Potential impact of climate change on marine export production
Laurent Bopp
Search for more papers by this authorPatrick Monfray
Search for more papers by this authorOlivier Aumont
Search for more papers by this authorJean-Louis Dufresne
Search for more papers by this authorHervé Le Treut
Search for more papers by this authorGurvan Madec
Search for more papers by this authorLaurent Terray
Search for more papers by this authorJames C. Orr
Search for more papers by this authorLaurent Bopp
Search for more papers by this authorPatrick Monfray
Search for more papers by this authorOlivier Aumont
Search for more papers by this authorJean-Louis Dufresne
Search for more papers by this authorHervé Le Treut
Search for more papers by this authorGurvan Madec
Search for more papers by this authorLaurent Terray
Search for more papers by this authorJames C. Orr
Search for more papers by this authorAbstract
Future climate change will affect marine productivity, as well as other many components of Earth system. We have investigated the response of marine productivity to global warming with two different ocean biogeochemical schemes and two different atmosphere-ocean coupled general circulation models (GCM). Both coupled GCMs were used without flux correction to simulate climate response to increased greenhouse gases (+1% CO2/yr for 80 years). At 2×CO2, increased stratification leads to both reduced nutrient supply and increased light efficiency. Both effects drive a reduction in marine export production (−6%), although regionally changes can be both negative and positive (from −15% zonal average in the tropics to +10% in the Southern Ocean). Both coupled models and both biogeochemical schemes simulate a poleward shift of marine production due mainly to a longer growing season at high latitudes. At low latitudes, the effect of reduced upwelling prevails. The resulting reduction in marine productivity, and other marine resources, could become detectable in the near future, if appropriate long-term observing systems are implemented.
References
- Anderson, L., J. Sarmiento, Global ocean phosphate and oxygen simulations, Global Biogeochem. Cycles, 9, 621–636, 1995.
- Antoine, D., J. M. André, A. Morel, Oceanic primary production, 2, Estimation at global scale from satellite (coastal zone color scanner) chlorophyll, Global Biogeochem. Cycles, 10, 57–69, 1996.
- Arrigo, K., D. Robinson, D. Worthen, R. Dunbar, G. DiTullio, M. VanWoert, M. P. Lizotte, Phytoplankton community structure and the drawdown of nutrients and CO2 in the Southern Ocean, Science, 283, 365–367, 1999.
- Aumont, O., Étude du cycle naturel du carbone dans un modèle 3D de l'océan mondial, Ph.D. thesis,Univ. Pierre et Marie Curie,Paris,1998.
- Aumont, O., J. Orr, P. Monfray, G. Madec, E. Maier-Reimer, Nutrient trapping in the equatorial Pacific: the ocean circulation solution, Global Biogeochem. Cycles, 13, 351–369, 1999.
- Aumont, O., S. Belviso, P. Monfray, Dimethylsulfoniopropionate (DMSP) and dimethylsulfide (DMS) sea surface distributions simulated from a global 3-D ocean carbon cycle model, J. of Geophys. Res., 2000.
- Balkanski, Y., P. Monfray, M. Battle, M. Heinmann, Ocean primary production derived from satellite data: An evaluation with atmospheric oxygen measurements, Global Biogeochem. Cycles, 13, 257–271, 1999.
- Barthelet, P., et al., Simulations couplées globales des changements climatiques associés à une augmentation de la teneur atmosphérique en CO2, C. R. Acad. Sci. Paris, 326, 677–684, 1998a.
- Barthelet, P., L. Terray, S. Valcke, Transient CO2 experiment using the ARPEGE/OPAICE non-flux corrected coupled model, Geophys. Res. Lett., 25, 2277–2280, 1998b.
- Beckmann, A., R. Döscher, A method for improved representation of dense water spreading over topography in geopotential-coordinate models, J. Phys. Oceanogr., 27, 581–591, 1997.
- Berger, W. H., G. Wefer, Flux of biogenous materials to the sea floor: Open questions, Use and Misuse of Seafloor K. Hsü, J. Thiede, John Wiley, New-York, 1991.
- Blanke, B., P. Delecluse, Low frequency variability of the tropical Atlantic ocean simulated by a general circulation model with mixed layer physics, J. Phys. Oceanogr., 23, 1038–1053, 1993.
- Coale, K., et al., A massive phytoplankton bloom induced by an ecosystem-scale iron fertilization experiment in the equatorial Pacific Ocean, Nature, 383, 495–501, 1996.
- Deque, M., C. Dreveton, A. Braun, A. Cariolle, The climate version of ARPEGE/IFS: a contribution to the French community climate modelling, Clim. Dyn., 10, 249–266, 1994.
- Doney, S. C., D. M. Glover, R. G. Najjar, A new coupled one-dimensional biological-physical model for the upper ocean: Applications to the JGOFS Bermuda Atlantic Time-series Study (BATS) site, Deep Sea Res., 43, 591–624, 1996.
- Dugdale, R., F. Wilkerson, Silicate regulation of new production in the equatorial Pacific upwelling, Nature, 391, 270–273, 1998.
- Filiberti, M.-A., J.-L. Dufresne, J.-Y. Grandpeix, Igloo sea-ice model version 1.0, Notes techniques du pole de modelisation, Institut Pierre-Simon Laplace, Paris, France, 1999.
- Frost, B. W., Grazing control of phytoplankton stock in the open subarctic Pacific Ocean: A model assessing the role of mesozooplankton, particularly the large calanoid copepodes Neocalanus spp., Mar. Ecol. Prog. Ser., 39, 49–68, 1987.
- Gabric, A. J., P. H. Whetton, R. Boers, G. P. Ayers, The impact of simulated climate change on the air-sea flux of dimethylsulphide in the subantarctic southern ocean, Tellus, Ser. B, 50B, 388–399, 1998.
- Gent, P. R., J. Willebrand, T. J. McDougall, J. C. McWilliams, Parameterizing eddy-induced tracer transports in ocean circulation models, J. Phys. Oceanogr., 25, 463–474, 1995.
- Guilyardi, E., G. Madec, Performance of OPA/ARPEGE-T21 global ocean-atmosphere coupled model, Clim. Dyn., 13, 149–165, 1997.
- , Climate Change 1995, The Science of Climate Change J. Houghton, L. Meira Filho, B. Callander, N. Harris, A. Kattenberg, K. Maskell, Cambridge Univ. Press, New York, 1996.
- Jahnke, R. A., The global ocean flux of particulate organic carbon: Areal distribution and magnitude, Global Biogeochem. Cycles, 10, 71–88, 1996.
- Joos, F., G.-K. Plattner, T. F. Stocker, O. M. Schmittner, A. Schmittner, Global warming and marine carbon cycle feedbacks on future atmospheric CO2, Science, 284, 464–467, 1999.
- Lazar, A., G. Madec, P. Delecluse, A rationalization of the Veronis upwelling/downwelling system and its sensitivity to mixing parameterizations in an idealized OGCM, J. Phys. Oceanogr., 2001.
- Le Quéré, C., J. C. Orr, P. Monfray, O. Aumont, G. Madec, Interannual variability of the oceanic sink of CO2 from 1979 through 1997, Global Biogeochem. Cycles, 14, 1247–1265, 2000.
- Levitus, S., Climatological atlas of the world ocean Prof. Pap., 13, Natl. Oceanic and Atmos. Admin., Washington D.C., 1982.
- Levitus, S., M. Conkright, J. Reid, R. Najjar, A. Mantyla, Distribution of nitrate, phosphate and silicate in the world oceans, Prog. Oceanogr., 31, 245–273, 1993.
- Madec, G., M. Imbard, A global ocean mesh to overcome the North Pole singularity, Clim. Dyn., 12, 381–388, 1996.
- Madec, G., P. Delecluse, M. Imbard, C. Lévy, OPA Version 8.0 Ocean General Circulation model, Reference manual, Laboratoire d'Océanographie Dynamique et de Climatologie, Paris, France, 1997.
- Maier-Reimer, E., Geochemical cycles in an ocean general circulation model: preindustrial tracer distributions, Global Biogeochem. Cycles, 7, 645–677, 1993.
- Maier-Reimer, E., U. Mikolajewicz, A. Winguth, Future ocean uptake of CO2: interaction between ocean circulation and biology, Clim. Dyn., 12, 711–721, 1996.
- Manabe, S., R. J. Stouffer, Century-scale effects of increased atmospheric CO2 on the ocean-atmosphere system, Nature, 364, 215–218, 1993.
- Manabe, S., R. J. Stouffer, M. J. Spelman, K. Bryan, Transient response of a coupled ocean-atmosphere model to gradual changes of atmospheric CO2, Part II, Annual mean response, J. Clim., 4, 785–818, 1991.
- Martin, J. H., G. A. Knauer, D. M. Karl, W. W. Broenkow, VERTEX: Carbon cycling in the northeast Pacific, Deep Sea Res., 34, 267–285, 1987.
- Matear, R. J., A. Hirst, Climate change feedback on the future oceanic CO2 uptake, Tellus, Set. B, 51B, 722–733, 1999.
- Najjar, R. G., J. L. Sarmiento, J. R. Toggweiler, Downward transport and fate of organic matter in the ocean: Simulations with a general circulation model, Global Biogeochem. Cycles, 6, 45–76, 1992.
- Sadourny, R., K. Laval, January and July performances of the LMD general circulation model, New Perspectives in Climate Modeling A. Berger, 173–198, Elsevier, New York, 1984.
- Sarmiento, J. L., C. Le Quéré, Oceanic carbon dioxide uptake in a model of century-scale global warming, Science, 274, 1346–1350, 1996.
- Sarmiento, J. L., T. M. C. Hughes, R. J. Stouffer, S. Manabe, Simulated response of the ocean carbon cycle to anthropogenic climate warming, Nature, 393, 245–249, 1998.
- Six, K. D., E. Maier-Reimer, Effects of plankton dynamics on seasonal carbon fluxes in an ocean general circulation model, Global Biogeochem. Cycles, 10, 559–583, 1996.
- Suess, E., Particulate organic carbon flux in the ocean-surface productivity and oxygen utilization, Nature, 288, 260–263, 1980.
- Terray, L., S. Valcke, A. Piancentini, The OASIS coupler user guide, version 2.3, Centre Européen de Recherche et de Formation Avancée pour le Calcul Scientifique, Toulouse, France, 1999.
- Yamanaka, Y., E. Tajika, The role of the vertical fluxes of particulate organic matter and calcite in the oceanic carbon cycle: studies using an ocean biogeochemical general circulation model, Global Biogeochem. Cycles, 10, 361–382, 1996.