Future projections of precipitation, surface temperatures and drought events over the monsoon transitional zone in China from bias-corrected CMIP6 models
Jinling Piao
Center for Monsoon System Research, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China
Contribution: Investigation, Methodology, Validation, Writing - original draft, Writing - review & editing
Search for more papers by this authorCorresponding Author
Wen Chen
Center for Monsoon System Research, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China
College of Earth and Planetary Sciences, University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China
Correspondence
Wen Chen, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100190, China,
Email: [email protected]
Contribution: Conceptualization, Investigation, Methodology, Supervision, Writing - review & editing
Search for more papers by this authorLin Wang
Key Laboratory of Regional Climate-Environment for Temperate East Asia, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China
Contribution: Formal analysis, Investigation, Validation, Writing - original draft
Search for more papers by this authorShangfeng Chen
Center for Monsoon System Research, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China
College of Earth and Planetary Sciences, University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China
Contribution: Formal analysis, Investigation, Methodology, Writing - original draft
Search for more papers by this authorJinling Piao
Center for Monsoon System Research, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China
Contribution: Investigation, Methodology, Validation, Writing - original draft, Writing - review & editing
Search for more papers by this authorCorresponding Author
Wen Chen
Center for Monsoon System Research, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China
College of Earth and Planetary Sciences, University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China
Correspondence
Wen Chen, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100190, China,
Email: [email protected]
Contribution: Conceptualization, Investigation, Methodology, Supervision, Writing - review & editing
Search for more papers by this authorLin Wang
Key Laboratory of Regional Climate-Environment for Temperate East Asia, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China
Contribution: Formal analysis, Investigation, Validation, Writing - original draft
Search for more papers by this authorShangfeng Chen
Center for Monsoon System Research, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China
College of Earth and Planetary Sciences, University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China
Contribution: Formal analysis, Investigation, Methodology, Writing - original draft
Search for more papers by this authorFunding information: Jiangsu Collaborative Innovation Center for Climate Change; National Natural Science Foundation of China
Abstract
Bias-corrected monthly precipitation and surface temperature datasets are constructed for the monsoon transitional zone (MTZ) in China during 1965–2100 based on 21 coupled climate models from phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) using the equi-ratio and equidistant cumulative distribution function quantile-based mapping methods (equi-ratio cumulative distribution function [ERCDF] and equidistant cumulative distribution function [EDCDF]), respectively. The efficiencies of the two methods are verified via cross-validation by the jack-knife method, and the biases are remarkably reduced compared to those of the raw model outputs. Then, the bias-corrected model outputs are applied to future projections of precipitation, surface temperatures and drought events under the medium (SSP2-4.5) and high (SSP5-8.5) shared socioeconomic pathway scenarios. The obtained results present pronounced increases in both the projected annual mean precipitation and temperature fields for the model ensemble mean. In accompany, the MTZ is predicted to become drier in the three future periods; this result was attributed to the dramatic increases in semiarid events and to the decreases in humid events. The drought tension showed more rapid development under SSP585 than under the other scenario, with comparable occurrence frequencies of relatively wet and dry events in the long-term period, posing a serious threat to regional sustainable development.
CONFLICT OF INTEREST
The authors declare no potential conflicts of interest.
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