Abstract
Climate change has played a crucial role in the subrogation of Chinese dynasties. In particular, the Ming-Qing transition coincided with the rapid decrease in precipitation and the sharp deterioration of agroecological conditions in northern China under the cold conditions brought on by the Little Ice Age. Here, we present a new precipitation reconstruction (June-April) for northern Chinese Loess Plateau since 1590 CE. The reconstruction was derived from a tree-ring width chronology of Platycladus orientalis, and made it possible to quantitatively assess the period of megadroughts during the late Ming Dynasty, with high resolution. Our analysis showed that these extreme drought events have been unprecedented in China for the last 500 years, and precipitation variation could be linked to ENSO activities. The environmental imbalance caused by these megadroughts magnified the negative impacts of the climate on agriculture and society, an important reason for considering these phenomena as catalysts for the demise of the Ming Dynasty.
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This work was supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (32061123008) and the National Key R&D Program of China (2018YFA0606401).
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Conceptualization: FC and HM.
Methodology, validation, investigation, resources, writing—review and editing, and visualization: FC, HM, XZ, FR, HZ, YC, SW, and WY.
Formal analysis and data curation: FC, WY, and XZ.
Writing—original draft preparation: FC.
Supervision: FC and HM.
Project administration and funding acquisition: FC.
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Highlights
• A tree-ring chronology has been used to reconstruct total June-April precipitation for the northern Chinese Loess Plateau since 1590 CE.
• The ENSO anomaly under the cold conditions during the Little Ice Age may cause extreme droughts toward the end of the Ming Dynasty.
• The ecological imbalance caused by climate change has played a crucial role in the transition between the Ming and Qing dynasties.
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Chen, F., Martín, H., Zhao, X. et al. Abnormally low precipitation-induced ecological imbalance contributed to the fall of the Ming Dynasty: new evidence from tree rings. Climatic Change 173, 13 (2022). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-022-03406-y
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-022-03406-y