Abstract
Previous research has shown that nonviolent resistance (NVR) campaigns are beneficial for democratization. However, research to date has not considered whether nonviolent revolutions succeed long term in bringing about democratic consolidation. In this paper, I address this gap by analyzing the effect of NVR on democratic consolidation, using data on Huntington’s consolidation criteria of two peaceful turnovers of power. The results suggest that initiating a democratic transition through NVR is not necessarily beneficial for achieving the first peaceful turnover of power. However, given that a democratic regime achieved a successful first turnover of power, NVR substantially increases the probability of completing democratic consolidation through a second peaceful turnover of power.
References
Bayer, M., Bethke, F. S. & Lambach, D. (2016). The democratic dividend of nonviolent resistance. Journal of Peace Research, 53, 758–771.10.1177/0022343316658090Search in Google Scholar
Boix, C., Miller, M. & Rosato, S. (2013). A complete data set of political regimes, 1800–2007. Comparative Political Studies, 46, 1523–1554.10.1177/0010414012463905Search in Google Scholar
Buis, M. L. (2013). SEQLOGIT: Stata module to fit a sequential logit model (Statistical Software Components.) (S456843)Boston: Boston College, Department of Economics.Search in Google Scholar
Celestino, M. R. & Gleditsch, K. S. (2013). Fresh carnations or all thorn, no rose? Nonviolent campaigns and transitions in autocracies. Journal of Peace Research, 50, 385–400.10.1177/0022343312469979Search in Google Scholar
Chenoweth, E. & Stephan, M. J. (2011). Why civil resistance works: The strategic logic of nonviolent conflict. New York, NY: Columbia University Press.Search in Google Scholar
Chenoweth, E. & Lewis, O. A. (2013). Unpacking nonviolent campaigns: Introducing the NAVCO 2.0 Dataset. Journal of Peace Research, 50, 415–423.10.1177/0022343312471551Search in Google Scholar
Della Porta, D. & Diani, M. (2006). Social movements: An introduction. Malden: Blackwell.Search in Google Scholar
Geddes, B., Wright, J. & Frantz, E. (2014). Autocratic breakdown and regime transitions: A new data set. Perspectives on Politics, 12, 313–331.10.1017/S1537592714000851Search in Google Scholar
Guo, S. & Stradiotto, G. A. (2014). Democratic transitions: Modes and outcomes. New York, NY: Routledge.Search in Google Scholar
Huntington, S. P. (1968). Political order in changing societies. New Haven: Yale University Press.Search in Google Scholar
Sharp, G. (2005). Waging nonviolent struggle. Boston, MA: Albert Einstein Institution.Search in Google Scholar
Teorell, J., Coppedge, M., Gerring, J. & Lindberg, S. (2016). Measuring electoral democracy with V-Dem data: Introducing a New Polyarchy Index Varieties of Democracy Institute: Working Paper, 25.10.2139/ssrn.2740935Search in Google Scholar
Ulfelder, J. (2012). Democracy/autocracy data set. Harvard Dataverse, . V1, hdl:1902.1/18836.Search in Google Scholar
Supplemental Material
The online version of this article offers supplementary material (DOI: https://doi.org/10.1515/peps-2017-0022).
©2017 Walter de Gruyter GmbH, Berlin/Boston
