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The end of the French primary? Measuring primary election impact on electoral performance in the 2017 French presidential election

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French Politics Aims and scope

Abstract

Primary elections have become an important aspect of the French party system. In the 2017 presidential elections, the process used by both the Socialist Party and the Republicans was more inclusive. However, this process may have entered a time of crisis. This article examines whether or not participation in the primaries and the level of competitiveness are associated with the results of the 2017 presidential elections, focusing on the similarities, differences, and effects in these two open selection processes.

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Notes

  1. Another assumption is that—more simply—primary elections lead to competition among weak candidates (see Banks and Kiewiet 1989).

  2. Primary elections function as a source of legitimacy and popularity and their adoption is more probable as a consequence of an electoral defeat or when an intra-party change is necessary (see Mikulska and Scarrow 2010; Scarrow 2001).

  3. In other countries, such as Mexico for example, researchers have also highlighted the idea that candidates selected through the primaries are ideologically more moderate than those selected within the party (see Bruhn 2013).

  4. In the 1980s, one of the first to introduce the concept of the primaries in France was Charles Pasqua, who proposed so-called “primaires à la française” within the then centre-right wing (cf. Charles Pasqua and Pierre Monzani, Petit Manuel de survie pour la droite. Les primaires à la française, Paris, Fayard, 2015). For a detailed analysis, see Actulité des primaires. Revue du Droit Public, Mai-Juin 2017, N° 3: 503–828.

  5. After the 2012 presidential elections, open primaries were used also in the 2014 municipal elections: the PS held primaries in five cities: Aix-en-Provence, Béziers, Boulogne-Billancourt, Le Havre and Marseille; the UMP organised primaries in Paris and Lyon.

  6. Another problem compared with the 2011 primary was the number of polling stations. Indeed, only 7208 polling stations were open during the primary, whilst in the 2011 primary there were 9425.

  7. For some years now, an attempt to standardise empirical studies on primaries has been made; this new approach should take into account the number of voters in the previous election in the ideological area of the promoters of the primaries. Indeed, to achieve this aim, the participation rate is calculated as the number of selectors as a proportion of the number of votes cast for the promoters' candidate at the previous presidential election.

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  1. University of Calabria, Via P. Bucci, Cubo 0, 87046, Arcavacata di Rende, CS, Italy

    Marino De Luca

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De Luca, M. The end of the French primary? Measuring primary election impact on electoral performance in the 2017 French presidential election. Fr Polit 16, 1–18 (2018). https://doi.org/10.1057/s41253-017-0055-4

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