Odds update every minute | Last updated: 2:14AM EDT on Apr 28, 2024

Election Betting Odds

By Maxim Lott and John Stossel

Why This Beats Polls | Odds from Betfair, Smarkets, PredictIt, Polymarket | How People Bet

Hover over candidate pics to see market breakdown. Hover over underlined titles for amount bet.

Chance of winning...

US Presidency 2024Winner of Presidential election held on Nov 5 2024

$142,982,379 bet so far
Biden details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎 44.0-45.0% $116,789,133
Betfair πŸ‡¬πŸ‡§ 42.4-42.7% $18,754,104
PredictIt πŸ‡ΊπŸ‡Έ 51.0-52.0% $4,549,313
Smarkets πŸ‡¬πŸ‡§ 43.5-44.3% $2,889,829

45.6%

-0.2%
Trump details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎 43.0-44.0% $116,789,133
Betfair πŸ‡¬πŸ‡§ 43.9-44.2% $18,754,104
PredictIt πŸ‡ΊπŸ‡Έ 43.1-44.1% $4,549,313
Smarkets πŸ‡¬πŸ‡§ 43.5-44.3% $2,889,829

43.8%

0.1%
Kennedy details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎 4.1-4.4% $116,789,133
Betfair πŸ‡¬πŸ‡§ 3.4-3.6% $18,754,104
Smarkets πŸ‡¬πŸ‡§ 2.6-3.6% $2,889,829

3.6%

0.1%
Obama details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎 3.7-4.8% $116,789,133
Betfair πŸ‡¬πŸ‡§ 2.5-2.8% $18,754,104
Smarkets πŸ‡¬πŸ‡§ 2.1-2.9% $2,889,829

3.1%

0.1%
Harris details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎 1.0-1.3% $116,789,133
Betfair πŸ‡¬πŸ‡§ 1.2-1.3% $18,754,104
PredictIt πŸ‡ΊπŸ‡Έ 2.9-3.9% $4,549,313
Smarkets πŸ‡¬πŸ‡§ 1.2-2.1% $2,889,829

1.9%

-0.0%
Newsom details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎 0.4-0.5% $116,789,133
Betfair πŸ‡¬πŸ‡§ 1.3-1.3% $18,754,104
Smarkets πŸ‡¬πŸ‡§ 0.6-1.3% $2,889,829

0.9%

-0.0%
Haley details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎 0.3-0.4% $116,789,133
Betfair πŸ‡¬πŸ‡§ 1.1-1.1% $18,754,104
Smarkets πŸ‡¬πŸ‡§ 0.9-1.3% $2,889,829

0.9%

-0.1%
DeSantis details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎 0.4-0.6% $116,789,133
Betfair πŸ‡¬πŸ‡§ 0.3-0.4% $18,754,104
PredictIt πŸ‡ΊπŸ‡Έ 1.0-2.0% $4,549,313
Smarkets πŸ‡¬πŸ‡§ 0.1-0.5% $2,889,829

0.6%

-0.0%
Electoral College (estimate: 276-262. Hover over states)
270 electoral votes needed to win
State election odds update every 20 minutes. Last updated: 1:27AM EDT on Apr 28, 2024
Over $1M bet. State betting is from Polymarket. Others to be added if liquid state market available
GOP VP NomineeRepublican Vice Presidential Nominee in 2024

$21,226,015 bet so far
TimScott details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎 21.0-22.0% $17,012,510
PredictIt πŸ‡ΊπŸ‡Έ 21.0-22.0% $3,474,705
Betfair πŸ‡¬πŸ‡§ 19.2-19.6% $662,772
Smarkets πŸ‡¬πŸ‡§ 18.2-20.8% $76,028

20.5%

-0.1%
Stefanik details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎 8.0-9.0% $17,012,510
PredictIt πŸ‡ΊπŸ‡Έ 15.0-17.0% $3,474,705
Betfair πŸ‡¬πŸ‡§ 7.1-8.3% $662,772
Smarkets πŸ‡¬πŸ‡§ 6.9-9.5% $76,028

10.1%

0.2%
Vance details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎 5.2-6.3% $17,012,510
Betfair πŸ‡¬πŸ‡§ 6.1-7.1% $662,772
Smarkets πŸ‡¬πŸ‡§ 6.1-8.0% $76,028

6.5%

+0.0%
Carson details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎 4.4-5.1% $17,012,510
Betfair πŸ‡¬πŸ‡§ 5.6-6.5% $662,772
Smarkets πŸ‡¬πŸ‡§ 5.1-7.1% $76,028

5.6%

-0.0%
Noem details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎 2.6-3.4% $17,012,510
PredictIt πŸ‡ΊπŸ‡Έ 13.0-14.0% $3,474,705
Betfair πŸ‡¬πŸ‡§ 1.2-3.3% $662,772
Smarkets πŸ‡¬πŸ‡§ 2.1-3.7% $76,028

5.4%

0.2%
Haley details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎 5.0-6.0% $17,012,510
PredictIt πŸ‡ΊπŸ‡Έ 3.0-4.0% $3,474,705
Betfair πŸ‡¬πŸ‡§ 4.5-5.0% $662,772
Smarkets πŸ‡¬πŸ‡§ 4.2-5.4% $76,028

4.6%

+0.0%
Ramaswamy details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎 2.2-2.6% $17,012,510
PredictIt πŸ‡ΊπŸ‡Έ 6.0-7.0% $3,474,705
Betfair πŸ‡¬πŸ‡§ 2.2-2.5% $662,772
Smarkets πŸ‡¬πŸ‡§ 1.8-2.8% $76,028

3.4%

0.1%
Donalds details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎 1.4-1.6% $17,012,510
PredictIt πŸ‡ΊπŸ‡Έ 5.0-6.0% $3,474,705
Betfair πŸ‡¬πŸ‡§ 2.3-2.9% $662,772

3.2%

0.3%

40.7%

Books we like:

"Give Me A Break"
By John Stossel
"Signal and the Noise"
By Nate Silver
"The Scout Mindset"
By Julia Galef
"Radical"
By Maajid Nawaz
"In Order To Live"
By Yeonmi Park

About these odds and FAQ | By Maxim Lott and John Stossel | Odds update every minute

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