Abstract
In everyday life, people frequently make decisions based on tacit or explicit forecasts about the emotional consequences associated with the possible choices. We investigated age differences in such forecasts and their accuracy by surveying voters about their expected and, subsequently, their actual emotional responses to the 2008 US presidential election. A sample of 762 Democratic and Republican voters aged 20 to 80 years participated in a web-based study; 346 could be re-contacted two days after the election. Older adults forecasted lower increases in high-arousal emotions (e.g., excitement after winning; anger after losing) and larger increases in low-arousal emotions (e.g., sluggishness after losing) than younger adults. Age differences in actual responses to the election were consistent with forecasts, albeit less pervasive. Additionally, among supporters of the winning candidate, but not among supporters of the losing candidate, forecasting accuracy was enhanced with age, suggesting a positivity effect in affective forecasting. These results add to emerging findings about the role of valence and arousal in emotional ageing and demonstrate age differences in affective forecasting about a real-world event with an emotionally charged outcome.
Acknowledgements
This research was supported by National Institute on Aging Grant R37 AG008816 awarded to LLC. SS was supported by a research fellowship from the German Research Foundation (DFG) and RM by a fellowship from the Portuguese Foundation for Science and Technology. Susanne Scheibe is now at Department of Psychology, University of Groningen, The Netherlands. Rui Mata is now at Department of Psychology, University Basel, Switzerland.
We thank Candice Lowdermilk and Hans van der Baan for their assistance in conducting the study.
Notes
1When adding interest in the election as a control variable to this and all following analyses, all interaction effects involving age remained robust.