Hostname: page-component-76fb5796d-vfjqv Total loading time: 0 Render date: 2024-04-27T14:54:02.649Z Has data issue: false hasContentIssue false
  • English
  • Français

Safeguarding Democracy: Powersharing and Democratic Survival

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  22 August 2017

BENJAMIN A.T. GRAHAM ,
MICHAEL K. MILLER  and
KAARE W. STRØM
BENJAMIN A.T. GRAHAM*
Affiliation:
University of Southern California
MICHAEL K. MILLER*
Affiliation:
George Washington University
KAARE W. STRØM*
Affiliation:
University of California at San Diego
*
Benjamin A.T. Graham is Assistant Professor, School of International Relations, University of Southern California, 3518 Trousdale Pkwy, VKC 330, Los Angeles, CA 90007 (benjamin.a.graham@usc.edu).
Michael K. Miller is Associate Professor, Department of Political Science, George Washington University, Monroe 440, 2115 G St. NW, Washington, DC 20052 (mkm2@gwu.edu).
Kaare W. Strøm is Distinguished Professor, Department of Political Science, University of California at San Diego, 9500 Gilman Dr. #0521, La Jolla, CA 92093 (kstrom@ucsd.edu).
Get access Rights & Permissions [Opens in a new window]

Abstract

Democracy is often fragile, especially in states recovering from civil conflict. To protect emerging democracies, many scholars and practitioners recommend political powersharing institutions, which aim to safeguard minority group interests. Yet there is little empirical research on whether powersharing promotes democratic survival, and some concern that it limits electoral accountability. To fill this gap, we differentiate between inclusive, dispersive, and constraining powersharing institutions and analyze their effects on democratic survival from 1975 to 2015 using a global dataset. We find sharp distinctions across types of powersharing and political context. Inclusive powersharing, such as ethnic quotas, promotes democratic survival only in post-conflict settings. In contrast, dispersive institutions such as federalism tend to destabilize post-conflict democracies. Only constraining powersharing consistently facilitates democratic survival regardless of recent conflict. Institution-builders and international organizations should therefore prioritize institutions that constrain leaders, including independent judiciaries, civilian control of the armed forces, and constitutional protections of individual and group rights.

Type
Research Article
Information
American Political Science Review , Volume 111 , Issue 4 , November 2017 , pp. 686 - 704
Copyright
Copyright © American Political Science Association 2017 

Access options

Get access to the full version of this content by using one of the access options below. (Log in options will check for institutional or personal access. Content may require purchase if you do not have access.)

Footnotes

The authors would like to thank Scott Gates, Håvard Strand, Cesi Cruz, and Megan Becker for their work on the underlying data. We would also like to thank Anisha Chinwalla, Xinru Ma, Johanna Reyes, Jihyun Shin, and Patrick Vossler for research assistance. The authors gratefully acknowledge the support of the National Science Foundation (Grant No. SES-081950766b; PI: Strøm) and the Norwegian Research Council (196850/F10; PI: Gates). Finally, we are grateful to Clayton Thyne, James Lo, Yon Lupu, and to workshop participants at the Center for International Studies Working Paper Series at USC, MPSA 2015, and the Institute for Advanced Studies in Vienna, as well as three anonymous reviewers and Editor Carey for comments on drafts of this article.

References

REFERENCES

Acemoglu, Daron, and Robinson, James. 2012. Why Nations Fail: The Origins of Power, Prosperity, and Poverty. New York: Random House.Google Scholar
Almond, Gabriel A., and Verba, Sidney. 1963. The Civic Culture: Political Attitudes and Democracy in Five Nations. Princeton: Princeton University Press.Google Scholar
Andeweg, Rudy B. 2000. “Consociational Democracy.” Annual Review of Political Science 3: 509–36.Google Scholar
Binningsbø, Helga Malmin. 2013. “Power Sharing, Peace and Democracy: Any Obvious Relationships?” International Area Studies Review 16 (1): 89–112.Google Scholar
Boix, Carles. 2011. “Democracy, Development, and the International System.” American Political Science Review 105 (4): 809–28.Google Scholar
Boix, Carles, Miller, Michael, and Rosato, Sebastian. 2013. “A Complete Data Set of Political Regimes, 1800–2007.” Comparative Political Studies 46 (12): 1523–54.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Bratton, Michael. 2010. Zimbabwe: Power-Sharing Deal Under Stress. Washington, DC: United States Institute for Peace.Google Scholar
Bunce, Valerie. 2000. “Comparative Democratization: Big and Bounded Generalizations.” Comparative Political Studies 33 (6-7): 703–34.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Campbell, John. 2013. Nigeria: Dancing on the Brink (Updated edition). Lanham, MD: Rowman & Littlefield Publishers.Google Scholar
Cederman, Lars-Erik, Hug, Simon, Schädel, Andreas, and Wucherpfennig, Julian. 2015. “Territorial Autonomy in the Shadow of Conflict: Too Little, Too Late?” American Political Science Review 109 (2): 354–70.Google Scholar
Cheeseman, Nic. 2010. “African Elections as Vehicles for Change.” Journal of Democracy 21 (4): 139–53.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Chhibber, Pradeep K., and Kollman, Ken. 2004. The Formation of National Party Systems. Princeton: Princeton University Press.Google Scholar
Čihák, Martin, Demirgüç-Kunt, Asli, Feyen, Erik, and Levine, Ross. 2012. “Benchmarking Financial Systems Around the World.” World Bank Policy Research Working Paper #6175.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Correlates of War. 2010. COW Wars, Version 4.0, 1816–2007. Available at: www.correlatesofwar.org.Google Scholar
Dahl, Robert. 1971. Polyarchy: Participation and Opposition. New Haven: Yale University Press.Google Scholar
Downes, Alexander B. 2004. “The Problem with Negotiated Settlements to Ethnic Civil Wars.” Security Studies 13 (4): 230–79.Google Scholar
Fortna, Virginia Page. 2008. Does Peacekeeping Work? Shaping Belligerents’ Choices after Civil War. Princeton: Princeton University Press.Google Scholar
Freedom House. 2016. Freedom in the World 2016: The Annual Survey of Political Rights and Civil Liberties. Lanham, MD: Rowman & Littlefield Publishers.Google Scholar
Gates, Scott. 2002. “Recruitment and Allegiance: The Microfoundations of Rebellion.” Journal of Conflict Resolution 46 (1): 111–30.Google Scholar
Gates, Scott, Graham, Benjamin A. T., Lupu, Yonatan, Strand, Håvard, and Strøm, Kaare. 2016. “Powersharing, Protection, and Peace.” Journal of Politics 78 (2): 512–26.Google Scholar
Geddes, Barbara. 1994. Politician's Dilemma: Building State Capacity in Latin America. Berkeley: University of California Press.Google Scholar
Gelbach, Scott, Myerson, Roger and Mylovanov, Tymofiy. 2014. “A Way Forward for Ukraine.” New York Times. March 19, 2014.Google Scholar
Gibler, Douglas M., and Randazzo, Kirk A.. 2011. “Testing the Effects of Independent Judiciaries on the Likelihood of Democratic Backsliding.” American Journal of Political Science 55 (3): 696–709.Google Scholar
Goemans, H. E., Gleditsch, Kristian Skrede, and Chiozza, Giacomo. 2016. Archigos: A Data Set on Leaders, 1875–2015, Version 4.1.Google Scholar
Graham, Benjamin A. T., and Tucker, Jacob. 2017. “The International Political Economy Data Resource.” Review of International Organizations, Forthcoming.Google Scholar
Haber, Stephen and Menaldo, Victor. 2011. “Do Natural Resources Fuel Authoritarianism? A Reappraisal of the Resource Curse.” American Political Science Review 105 (1): 1–26.Google Scholar
Hale, Henry E. 2004. “Divided We Stand: Institutional Sources of Ethno-federal State Survival and Collapse.” World Politics 56 (2): 165–93.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Hartzell, Caroline, and Hoddie, Matthew. 2003. “Institutionalizing Peace: Power Sharing and Post‐Civil War Conflict Management.” American Journal of Political Science 47 (2): 318–32.Google Scholar
Hartzell, Caroline, and Hoddie, Matthew. 2007. Crafting Peace: Powersharing Institutions and the Negotiated Settlement of Civil Wars. Penn State Press.Google Scholar
Hartzell, Caroline, and Hoddie, Matthew. 2015. “The Art of the Possible: Power Sharing and Post-Civil War Democracy.” World Politics 67 (1): 37–71.Google Scholar
Henisz, Witold J. 2010. The Political Constraint Index (POLCON) Dataset. Available at: www.management.wharton.upenn.edu/henisz.Google Scholar
Heston, Alan, Summers, Robert, and Aten, Bettina. 2011. Penn World Table, Version 7.0. Center for International Comparisons of Production, Income and Prices, University of Pennsylvania.Google Scholar
Higley, John, and Burton, Michael G.. 1989. “The Elite Variable in Democratic Transitions and Breakdowns.” American Sociological Review 54 (1): 17–32.Google Scholar
Horowitz, Donald L. 2003. “The Cracked Foundations of the Right to Secede.” Journal of Democracy 14 (2): 5–17.Google Scholar
Houle, Christian. 2009. “Inequality and Democracy: Why Inequality Harms Consolidation but Does Not Affect Democratization.” World Politics 61 (4): 589–622.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Jarstad, Anna K., and Sisk, Timothy D.. 2008. From War to Democracy: Dilemmas of Peacebuilding. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.Google Scholar
Jung, Jai Kwan. 2012. “Powersharing and Democracy Promotion in Post-Civil War Peace-Building.” Democratization 19 (3): 486–506.Google Scholar
Jung, Courtney, Lust-Okar, Ellen, and Shapiro, Ian. 2005. “Problems and Prospects for Democratic Settlements: South Africa as a Model for the Middle East and Northern Ireland?” Politics & Society 33 (2): 277–326.Google Scholar
Kalyvas, Stathis N., and Adam Kocher, Matthew. 2007. “How ‘Free’ Is Free Riding in Civil Wars? Violence, Insurgency, and the Collective Action Problem.” World Politics 59 (2): 177–216.Google Scholar
Kapstein, Ethan B., and Converse, Nathan. 2008. The Fate of Young Democracies. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.Google Scholar
King, Gary, and Zeng, Langche. 2001. “Logistic Regression in Rare Events Data.” Political Analysis 9 (2): 137–63.Google Scholar
Laeven, Luc, and Valencia, Fabián. 2008. “Systemic Banking Crises: A New Database.” IMF Working Paper #08/224.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Lake, David A., and Rothchild, Donald. 2005. “Territorial Decentralization and Civil War Settlements.” In Sustainable Peace: Power and Democracy after Civil Wars, eds. Roeder, Philip G. and Rothchild, Donald S.. Ithaca: Cornell University Press, 109–32.Google Scholar
LeBas, Adrienne. 2014. “The Perils of Power Sharing.” Journal of Democracy 25 (2): 52–66.Google Scholar
LeVan, A. Carl. 2011. “Power Sharing and Inclusive Politics in Africa's Uncertain Democracies.” Governance 24 (1): 31–53.Google Scholar
Lieven, Anatol. 2014. “Ukraine—the Way Out.” New York Review of Books. June 15, 2014.Google Scholar
Lijphart, Arend. 1977. Democracy in Plural Societies: A Comparative Exploration. New Haven: Yale University Press.Google Scholar
Lijphart, Arend. (1999) 2012. Patterns of Democracy: Government Forms and Performance in Thirty-Six Countries. New Haven: Yale University Press.Google Scholar
Lijphart, Arend. 2002. “The Wave of Powersharing Democracy.” In The Architecture of Democracy: Constitutional Design, Conflict Management, and Democracy ed. Andrew Reynolds. Oxford: Oxford University Press, 37–54.Google Scholar
Linder, Wolf, and Bächtiger, André. 2005. “What Drives Democratisation in Asia and Africa?” European Journal of Political Research 44 (6): 861–80.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Linz, Juan J., and Stepan, Alfred. 1996. Problems of Democratic Transition and Consolidation: Southern Europe, South America, and Post-Communist Europe. Baltimore: JHU Press.Google Scholar
Maeda, Ko. 2010. “Two Modes of Democratic Breakdown: A Competing Risks Analysis of Democratic Durability.” Journal of Politics 72 (4): 1129–43.Google Scholar
Mansfield, Edward D., and Snyder, Jack. 2007. “The Sequencing ‘Fallacy.’” Journal of Democracy 18 (1): 5–10.Google Scholar
Marshall, Monty G. 2012. Major Episodes of Political Violence, 1946–2012. Center for Systemic Peace. Available at: www.systemicpeace.org.Google Scholar
Marshall, Monty G., and Cole, Benjamin R.. 2014. State Fragility Index and Matrix 2013. Center for Systemic Peace. Available at: www.systemicpeace.org.Google Scholar
Marshall, Monty G., and Jaggers, Keith. 2014. Polity IV Project: Political Regime Characteristics and Transitions, 1800–2014. Center for Systemic Peace.Google Scholar
Mattes, Michaela, and Savun, Burcu. 2009. “Fostering Peace after Civil War: Commitment Problems and Agreement Design.” International Studies Quarterly 53 (3): 737–59.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Mehler, Andreas. 2009. “Peace and Power Sharing in Africa: A Not So Obvious Relationship.” African Affairs 108 (432): 453–73.Google Scholar
Monteux, Camille A. 2006. “Decentralisation: The New Delusion of Ethnic Conflict Regulation.” International Journal on Multicultural Societies 8 (2): 162–82.Google Scholar
Moraski, Bryon. 2009. “Judicial Complexity Empowering Opposition? Critical Elections in Armenia and Georgia.” In Democratization by Elections: A New Mode of Transition, ed. Staffan Lindberg. Baltimore: Johns Hopkins University Press, 269–88.Google Scholar
Mukherjee, Bumba. 2006. “Why Political Power‐Sharing Agreements Lead to Enduring Peaceful Resolution of Some Civil Wars, but Not Others?” International Studies Quarterly 50 (2): 479–504.Google Scholar
Muller, Edward N., and Seligson, Mitchell A.. 1994. “Civic Culture and Democracy: The Question of Causal Relationships.” American Political Science Review 88 (3): 635–52.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Nixon, Hamish, and Hartzell, Caroline. 2011. “Beyond Power Sharing: Institutional Options for an Afghan Peace Process.” United States Institute of Peace, Washington, DC.Google Scholar
Norris, Pippa. 2008. Driving Democracy: Do Power-Sharing Institutions Work? Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.Google Scholar
Norris, Pippa. 2012. Making Democratic Governance Work. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.Google Scholar
North, Douglass C., and Weingast, Barry R.. 1989. “Constitutions and Commitment: The Evolution of Institutions Governing Public Choice in 17th Century England.” Journal of Economic History 49 (4): 803–32.Google Scholar
Oates, Wallace E. 1972. Fiscal Federalism. New York: Harcourt Brace Jovanovich.Google Scholar
O'Donnell, Guillermo. 1994. “Delegative Democracy.” Journal of Democracy 5 (1): 55–69.Google Scholar
Oster, Emily. Forthcoming. “Unobservable Selection and Coefficient Stability: Theory and Evidence.” Journal of Business & Economic Statistics.Google Scholar
Ottmann, Martin, and Vüllers, Johannes. 2015. “The Power-Sharing Event Dataset (PSED): A New Dataset on the Promises and Practices of Power-Sharing in Post-Conflict Countries.” Conflict Management and Peace Science 32 (3): 327–50.Google Scholar
Posner, Daniel N., and Young, Daniel J.. 2007. “The Institutionalization of Political Power in Africa.” Journal of Democracy 18 (3): 126–40.Google Scholar
Przeworski, Adam. 1991. Democracy and the Market: Political and Economic Reforms in Eastern Europe and Latin America. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Reenock, Christopher, Staton, Jeffrey K., and Radean, Marius. 2013. “Legal Institutions and Democratic Survival.” Journal of Politics 75 (2): 491–505.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Reilly, Benjamin. 2005. “Does the Choice of Electoral System Promote Democracy? The Gap between Theory and Practice.” In Sustainable Peace: Power and Democracy after Civil Wars, eds. Philip G. Roeder and Donald S. Rothchild. Ithaca: Cornell University Press, 159–71.Google Scholar
Roeder, Philip G. 2001. Ethnolinguistic Fractionalization (ELF) Indices, 1961 and 1985. Available at weber.ucsd.edu/˜proeder/elf.htm.Google Scholar
Roeder, Philip G. 2005. “Power Dividing as an Alternative to Ethnic Power Sharing.” In Sustainable Peace: Power and Democracy after Civil Wars, eds. Roeder, Philip G. and Rothchild, Donald S.. Ithaca: Cornell University Press, 51–82.Google Scholar
Roeder, Philip G. 2009. “Ethnofederalism and the Mismanagement of Conflicting Nationalisms.” Regional and Federal Studies 19 (2): 203–19.Google Scholar
Roeder, Philip G., and Rothchild, Donald S., eds. 2005. Sustainable Peace: Power and Democracy after Civil Wars. Ithaca: Cornell University Press.Google Scholar
Rosenfeld, Bryn. Forthcoming. “Reevaluating the Middle Class Protest Paradigm: A Case-Control Study of Democratic Protest Coalitions in Russia.” American Political Science Review.Google Scholar
Ross, Michael L. 2013. Oil and Gas Data, 1932–2011. Available at: thedata.harvard.edu/dvn/dv/mlross.Google Scholar
Rothchild, Donald S. and Roeder, Philip G.. 2005. “Power Sharing as an Impediment to Peace and Democracy.” In Sustainable Peace: Power and Democracy after Civil Wars, eds. Roeder, Philip G. and Rothchild, Donald S.. Ithaca: Cornell University Press, 29–50.Google Scholar
Sarkees, Meredith Reid, and Wayman, Frank. 2010. Resort to War: 1816–2007. Washington, DC: CQ Press.Google Scholar
Selway, Joel, and Templeman, Kharis. 2012. “The Myth of Consociationalism? Conflict Reduction in Divided Societies.” Comparative Political Studies 45 (12): 1542–71.Google Scholar
Sisk, Timothy D. 1996. Power Sharing and International Mediation in Ethnic Conflicts. Washington, DC: US Institute of Peace Press.Google Scholar
Sisk, Timothy D., and Stefes, Christoph. 2005. “Power Sharing as an Interim Step in Peace Building: Lessons from South Africa.” In Sustainable Peace: Power and Democracy after Civil Wars, eds. Roeder, Philip G. and Rothchild, Donald S.. Ithaca: Cornell University Press, 293–318.Google Scholar
Sriram, Chandra Lekha, and Zahar, Marie-Joëlle. 2009. “The Perils of Powersharing: Africa and Beyond.” Africa Spectrum 44 (3): 11–39.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Stedman, Stephen John. 1997. “Spoiler Problems in Peace Processes.” International Security 22 (2): 5–53.Google Scholar
Strøm, Kaare, Gates, Scott, Graham, Benjamin A. T., and Strand, Håvard. 2017. “Inclusion, Dispersion, and Constraint: Powersharing in the World's States, 1975–2010.” British Journal of Political Science 47 (1): 165–85.Google Scholar
The Economist (editorial board). 2015. “Three Cheers for Democracy.” April 4, 2015.Google Scholar
Themnér, Lotta, and Wallensteen, Peter. 2012. “Armed Conflicts, 1946–2011.” Journal of Peace Research 49 (4): 565–75.Google Scholar
Tiebout, Charles M. 1956. “A Pure Theory of Local Expenditures.” Journal of Political Economy 64 (5): 416–24.Google Scholar
Tull, Denis M., and Mehler, Andreas. 2005. “The Hidden Costs of Powersharing: Reproducing Insurgent Violence in Africa.” African Affairs 104 (416): 375–98.Google Scholar
Walter, Barbara F. 2002. Committing to Peace: The Successful Settlement of Civil Wars. Princeton: Princeton University Press.Google Scholar
World Bank. 2014. World Development Indicators Online (WDI). Available at: www.worldbank.org/data.Google Scholar
Wimmer, Andreas, Cederman, Lars‐Erik, and Min, Brian. 2009. “Ethnic Politics and Armed Conflict: A Configurational Analysis of a New Global Data Set.” American Sociological Review 74 (2): 316–37.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Zakaria, Fareed. 2003. The Future of Freedom: Illiberal Democracy at Home and Abroad. New York: W.W. Norton.Google Scholar
Supplementary material: Link

Graham et al. Dataset

Dataset

http://dx.doi.org/10.7910/DVN/KGOUYI
Link
Supplementary material: PDF

Graham et al supplementary material

Online Appendix

Download Graham et al supplementary material(PDF)
PDF 4.2 MB