Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
216 AM EDT Sun Apr 28 2024

Valid 12Z Sun Apr 28 2024 - 12Z Tue Apr 30 2024

...More rounds of excessive rainfall and severe weather expected to push
eastward into the Lower Mississippi Valley today and Monday...

...High-elevation snow is forecast to spread inland from the Pacific
Northwest into the Northern Rockies on Monday...

...Warmer than average temperatures spreads from Midwest into Mid-Atlantic
today while well below average temperatures shift from the Four Corners
and Rockies into the Northern Plains...

More active and unsettled weather is forecast to continue across the
mid-section of the country through the remainder of the weekend into
Monday.  Multiple disturbances embedded within a slow-moving upper-level
trough responsible for the active weather are currently developing another
low pressure system over the Central Plains. Today, the main area of
thunderstorms will push farther eastward toward the Mid and Lower
Mississippi Valley with a slightly lower threat of severe weather than
Saturday. Meanwhile, the heaviest rains should push farther southeast into
the ArkLaTex region as the trailing cold front associated with the low
pressure system begins to weaken. The center of the low is forecast to
track northeast across the Central Plains on Sunday, reaching into the
upper Midwest on Monday. Strong to locally severe thunderstorms can be
expected to extend northeast across these areas including the Midwest
ahead of a warm front to the east of the low pressure center.  Meanwhile,
the threat of heavy rain will push farther southeast into the Lower to
Mid-Mississippi Valley as the cold front pushes eastward. There's are
Slight Risk (at least 15%) of Excessive Rainfall leading to Flash Flooding
over portions of the eastern Southern Plains and Lower Mississippi Valley
today and extending into just the Lower Mississippi Valley/central Gulf
Coast on Monday. The Storm Prediction Center issued an Enhanced Risk
(level 3/5) of Severe Thunderstorms across portions of the eastern
Southern Plains and Middle/Lower Mississippi Valley today.

Elsewhere, another low pressure system will begin to move away from the
Great Lakes into Canada with scattered showers ending over the Upper Great
Lakes but continuing from the Lower Great Lakes into New England.  Strong
southerly flow behind a high pressure system will bring very warm air
northward into the East Coast through the next couple of days with high
temperatures climbing well into the 80s to possibly near 90 degrees for
the interior Mid-Atlantic. These temperatures will be in contrast to the
cool temperatures expected for the Pacific Northwest by Monday as the next
upper-level trough from the Pacific is forecast to push inland.  This
trough will bring widespread high-elevation snow and lower elevation rain
across the Pacific Northwest toward the Northern Rockies on Monday with
increasingly windy conditions as a low pressure system begins to develop
over the Northern High Plains into southern Canada.

Kebede/Kong


Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php