to be a zero-sum game. It failed to restore the party to its former glory and it depleted Clark of some of his hard-earned capital as an elder statesman.

Among leadership-worthy Liberals, Rae is clearly the first among equals — with one significant exception.

A year ago, Justin Trudeau ruled himself out of the running. It may be that they won’t take no for an answer but sources insist that decision is all but final. Some senior Liberals swear that he is just playing hard to get. Others argue that, given the shape the party is in, time is of the essence if he is serious about seeking the country’s top job some day.

In a recent Maclean’s interview, Trudeau blew hot and cold on the prospect of running for the job. There is little doubt that he is under pressure to reconsider his decision to sit out the upcoming campaign.

Four years into his federal career, Trudeau remains an untested quantity. His best hits on the Conservatives to date were scored in a boxing ring.

But by virtue of his last name and increasingly his own profile, Trudeau is the rock star of the current Parliament.

In a leadership vote where anyone who signs up as a Liberal supporter will have a say, he would be a formidable contender.

That is not to presume that if it came to a Rae-Trudeau duel the former could not prevail.

But such a duel could pit the hearts of many Liberal loyalists against their reason.

For many Liberals, going into a do-or-die battle behind Trudeau — who is identified with an iconic legacy they are proud to defend — would come more easily than spending a campaign defending Rae’s NDP record.

And if it came to that, more than a few Liberals would feel that losing on a Trudeau ticket would at least offer the party the grace of dying with dignity.

Related: Underdog Justin Trudeau beat Patrick Brazeau in Thrilla on the Hilla