Simulating Arctic Climate Warmth and Icefield Retreat in the Last Interglaciation
Abstract
In the future, Arctic warming and the melting of polar glaciers will be considerable, but the magnitude of both is uncertain. We used a global climate model, a dynamic ice sheet model, and paleoclimatic data to evaluate Northern Hemisphere high-latitude warming and its impact on Arctic icefields during the Last Interglaciation. Our simulated climate matches paleoclimatic observations of past warming, and the combination of physically based climate and ice-sheet modeling with ice-core constraints indicate that the Greenland Ice Sheet and other circum-Arctic ice fields likely contributed 2.2 to 3.4 meters of sea-level rise during the Last Interglaciation.
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Circum-Arctic PaleoEnvironments (CAPE) is a program within the International Geosphere-Biosphere Program (IGBP)–Past Global Changes (PAGES); the CAPE-LIG compilation was supported by the NSF–Office of Polar Programs–Arctic System Science (PARCS) and PAGES. The CAPE Last Interglacial Project Members are P. Anderson, O. Bennike, N. Bigelow, J. Brigham-Grette, M. Duvall, M. Edwards, B. Fréchette, S. Funder, S. Johnsen, J. Knies, R. Koerner, A. Lozhkin, G. MacDonald, S. Marshall, J. Matthiessen, G. Miller, M. Montoya, D. Muhs, B. Otto-Bliesner, J. Overpeck, N. Reeh, H. P. Sejrup, C. Turner, and A. Velichko. We thank E. Brady and D. Schimel for helpful discussions; R. Tomas and M. Stevens for figures; and C. Shields for design and running of the simulations. We acknowledge the efforts of a large group of scientists at the NCAR, at several Department of Energy and National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration labs, and at universities across the United States who contributed to the development of CCSM2. Computing was done at NCAR as part of the Climate Simulation Laboratory. Funding for NCAR and this research was provided by NSF.
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Published In
Science
Volume 311 | Issue 5768
24 March 2006
24 March 2006
Copyright
American Association for the Advancement of Science.
Submission history
Received: 30 September 2005
Accepted: 1 March 2006
Published in print: 24 March 2006
Notes
Supporting Online Material
www.sciencemag.org/cgi/content/full/311/5768/1751/DC1
Materials and Methods
Figs. S1 to S4
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