Hostname: page-component-76fb5796d-zzh7m Total loading time: 0 Render date: 2024-04-27T12:30:55.878Z Has data issue: false hasContentIssue false
  • English
  • Français

Don't Call It a Comeback: Autocratic Ruling Parties After Democratization

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  27 August 2019

Michael K. Miller
Michael K. Miller*
Affiliation:
Department of Political Science and International Affairs, George Washington University, Washington, DC
*
*Corresponding author. E-mail: mkm2@gwu.edu
Get access Rights & Permissions [Opens in a new window]

Abstract

When autocratic ruling parties accede to democratization, they do not always fade away into history. Following forty-one transitions since 1940, including those in Mexico, Taiwan, Bulgaria and Ghana, the ruling party survived and won power after democratization. Why do some former autocratic parties prosper under democracy while others quickly dissolve? What effect does this have on democratic survival? This article uses original data to predict the post-transition fates of eighty-four autocratic ruling parties through 2015. Whereas extant theories emphasize radical reinvention and outsider struggle, the author argues that success is instead about maintaining ruling-party advantages into the democratic period. Parties succeed when they have authoritarian legacies that easily translate to democratic competition, such as broad programmatic experience, strong organization and policy success. In addition, democratic institutions that disadvantage new parties and actors benefit autocratic parties. Lastly, an instrumental variables design shows that autocratic party success negatively impacts democratic survival and quality.

Keywords

autocratic partiesdemocratizationelections
Type
Article
Information
British Journal of Political Science , Volume 51 , Issue 2 , April 2021 , pp. 559 - 583
Copyright
Copyright © Cambridge University Press 2019

Access options

Get access to the full version of this content by using one of the access options below. (Log in options will check for institutional or personal access. Content may require purchase if you do not have access.)

References

Albertus, M and Menaldo, V (2018) Authoritarianism and the Elite Origins of Democracy. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.Google Scholar
Baker, B (1998) The class of 1990: how have the autocratic leaders of sub-Saharan Africa fared under democratisation? Third World Quarterly 19(1), 115–127.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Bernhard, M and Karakoç, E (2007) Civil society and the legacies of dictatorship. World Politics 59, 539–567.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Birch, S (2003) Electoral Systems and Political Transformation in Post-Communist Europe. New York: Palgrave Macmillan.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Boix, C (1999) Setting the rules of the game: the choice of electoral systems in advanced democracies. American Political Science Review 93(3), 609–624.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Boix, C, Miller, MK and Rosato, S (2013) A complete data set of political regimes, 1800–2007. Comparative Political Studies 46(12), 1523–1554.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Brownlee, JM (2007) Hereditary succession in modern autocracies. World Politics 59, 595–628.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Burgess, K and Levitsky, S (2003) Explaining populist party adaptation in Latin America: environmental and organizational determinants of party change in Argentina, Mexico, Peru, and Venezuela. Comparative Political Studies 36(8), 859–880.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Cheeseman, N (2010) African elections as vehicles for change. Journal of Democracy 21(4), 139–153.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Cheibub, JA, Gandhi, J and Vreeland, JR (2010) Democracy and dictatorship revisited. Public Choice 143, 67–101.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Cheng, T-J (2008) Embracing defeat: the KMT and the PRI after 2000. In Friedman, E and Wong, J (eds), Political Transitions in Dominant Party Systems: Learning to Lose. New York: Routledge, pp. 127–147.Google Scholar
Coppedge, M et al. (2016) V-Dem [Country-Year/Country-Date] Dataset, Version 6. Varieties of Democracy (V-Dem) Project.Google Scholar
Correlates of War Project (2015) Territorial Change, 1816–2014 (Version 5.0). Available from http://www.correlatesofwar.org.Google Scholar
Freedom House (2016) Freedom in the World 2016: The Annual Survey of Political Rights and Civil Liberties. Lanham, MD: Rowman & Littlefield Publishers.Google Scholar
Friedman, E and Wong, J (eds) (2008) Political Transitions in Dominant Party Systems: Learning to Lose. New York: Routledge.Google Scholar
Geddes, B (1999) What do we know about democratization after twenty years? Annual Review of Political Science 2, 115–144.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Geddes, B, Wright, J and Frantz, E (2014) Authoritarian breakdown and regime transitions: a new data set. Perspectives on Politics 12(2), 313–331.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Goemans, HE, Gleditsch, KS and Chiozza, G (2016) Archigos: A Data Set on Leaders, 1875–2015, Version 4.1.Google Scholar
Grzymala-Busse, A (2002) Redeeming the Communist Past: The Regeneration of Communist Parties in East Central Europe. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Grzymala-Busse, A (2008) The communist exit in East Central Europe and its consequences. In Friedman, E and Wong, J (eds), Political Transitions in Dominant Party Systems: Learning to Lose. New York, Routledge, pp. 91–105.Google Scholar
Grzymala-Busse, A (2019) Hoist on their own petards? The reinvention and collapse of authoritarian successor parties. Party Politics 25(4), 569–82.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Haber, S and Menaldo, V (2011) Do natural resources fuel authoritarianism? A reappraisal of the resource curse. American Political Science Review 105, 1–26.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Harmel, R and Robertson, JD (1985) Formation and success of new parties: a cross-national analysis. International Political Science Review 6(4), 501–523.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Henisz, WJ (2013) The Political Constraint Index Dataset. Available from http://mgmt.wharton.upenn.edu/profile/1327.Google Scholar
Hicken, A (2009) Building Party Systems in Developing Democracies. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Hicken, A and Kuhonta, EM (2011) Shadows from the past: party system institutionalization in Asia. Comparative Political Studies 44(5), 572–597.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Ishiyama, J (1997) The sickle or the rose? Previous regime types and the evolution of the ex-communist parties in post-communist politics. Comparative Political Studies 30(3), 299–330.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Ishiyama, J (2008) Learning to lose (and sometimes win): the neocommunist parties in post-soviet politics. In Friedman, E and Wong, J (eds), Political Transitions in Dominant Party Systems: Learning to Lose. New York, Routledge, pp. 148–168.Google Scholar
Ishiyama, J and Quinn, JJ (2006) African phoenix? Explaining the electoral performance of the formerly dominant parties in Africa. Party Politics 12(3), 317–340.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Jhee, B-K (2008) Economic origins of electoral support for authoritarian successors: a cross-national analysis of economic voting in new democracies. Comparative Political Studies 41(3), 362–388.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Karl, TL (1990) Dilemmas of democratization in Latin America. Comparative Politics 23(1), 1–21.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Keefer, P (2012) Database of Political Institutions: Changes and Variable Definitions. Washington, DC: World Bank.Google Scholar
Kitschelt, H (1995) Formation of party cleavages in post-communist democracies: theoretical propositions. Party Politics 1, 447–472.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Kitschelt, H et al. (1999) Post-Communist Party Systems: Competition, Representation, and Inter-Party Cooperation. New York: Cambridge University Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Kuenzi, M and Lambright, G (2005) Party systems and democratic consolidation in Africa's electoral regimes. Party Politics 11(4), 423–446.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Langston, J (2017) Democratization and Authoritarian Party Survival: Mexico's PRI. Oxford: Oxford University Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Levitsky, S (2003) Transforming Labor-Based Parties in Latin America: Argentine Peronism in Comparative Perspective. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Levitsky, S and Way, L (2013) The durability of revolutionary regimes. Journal of Democracy 24(3), 5–16.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Lijphart, A (1999) Patterns of Democracy: Government Forms and Performance in Thirty-Six Countries. New Haven, CT: Yale University Press.Google Scholar
Loxton, J (2015) Authoritarian successor parties. Journal of Democracy 26(3), 157–170.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Loxton, J (2018) Introduction: authoritarian successor parties worldwide. In Loxton, J and Mainwaring, S (eds), Life After Dictatorship: Authoritarian Successor Parties Worldwide. Cambridge, Cambridge University Press, pp. 1–49.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Loxton, J and Mainwaring, S (eds) (2018) Life After Dictatorship: Authoritarian Successor Parties Worldwide. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Mainwaring, S and Pérez-Liñán, A (2013) Democracies and Dictatorships in Latin America: Emergence, Survival, and Fall. New York: Cambridge University Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Mares, I and Carnes, ME (2009) Social policy in developing countries. Annual Review of Political Science 12, 93–113.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Marshall, MG and Jaggers, K (2017). Polity IV Project: Political Regime Characteristics and Transitions, 1800–2016. Washington, DC: Center for Systemic Peace, George Mason University.Google Scholar
Matanock, AM (2017). Electing Peace: From Civil Conflict to Political Participation. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Miller, MK (2015) Democratic pieces: autocratic elections and democratic development since 1815. British Journal of Political Science 45(3), 501–530.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Miller, MK (2016) Democracy by example? Why democracy spreads when the world's democracies prosper. Comparative Politics 49(1), 83–116.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Miller, MK (2019) Replication Data for: “Don't Call It a Comeback: Autocratic Ruling Parties after Democratization, https://doi.org/10.7910/DVN/E3NJN8, Harvard Dataverse, V1, UNF:6:b5QX51OTJT6WkexpgSk5BQ== [fileUNF]Google Scholar
Orenstein, M (1998) A genealogy of communist successor parties in East-Central Europe and the determinants of their success. East European Politics and Societies 12, 472–499.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Pop-Eleches, G (2008) A party for all seasons: electoral adaptation of Romanian communist successor parties. Communist and Post-Communist Studies 41, 465–479.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Randall, V and Svåsand, L (2002) Political parties and democratic consolidation in Africa. Democratization 9(3), 30–52.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Riedl, RB (2014) Authoritarian Origins of Democratic Party Systems in Africa. New York: Cambridge University Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Rose, R, Mishler, W and Haerpfer, C (1998) Democracy and its Alternatives: Understanding Post-Communist Societies. Baltimore, MD: Johns Hopkins University Press.Google Scholar
Seligson, AL and Tucker, JA (2005) Feeding the hand that bit you: voting for ex-authoritarian rulers in Russia and Bolivia. Demokratizatsiya 13(1), 11–42.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Serra, G (2013) Demise and resurrection of a dominant party: understanding the PRI's comeback in Mexico. Journal of Politics in Latin America 3, 133–154.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Slater, D and Wong, J (2013) The strength to concede: ruling parties and democratization in developmental Asia. Perspectives on Politics 11(3), 717–733.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Svolik, M (2012) The Politics of Authoritarian Rule. New York: Cambridge University Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Tavits, M (2013) Post-Communist Democracies and Party Organization. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Tir, J et al. (1998) Territorial changes, 1816–1996: procedures and data. Conflict Management and Peace Science 16, 89–97.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Waller, M (1995) Adaptation of the former communist parties of East-Central Europe: a case of social-democratization? Party Politics 1(4), 473–490.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Wig, T, Hegre, H and Regan, P (2015) Updated data on institutions and elections 1960–2012: Presenting the IAEP dataset version 2.0. Research & Politics May: 1–11.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
World Bank (2015) Statistics retrieved 2016, from World Development Indicators Online. Available from http://www.worldbank.org/data.Google Scholar
Wright, J and Escribà-Folch, A (2012) Authoritarian institutions and regime survival: transitions to democracy and subsequent autocracy. British Journal of Political Science 42(2), 283–309.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Ziblatt, D (2017) Conservative Parties and the Birth of Democracy. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Supplementary material: Link

Miller Dataset

Dataset

https://doi.org/10.7910/DVN/E3NJN8
Link
Supplementary material: PDF

Miller supplementary material

Miller supplementary material 1

Download Miller supplementary material(PDF)
PDF 141.9 KB