Let me start by mentioning that Dr. McCoy is, in my considered opinion, the greatest living American historian. He has led a most fascinating life, some of it described in the early pages of this amazing book. I would encourage all sincere students of history, professional and amateur, as I, to familiarize themselves with Dr. McCoy's life story. It is one of courage and steadfast devotion to truth. Dr. McCoy is a man much to be admired.
Here, Dr. McCoy's main thesis is that the American Century will likely come to a close before it reaches its 100th birthday. If we take the end of World War II as the beginning of this American Century, then the period of American world dominance will not last until 2044. Most often, Dr. McCoy cites the year 2030 as the year when China is likely to surpass the United States in terms of World Power.
Certainly, there are signs already that American power is in decline. Recent events in the Middle East, in particular, reveal Russia to be a more effective player in International Politics than the United States. Syria, Russia's ally, is on the way to defying all odds and to weathering the storm of "regime change" once heralded for it by neoconservative think tank toadies in the United States. This is a startling new development in a region that had been a true sphere of influence for the United States for many long years.
McCoy cites the absurd American Wars in Afghanistan and Iraq as the beginning of the end of American dominance. And this is a very fair proposition. The United States wasted a gargantuan amount of blood and treasure in these two conflicts, to no evident avail. Even now, President Trump is attempting to negotiate an exit from the Afghanistan graveyard of empires. And it is not proving easy for the "Great Deal Maker". (Are you tired of winning yet, America?)
Now, we must admit the difficulty in assessing the relative power of nations until such nations take the drastic step of going to war. Fortunately, there are ways of assessing this relative power short of armed conflict. As a former US Navy Officer, I was always an avid consumer of Jane's Fighting Ships and their other excellent publications that assessed the war fighting capabilities of the various nations. However, the reality is that this analysis is purely a technological one. Now, a warship at sea is the most complex form of social interdependence known to man. The lives of each man in the crew literally depend on the effective performance of duty of each other man. So, a pure technological assessment can not reveal true war fighting capabilities. Leadership and the quality of the crew matter a great deal.
Political Scientist A F K Organski of the University of Michigan gave us some excellent tools for measuring this elusive idea of world power decades ago. Organski argued that GDP, tempered by Population, was as good an approximation as any to measure this aspect of International Power. Looking at this, we see that the United States may, as of the time of this writing, still lead the world on account of a slightly larger GDP that its closest rival, China. However, when we adjust GDP by PPP, which is Purchasing Power Parity, we see that China has already surpassed the United States in "real" GDP. Furthermore, it is perhaps useful to consider GDP as percentage of National Debt. Here we see that that the GDP of the US is actually much less than its astronomical National Debt. Will the National Debt of the US ever be paid off? It does not seem likely. The government of the United States is in something of a position of an indentured servant to the International Bankers. This perhaps explains some of the otherwise inexplicable machinations of modern American Foreign Policy.
However, it seems that we need to look beyond the numbers to articulated strategies and successes of the competing nations. A resurgent Russia has allied with the burgeoning power of China to form an immensely potentially powerful coalition on what Mackinder styled years ago as the World Island. China, in cooperation with Russia and other European and Asian nations is building out the New Silk Road, assuring connectivity of commerce throughout this vast region. China and Russia are both building military arsenals that already challenge the hegemony of the United States. To me, it seems clear that the International Power in the years to come will emanate from this alliance. With this in mind, it is perhaps fair to say that the alliance of Russia and China is already capable of deterring American power. A truly careful look at the headlines will probably confirm this position.
Back to McCoy's great book, the Professor also deals at length with US government involvement both in illicit narcotics trade and in torture. In a way, these aspects illustrate the moral decay of the United States. And perhaps this would go to the above allusion relative to the quality of the crew. A society in moral decay simply can not match a coalition on the rise. And that is perhaps the main point.
In any case, we are much indebted to Professor McCoy for this excellent and thought provoking book. And we wish him God's speed as he continues to pursue his amazing and important career.
God Bless.
Tozer
Guadalajara, Jalisco, Mexico 09-Mar-20
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