Tambora and the mackerel year: Phenology and fisheries during an extreme climate event
Abstract
INTRODUCTION
A | Watershed | CACC (9,207 km2) | NCA (13,590 km2) | CB (2,448 km2) | |||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Time period |
Year 1800 (baseline) |
Historical events |
Dams (244) |
Census (91,684) |
Towns | Dams (92) |
Census (33,241) |
Towns | Dams (4) |
Census (5,311) |
Towns |
Embargo | 1804 | Fish inspection begins |
0 | 7 | 1 | 6 | 0 | 1 | |||
1805 | 0 | 9 | 2 | 5 | 0 | 1 | |||||
1806 | 1 | 7 | 2 | 5 | 0 | 1 | |||||
1807 | 1 | 7 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 1 | |||||
1808 | Jefferson’s Embargo |
1 | 6 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 1 | ||||
1809 | 1 | 9 | 2 | 5 | 0 | 1 | |||||
War of 1812 | 1810 | 2 | 118,785 | 8 | 2 | 44,486 | 8 | 0 | 9,353 | 1 | |
1811 | 5 | 8 | 2 | 7 | 0 | 1 | |||||
1812 | War of 1812 | 13 | 8 | 2 | 6 | 0 | 1 | ||||
1813 | War of 1812 | 14 | 8 | 2 | 7 | 0 | 1 | ||||
1814 | War of 1812 | 16 | 6 | 4 | 8 | 0 | 1 | ||||
1815 | Tambora; mackerel jig |
17 | 9 | 4 | 5 | 0 | 1 | ||||
Tambora | 1816 | Mackerel year | 19 | 8 | 5 | 6 | 0 | 1 | |||
1817 | 21 | 10 | 5 | 8 | 1 | 1 | |||||
1818 | 21 | 11 | 6 | 7 | 1 | 1 | |||||
1819 | 22 | 13 | 7 | 6 | 1 | 1 | |||||
1820 | Mackerel jig widespread in MA |
24 | 143,410 | 11 | 7 | 38,821 | 6 | 1 | 10,765 | 1 | |
B | Watershed | KEN (24,139 km2) | PEN (22,196 km2) | SC (3,885 km2) | |||||||
Time period |
Year 1800 (baseline) |
Historical events |
Dams (48) |
Census (5,615) |
Towns | Dams (30) |
Census (8,520) |
Towns | Dams (3) |
Census (562) |
Towns |
Embargo | 1804 | Fish inspection begins |
3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |||
1805 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |||||
1806 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |||||
1807 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | |||||
1808 | Jefferson’s Embargo |
3 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1 | ||||
1809 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1 | |||||
War of 1812 | 1810 | 8 | 9,094 | 2 | 3 | 15,374 | 5 | 2 | 1,883 | 2 | |
1811 | 9 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 1 | |||||
1812 | War of 1812 | 9 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 1 | ||||
1813 | War of 1812 | 9 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 1 | ||||
1814 | War of 1812 | 10 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 2 | |||||
1815 | Tambora; mackerel jig |
10 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 2 | 1 | ||||
Tambora | 1816 | Mackerel year | 10 | 4 | 3 | 8 | 2 | 1 | |||
1817 | 11 | 2 | 5 | 8 | 2 | 1 | |||||
1818 | 12 | 2 | 5 | 6 | 2 | 2 | |||||
1819 | 12 | 2 | 5 | 8 | 2 | 2 | |||||
1820 | Mackerel jig widespread in MA |
12 | 13,879 | 4 | 7 | 17,754 | 7 | 2 | 3,785 | 2 |
RESULTS
Effects of anthropogenic pressures and Tambora on fish communities
Anthropogenic pressures
Tambora’s effects
A | Embargo | |||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Anadromous | Pelagic | Dams | Towns | Yearly °C | ||
Anadromous | Correlation | 1 | 0.8144 | 0.2144 | 0.6175 | −0.59 |
Signif prob. | 0.0485 | 0.6834 | 0.1915 | 0.2177 | ||
Spearman | ||||||
Prob> | ||||||
Pelagic | Correlation | 1 | 0.1051 | 0.1269 | −0.5616 | |
Signif prob. | 0.8429 | 0.8106 | 0.2416 | |||
Spearman | 0.8857 | |||||
Prob> | 0.0188 | |||||
Dams | Correlation | 1 | 0.1188 | −0.8518 | ||
Signif prob. | 0.8266 | 0.0313 | ||||
Spearman | 0.4638 | 0.2319 | ||||
Prob> | 0.3542 | 0.6584 | ||||
Towns | Correlation | 1 | −0.2598 | |||
Signif prob. | 0.619 | |||||
Spearman | 0.4414 | 0.1177 | 0.0149 | |||
Prob> | 0.3809 | 0.8243 | 0.9776 | |||
Yearly °C | Correlation | 1 | ||||
Signif prob. | ||||||
Spearman | −0.7143 | −0.6571 | −0.8407 | −0.0294 | ||
Prob> | 0.1108 | 0.1562 | 0.0361 | 0.9559 | ||
B | War of 1812 | |||||
Anadromous | Pelagic | Dams | Towns | Yearly °C | ||
Anadromous | Correlation | 1 | 0.8827 | −0.6079 | 0.4507 | 0.1714 |
Signif prob. | 0.0198 | 0.2004 | 0.3698 | 0.7454 | ||
Spearman | ||||||
Prob> | ||||||
Pelagic | Correlation | 1 | −0.485 | 0.6999 | 0.3125 | |
Signif prob. | 0.3295 | 0.1216 | 0.5465 | |||
Spearman | 0.7714 | |||||
Prob> | 0.0724 | |||||
Dams | Correlation | 1 | −0.4552 | −0.7516 | ||
Signif prob. | 0.3679 | 0.0849 | ||||
Spearman | −0.6571 | −0.3143 | ||||
Prob> | 0.1562 | 0.5411 | ||||
Towns | Correlation | 1 | −0.4565 | |||
Signif prob. | 0.0655 | |||||
Spearman | 0.5218 | 0.7535 | −0.4058 | |||
Prob> | 0.2883 | 0.0835 | 0.4247 | |||
Yearly °C | Correlation | 1 | ||||
Signif prob. | ||||||
Spearman | 0.1429 | 0.2571 | −0.6571 | 0.3479 | ||
Prob> | 0.7872 | 0.6228 | 0.1562 | 0.4993 | ||
C | Tambora | |||||
Anadromous | Pelagic | Dams | Towns | Yearly °C | ||
Anadromous | Correlation | 1 | −0.9079 | −0.933 | −0.6847 | −0.8584 |
Signif prob. | 0.0331 | 0.0206 | 0.2022 | 0.0626 | ||
Spearman | ||||||
Prob> | ||||||
Pelagic | Correlation | 1 | 0.9305 | 0.8644 | 0.9715 | |
Signif prob. | 0.0218 | 0.0587 | 0.0057 | |||
Spearman | −1 | |||||
Prob> | <0.0001 | |||||
Dams | Correlation | 1 | 0.7941 | 0.8392 | ||
Signif prob. | 0.1086 | 0.0755 | ||||
Spearman | −1 | 1 | ||||
Prob> | <0.0001 | <0.0001 | ||||
Towns | Correlation | 1 | 0.7674 | |||
Signif prob. | 0.1299 | |||||
Spearman | −0.8 | 0.8 | 0.8 | |||
Prob> | 0.1041 | 0.1041 | 0.1041 | |||
Yearly °C | Correlation | 1 | ||||
Signif prob. | ||||||
Spearman | −0.9 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 0.6 | ||
Prob> | 0.0374 | 0.0374 | 0.0374 | 0.2848 |
Fish, phenology, and Tambora
Year | Biological characteristics | Average daily temperatures | Extreme daily temperatures | |||||||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Species | Arrival (date) |
Spatial flexibility (rank) |
Total residence |
Average temperature (°C) |
Maximum differential (°C) |
No. of suitable days |
No. of suitable intervals |
Longest interval |
Average interval length |
Minimum temperature (°C) |
Maximum temperature (°C) |
No. of days < minimum tolerance |
No. of days > maximum tolerance |
No. of suitable days |
No. of suitable intervals |
Longest interval |
Average interval length |
|
A. Adult | ||||||||||||||||||
1814 | Alewives | 91 | 1 | 75 | 13.84 | 18.34 | 51 | 6 | 23 | 8.5 | 1.11 | 33.89 | 2 | 9 | 32 | 10 | 9 | 3.2 |
1815 | Alewives | 91 | 1 | 75 | 11.3 | 15 | 56 | 7 | 24 | 8 | −1.11 | 31.11 | 13 | 6 | 29 | 15 | 5 | 1.93 |
1816 | Alewives | 91 | 1 | 75 | 11.07 | 20.56 | 56 | 10 | 12 | 5.5 | −1.67 | 32.78 | 13 | 3 | 33 | 13 | 9 | 2.54 |
1817 | Alewives | 91 | 1 | 75 | 11.82 | 20.56 | 61 | 7 | 20 | 8.57 | −1.11 | 30.56 | 7 | 1 | 32 | 12 | 6 | 2.67 |
1818 | Alewives | 91 | 1 | 75 | 11.65 | 14.45 | 50 | 6 | 43 | 8.67 | 0 | 31.67 | 16 | 14 | 36 | 9 | 12 | 4 |
1814 | Herring | 196 | 3 | 109 | 17.52 | 16.11 | 58 | 11 | 17 | 5.27 | −0.56 | 34.44 | 11 | 81 | 18 | 7 | 5 | 2.57 |
1815 | Herring | 196 | 3 | 109 | 17.18 | 18.89 | 49 | 13 | 22 | 3.77 | −3.33 | 37.78 | 8 | 77 | 24 | 9 | 5 | 2.67 |
1816 | Herring | 196 | 3 | 109 | 16.58 | 16.67 | 62 | 7 | 52 | 8.86 | 2.22 | 35.56 | 6 | 75 | 29 | 11 | 7 | 2.64 |
1817 | Herring | 196 | 3 | 109 | 17.39 | 16.11 | 44 | 8 | 21 | 5.5 | −3.33 | 36.67 | 11 | 81 | 18 | 10 | 5 | 1.8 |
1818 | Herring | 196 | 3 | 109 | 17.7 | 15 | 50 | 7 | 27 | 7.14 | −1.11 | 34.44 | 7 | 84 | 19 | 12 | 4 | 1.55 |
1814 | Mackerel | 121 | 4 | 198 | 16.9 | 16.11 | 123 | 26 | 25 | 4.77 | −3.89 | 34.44 | 27 | 114 | 61 | 22 | 15 | 2.77 |
1815 | Mackerel | 121 | 4 | 198 | 16.74 | 18.89 | 114 | 28 | 19 | 3.97 | −5 | 37.78 | 36 | 120 | 49 | 23 | 6 | 2.13 |
1816 | Mackerel | 121 | 4 | 198 | 15.73 | 20.56 | 147 | 23 | 22 | 6.54 | −1.11 | 38.89 | 38 | 104 | 63 | 29 | 7 | 2.14 |
1817 | Mackerel | 121 | 4 | 198 | 16.59 | 16.11 | 123 | 22 | 25 | 5.64 | −3.33 | 36.67 | 36 | 120 | 47 | 22 | 7 | 2.14 |
1818 | Mackerel | 121 | 4 | 198 | 17.51 | 15 | 114 | 18 | 26 | 6.39 | −1.11 | 37.78 | 25 | 123 | 58 | 27 | 5 | 2.15 |
1814 | Shad | 166 | 1 | 47 | 21.41 | 12.77 | 27 | 6 | 14 | 4.33 | 9.44 | 34.44 | 0 | 6 | 7 | 3 | 5 | 2.33 |
1815 | Shad | 166 | 1 | 47 | 24.01 | 18.89 | 15 | 7 | 5 | 2.29 | 13.89 | 37.78 | 0 | 17 | 5 | 5 | 1 | 1 |
1816 | Shad | 166 | 1 | 47 | 19.49 | 15 | 39 | 5 | 20 | 6.4 | 10 | 38.89 | 0 | 3 | 12 | 5 | 5 | 2.4 |
1817 | Shad | 166 | 1 | 47 | 21.07 | 14.44 | 29 | 8 | 11 | 4.25 | 8.89 | 36.67 | 0 | 5 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 1.67 |
1818 | Shad | 166 | 1 | 47 | 23.55 | 13.89 | 18 | 10 | 8 | 2 | 13.33 | 37.78 | 0 | 15 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 1.5 |
B. Spawning | ||||||||||||||||||
1814 | Alewives | 91 | 1 | 75 | 13.84 | 18.34 | 48 | 10 | 17 | 4.80 | 1.11 | 33.89 | 36 | 1 | 20 | 9 | 10 | 2.22 |
1815 | Alewives | 91 | 1 | 75 | 11.30 | 15.00 | 36 | 11 | 12 | 3.27 | −1.11 | 31.11 | 47 | 1 | 16 | 8 | 9 | 2.00 |
1816 | Alewives | 91 | 1 | 75 | 11.07 | 20.56 | 37 | 15 | 6 | 2.53 | −1.67 | 32.78 | 59 | 0 | 13 | 11 | 2 | 1.18 |
1817 | Alewives | 91 | 1 | 75 | 11.82 | 20.56 | 46 | 8 | 18 | 5.88 | −1.11 | 30.56 | 46 | 0 | 17 | 11 | 3 | 1.55 |
1818 | Alewives | 91 | 1 | 75 | 11.65 | 14.45 | 31 | 11 | 6 | 3.09 | 0.00 | 31.67 | 50 | 0 | 11 | 6 | 3 | 1.57 |
1814 | Herring | 196 | 3 | 109 | 17.52 | 16.11 | 69 | 11 | 28 | 6.27 | 9.44 | 34.44 | 28 | 56 | 11 | 13 | 5 | 2.08 |
1815 | Herring | 196 | 3 | 109 | 17.18 | 18.89 | 76 | 9 | 23 | 8.44 | 13.89 | 37.78 | 27 | 56 | 9 | 17 | 4 | 1.63 |
1816 | Herring | 196 | 3 | 109 | 16.58 | 16.67 | 79 | 12 | 22 | 6.42 | 10.00 | 38.89 | 27 | 50 | 12 | 14 | 12 | 2.64 |
1817 | Herring | 196 | 3 | 109 | 17.39 | 16.11 | 63 | 17 | 17 | 3.82 | 8.89 | 36.67 | 31 | 64 | 17 | 10 | 4 | 1.50 |
1818 | Herring | 196 | 3 | 109 | 17.70 | 15.00 | 76 | 12 | 32 | 6.33 | 13.33 | 37.78 | 27 | 60 | 12 | 13 | 5 | 2.17 |
1814 | Mackerel | 121 | 4 | 198 | 16.90 | 16.11 | 41 | 17 | 8 | 2.41 | −3.89 | 34.44 | 35 | 167 | 6 | 6 | 1 | 1.00 |
1815 | Mackerel | 121 | 4 | 198 | 16.74 | 18.89 | 44 | 15 | 7 | 2.75 | −5 | 37.78 | 45 | 158 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 1.00 |
1816 | Mackerel | 121 | 4 | 198 | 15.73 | 20.56 | 60 | 19 | 10 | 3.16 | −1.11 | 38.89 | 46 | 160 | 11 | 9 | 2 | 1.22 |
1817 | Mackerel | 121 | 4 | 198 | 16.59 | 16.11 | 43 | 22 | 6 | 1.95 | −3.33 | 36.67 | 43 | 161 | 5 | 5 | 1 | 1.00 |
1818 | Mackerel | 121 | 4 | 198 | 17.51 | 15.00 | 48 | 20 | 8 | 2.40 | −1.11 | 37.78 | 37 | 171 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 1.25 |
1814 | Shad | 166 | 1 | 47 | 21.41 | 12.77 | 5 | 2 | 4 | 2.5 | −0.56 | 34.44 | 4 | 29 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
1815 | Shad | 166 | 1 | 47 | 24.01 | 18.89 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.0 | −3.33 | 37.78 | 0 | 40 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
1816 | Shad | 166 | 1 | 47 | 19.49 | 15.00 | 13 | 6 | 3 | 2.2 | 2.22 | 35.56 | 6 | 17 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
1817 | Shad | 166 | 1 | 47 | 21.07 | 14.44 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 1.3 | −3.33 | 36.67 | 2 | 27 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
1818 | Shad | 166 | 1 | 47 | 23.55 | 13.89 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 1.5 | −1.11 | 34.44 | 0 | 40 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Adult temperature tolerances | Spawning temperature tolerances | |||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Year | Alewives | Shad | Mackerel | Herring | Number of extremes |
Year | Alewives | Shad | Mackerel | Herring | Number of extremes |
|
All conditions (daily averages and extremes) |
1814 | 2.41 | 2.29 | 2.41 | 2.41 | 1 | 1814 | 2.53 | 2.06 | 2.06 | 2.94 | 2 |
1815 | 2.47 | 2.12 | 2.29 | 2.53 | 1 | 1815 | 2.59 | 1.65 | 2.24 | 2.88 | 4 | |
1816 | 1.94 | 2.47 | 2.24 | 3.00 | 5 | 1816 | 2.00 | 2.06 | 2.35 | 3.12 | 4 | |
1817 | 2.47 | 2.12 | 2.53 | 2.29 | 1 | 1817 | 2.53 | 1.88 | 2.18 | 2.94 | 2 | |
1818 | 2.82 | 2.18 | 2.24 | 2.53 | 2 | 1818 | 2.35 | 2.00 | 2.24 | 3.06 | 1 | |
Daily averages | 1814 | 2.00 | 2.00 | 2.78 | 2.78 | 0 | 1814 | 2.00 | 2.33 | 2.33 | 3.22 | 2 |
1815 | 2.33 | 1.78 | 2.56 | 2.56 | 3 | 1815 | 2.00 | 1.56 | 2.44 | 3.33 | 3 | |
1816 | 1.33 | 2.33 | 2.67 | 3.22 | 5 | 1816 | 1.56 | 2.11 | 2.56 | 3.33 | 4 | |
1817 | 2.00 | 1.89 | 2.89 | 2.67 | 2 | 1817 | 2.22 | 2.11 | 2.33 | 3.00 | 3 | |
1818 | 2.44 | 2.00 | 2.44 | 2.89 | 3 | 1818 | 1.89 | 2.11 | 2.44 | 3.11 | 1 | |
Daily extremes | 1814 | 2.33 | 2.42 | 2.33 | 2.33 | 2 | 1814 | 2.50 | 1.92 | 2.25 | 2.75 | 2 |
1815 | 2.25 | 2.17 | 2.25 | 2.58 | 2 | 1815 | 2.67 | 1.67 | 2.25 | 2.50 | 4 | |
1816 | 2.17 | 2.42 | 2.08 | 2.83 | 5 | 1816 | 2.08 | 2.00 | 2.33 | 2.92 | 2 | |
1817 | 2.42 | 2.25 | 2.42 | 2.25 | 1 | 1817 | 2.33 | 1.75 | 2.33 | 2.92 | 2 | |
1818 | 2.67 | 2.25 | 2.25 | 2.33 | 2 | 1818 | 2.42 | 1.92 | 2.25 | 2.92 | 2 |
Human adaptation to Tambora
Fisheries, phenology, and watersheds
DISCUSSION
MATERIALS AND METHODS
Study design
Data acquisition and organization
CAS theory
Statistical analyses
Historical context of New England fisheries
Fish export (see section S1 for “Fishing effort” and “Market prices”)
FIR data
Fish life histories
Watersheds
The spreading human footprint
Towns
Dams
Acknowledgments
Supplementary Material
Summary
Resources
- Download
- 969.01 KB
REFERENCES AND NOTES
(0)eLetters
eLetters is a forum for ongoing peer review. eLetters are not edited, proofread, or indexed, but they are screened. eLetters should provide substantive and scholarly commentary on the article. Embedded figures cannot be submitted, and we discourage the use of figures within eLetters in general. If a figure is essential, please include a link to the figure within the text of the eLetter. Please read our Terms of Service before submitting an eLetter.
Log In to Submit a ResponseNo eLetters have been published for this article yet.
Information & Authors
Information
Published In
January 2017
Copyright
Submission history
Keywords
Acknowledgments
Authors
Funding Information
Metrics & Citations
Metrics
Article Usage
Altmetrics
Citations
Cite as
- Karen E. Alexander et al.
Export citation
Select the format you want to export the citation of this publication.
Cited by
- From folkloric belief to fishery bycatch: contrasting cryptozoological and euhemeristic interpretations of Australian sea serpents, Anthropozoologica, 57, 3, (2022).https://doi.org/10.5252/anthropozoologica2022v57a3
- The potential of historical ecology to aid understanding of human–ocean interactions throughout the Anthropocene, Journal of Fish Biology, 101, 2, (351-364), (2022).https://doi.org/10.1111/jfb.15000
- A New Ocean State After Nuclear War, AGU Advances, 3, 4, (2022).https://doi.org/10.1029/2021AV000610
- Phenological Variation in Spring Migration Timing of Adult Alewife in Coastal Massachusetts, Marine and Coastal Fisheries, 14, 2, (2022).https://doi.org/10.1002/mcf2.10198
- The Monstrous Anthropocene: Imaginary ‘Sea Serpents’ from the ‘Dark Continent’ Reveal an Earlier Baseline for Real Environmental Impacts to African Marine Life, Anthropocenes – Human, Inhuman, Posthuman, 2, 1, (2021).https://doi.org/10.16997/ahip.931
- Contrasting fishing effort reduction and habitat connectivity as management strategies to promote alewife ( Alosa pseudoharengus ) recovery using an ecosystem model , Limnology and Oceanography, 67, S1, (2021).https://doi.org/10.1002/lno.11871
- Historical anecdotes of fishing pressure: Misconstrued “sea serpent” sightings provide evidence for antecedent entanglement of marine biota in the British Isles, Fish and Fisheries, 22, 1, (54-71), (2020).https://doi.org/10.1111/faf.12505
- Something old, something new: Historical perspectives provide lessons for blue growth agendas, Fish and Fisheries, 21, 4, (774-796), (2020).https://doi.org/10.1111/faf.12460
- Marine wild-capture fisheries after nuclear war, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 117, 47, (29748-29758), (2020).https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2008256117
- Alewife (Alosa pseudoharengus) spawning and nursery areas in a sentinel estuary: spatial and temporal patterns, Environmental Biology of Fishes, 103, 11, (1419-1436), (2020).https://doi.org/10.1007/s10641-020-01032-0
- See more
View Options
View options
PDF format
Download this article as a PDF file
Download PDFCheck Access
Log in to view the full text
AAAS login provides access to Science for AAAS Members, and access to other journals in the Science family to users who have purchased individual subscriptions.
- Become a AAAS Member
- Activate your AAAS ID
- Purchase Access to Other Journals in the Science Family
- Account Help
More options
Register for free to read this article
As a service to the community, this article is available for free. Login or register for free to read this article.