RESEARCH ARTICLE
A 1200+ year reconstruction of temperature extremes for the northeastern Mediterranean region
Lara Klippel,
Paul J. Krusic,
Oliver Konter,
Scott St. George,
Valerie Trouet,
Jan Esper,
Corresponding Author
Lara Klippel
Department of Geography, Johannes Gutenberg University, Mainz, Germany
Correspondence
Lara Klippel, Department of Geography, Johannes Gutenberg University, 55099 Mainz, Germany.
Email: [email protected]
Search for more papers by this authorPaul J. Krusic
Department of Geography, University of Cambridge, Cambridge, UK
Department of Physical Geography, Stockholm University, Stockholm, Sweden
Navarino Environmental Observatory, Messinia, Greece
Search for more papers by this authorOliver Konter
Department of Geography, Johannes Gutenberg University, Mainz, Germany
Search for more papers by this authorScott St. George
Department of Geography, Environment and Society, University of Minnesota, Minneapolis, Minnesota
Search for more papers by this authorValerie Trouet
Laboratory of Tree-Ring Research, University of Arizona, Tucson, Arizona
Search for more papers by this authorJan Esper
Department of Geography, Johannes Gutenberg University, Mainz, Germany
Navarino Environmental Observatory, Messinia, Greece
Search for more papers by this author
Lara Klippel,
Paul J. Krusic,
Oliver Konter,
Scott St. George,
Valerie Trouet,
Jan Esper,
Corresponding Author
Lara Klippel
Department of Geography, Johannes Gutenberg University, Mainz, Germany
Correspondence
Lara Klippel, Department of Geography, Johannes Gutenberg University, 55099 Mainz, Germany.
Email: [email protected]
Search for more papers by this authorPaul J. Krusic
Department of Geography, University of Cambridge, Cambridge, UK
Department of Physical Geography, Stockholm University, Stockholm, Sweden
Navarino Environmental Observatory, Messinia, Greece
Search for more papers by this authorOliver Konter
Department of Geography, Johannes Gutenberg University, Mainz, Germany
Search for more papers by this authorScott St. George
Department of Geography, Environment and Society, University of Minnesota, Minneapolis, Minnesota
Search for more papers by this authorValerie Trouet
Laboratory of Tree-Ring Research, University of Arizona, Tucson, Arizona
Search for more papers by this authorJan Esper
Department of Geography, Johannes Gutenberg University, Mainz, Germany
Navarino Environmental Observatory, Messinia, Greece
Search for more papers by this author
Funding information Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft, Grant/Award Number: ES 161/9-1Inst 247/665-1 FUGG; National Science Foundation , Grant/Award Number: AGS-1349942
Abstract
Proxy evidence is necessary to place current temperature and hydroclimatic changes in a long-term context and to assess the full range of natural and anthropogenic climate forcings. Here, we present the first millennium-length reconstruction of late summer (August–September) temperature variability for the Mediterranean region. We compiled 132 maximum latewood density (MXD) tree-ring series of living and relict Pinus heldreichii trees from a network of four high-elevation sites in the Pindus Mountains of Greece. Forty series reach back into the first millennium and the oldest sample dates to 575 CE. At annual to decadal scales, the record correlates significantly with August–September temperatures over the Balkan Peninsula and northeastern Mediterranean (r1950–2014 = 0.71, p < 0.001). We produce two reconstructions emphasizing interannual and decadal scale variance over the past millennium. Analysis of temperature extremes reveals the coldest summers occurred in 1035, 1117, 1217, 1884 and 1959 and the coldest decades were 1061–1070 and 1811–1820. The warmest summers occurred in 1240 and 1474, and the warmest decades were 1141–1150 and 1481–1490. Comparison of this new reconstruction with MXD-based summer temperature reconstructions across Europe reveals synchronized occurrences of extreme cool summers in the northeastern Mediterranean, and an antiphase-relationship with warm summer temperatures over the British Isles and Scandinavia. This temperature dipole is related to anomalies in the latitudinal position of the North Atlantic Jet. Despite the representation of common atmospheric forcing patterns, the occurrence of warm extremes is limited to few events, suggesting potential weaknesses of MXD to record warm temperature anomalies. In addition, we acknowledge problems in the observational data to capture local temperature variability due to small scale topographic differences in this high-elevation landscape. At a broader geographical scale, the occurrence of common cold summer extremes is restricted to years with volcanically induced changes in radiative forcing.
CONFLICTS OF INTEREST
The authors declare no conflict of interest.
Supporting Information
| Filename | Description |
|---|---|
| joc5955-sup-0001-AppendixS1.docxWord document, 671 KB | Supporting Information Figure S1 Coherence among (a) 100SP and (b) 10SP Pinus heldreichii MXD chronologies from the Katarapass (KAT), Mt Olympus (OLY), Mt. Smolikas (SMO) in Greece, Sierra de Crispo (ITP) in Italy and the Vihren peak (VIH) in Bulgaria. Pairwise correlations were established for the individual common period with n > 10 series and over the common period 1769–1980. (c) Growth rates for the first 200 years (only living material considered) for the sites OLY, SMO and VIH. Material was split according to the measuring dates in 1981, 2008, 2010 and 2017 Figure S2 Density comparison between (a) living (red) and relict (green) material for the first and last 200 years of growth and (b) same as in a but additional data split by site. Living material origins from three sites (red shadings) and relict material from four sites (green shadings). Numbers indicate the sample replication Figure S3 Correlations and partial correlations of the (a) 100SP and (b) 10SP chronology with climate data from the EOBS v. 15 grid 40.25°N and 20.75°E over the period 1950–2014. Simple Pearson correlations were performed with the primary climate variable (upper panels). For a partial correlation, the effect of the inter-correlation between primary and secondary climate variable was removed (lower panels) Figure S4 Super epoch analysis. (a) 100SP reconstructed temperature anomalies with respect to 5 years prior to the assumed NH forcing dates of the eruptions Eldgja 939, Unknown Eruption (UE) 1108, UE 1171, UE 1230, Samalas 1257, Kuwae 1452, Huaynaputina 1601, Parker 1641, UE 1695, Laki 1783, UE 1809, Tambora 1815, 1835 Cosiguina and 1883 Krakatau (black) and its mean (red). Grey shadings indicate 99% confidence intervals, and (b) same for 10SP reconstruction Figure S5 100SP SMO reconstruction and re-standardized and re-calibrated temperature reconstructions for 10 tree-ring sites (listed in Table 1) across Europe (grey), corresponding 20 years smoothed values (red) and their respective correlation coefficients with the SMO reconstruction over the common period 1769–1978 Figure S6 Temperature sequence of instrumental data used for calibration (grey) and position of the five coldest (blue) and five warmest (red) reconstructed temperatures (lower panel 100SP and upper panel 10SP) for the SMO reconstruction and all records listed in Table 1 Table S1 Twenty coldest and warmest reconstructed August–September summer temperatures since 738 CE that appear at mid (100SP) to high (10SP) frequencies |
Please note: The publisher is not responsible for the content or functionality of any supporting information supplied by the authors. Any queries (other than missing content) should be directed to the corresponding author for the article.
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